Toronto Blue Jays: Where they stand in the AL East after acquiring Daulton Varsho

Have the Blue Jays changed the pecking order in the AL East?

While the Blue Jays have certainly had an active and so far successful offseason, the Yankees have spent close to $600M since November; re-signing AL MVP Aaron Judge (nine years, $360M), adding a co-ace to their rotation in Carlos Ródon (six years, $162M), while also bringing back both 1B Anthony Rizzo (two years, $40M) and reliever Tommy Kahnle (two years, $11.5M).

The oddsmakers still favor New York over the Blue Jays to win the 2023 AL East pennant, and for Houston to defend their 2022 ALCS title again in 2023. But that still puts Toronto’s odds ahead of Tampa Bay, as well as the other ALDS teams this year in Cleveland and Seattle. Perhaps the projected Yankee rotation of Gerrit Cole, Ródon, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas gives them a slight betting edge over Toronto, which is expected to start Berríos (highest ERA amongst qualified starters in 2022) and one of the ineffective Mitch White and Yusei Kikuchi more than 40% of the time next season. The Yankees also return their 2022 offense which hit 254 home runs and scored 807 runs in 2022. They will also get a boost from star reliever Michael King and infielder DJ LeMahieu both returning from season ending injuries.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been idle either. They’ve signed free agent starter Zach Eflin to a three-year, $40M deal to join a starting rotation that will see a full return by former ace Tyler Glasnow, and already features ace Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. Taj Bradley is one of the top pitching prospects in MLB, and they have enviable, high-ceiling starting depth in Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming.

The Baltimore Orioles are also ascendant given they’ll add the No. 1 prospect in baseball in Gunnar Henderson, as well as the top pitching prospect in Grayson Rodriguez to a roster that already includes the runner-up in the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year vote in switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman. They’ve also signed starter Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10M deal, traded for catching depth in James McCann from the Mets, and added righty Mychal Givens to their bullpen on a one-year, $5M contract. Core players like 28 year old RF Anthony Santander and 1B (noted Jays killer) Ryan Mountcastle, who is still only 25 years old, continue to improve.

Transforming from a team that scored 775 runs to a more defensive squad

Clearly the Blue Jays front office has targeted defensive upgrades and run prevention this offseason. They potentially could trot out a lineup full of Gold Glovers including starter José Berríos, C Danny Jansen, 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 2B Whit Merrifield, 3B Matt Chapman, LF Daulton Varsho and CF Kevin Kiermaier. In fact, the Blue Jays are highlighting the fact that Varsho was a Gold Glove finalist in announcing the trade.

The Jays have also now traded away or cut 41 home runs and 202 RBI from their season ending 2022 26-man roster, while adding only 34 home runs and 96 RBI back to the lineup via the Kiermaier signing and the Varsho trade. They’ve also just traded six years of team control of their top prospect - and the top catching prospect in all of MLB - in 22-year-old Gabriel Moreno for four years of control of Daulton Varsho. In fact, Moreno was the top ranked prospect in all of baseball in the July 2022 Baseball America updated ranking.

Moreno’s scouting report per Baseball America (subscription required) notes he has the potential to be a franchise catcher, saying he is an “advanced receiver with a plus throwing arm, and a contact over power approach that’s seen him produce .300 or better averages at every level. Moreno is a .315 career MiLB hitter and he bettered that, hitting .319, in his MLB debut in 2022.” He was also probably the Jays second best contact hitter in his rookie season, striking out only 11% of the time versus Alejandro Kirk’s 10.7%.

So it’s been a radical transformation so far this offseason for this Blue Jays club. They have traded away offense in Hernández, Moreno and Gurriel, for a much improved outfield defense and better ‘swing and miss’ relief pitching. With the end of the shift beginning next season, having fielders who can add value as straight away defenders will be key, which is why the free agent signing of Kiermaier fits with this strategy.

Almost Ready for Opening Day

However, despite the $233M CBT payroll, some obvious holes still remain. Three left-handed hitting bench bats are gone from last year, leaving utilityman Cavan Biggio as the lone lefty bench bat. Potential solutions there like Michael Brantley are off the board, although the Jays could look at recently released left-handed batters like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer as potential experienced (and cheap!) bench bats given the Reds (two years, $22M left on the Moustakas contract) and Padres (three years, $39M left on their Hosmer contract) will still be paying most of their salaries in 2023 and beyond.

And apart from Jordan Romano and potential in-house solutions like Yosver Zuleta and Nate Pearson, none of the other relievers on the current roster throw 100mph, which seemed to be a key ingredient to lock down opponents in the 2022 postseason.

There may also be an apparent payroll constraint, despite assurances from the front office that the $233M CBT threshold for 2023 would not dictate payroll. The Jays have now missed out on a number of free agents that they were targeting, including starters Justin Verlander, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney and Kyle Gibson, reliever Kenley Jansen, as well as outfielders Cody Bellinger, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto. They dumped Gurriel's $5.8M salary when they added Varsho’s projected $2.8M arbitration award.

Yankees and Astros remain the class of the American League

The Blue Jays improved their 26-man roster by adding Daulton Varsho to the mix. Not only does he help to improve the outfield defense dramatically, but by also subtracting the right-handed hitting Gurriel, it also helps to balance out the lineup with his power-hitting left-handed bat. The cost was indeed steep as Gabriel Moreno has franchise catcher potential, but the Jays are much closer to challenging the Yankees for the AL East pennant today than they were yesterday.

They still have some work to do to be ready for Opening Day and to catch New York and Houston, as well as to separate themselves from Tampa, Seattle and others in the American League. However, at this stage it will be minor additions like higher ceiling starting pitching depth (which could be solved internally assuming they don’t trade Ricky Tiedemann), bench depth (Jurickson Profar? Hosmer? Moustakas?), and a few flame-throwing, high-leverage relievers (Zulueta and Pearson?). This is a much more competitive roster than the one that lost the 2022 ALWC series in such heartbreaking fashion to Seattle this past October. Let’s go Jays!