Toronto Blue Jays: Potential free agent targets for next offseason

With only 53 days until pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin, it may seem early to consider potential Blue Jays free agent targets for next offseason. But with some big names likely available, its never too early to dream!

The 2023-24 free agent class is headed by 2021 AL MVP Shohei Ohtani, sweet lefty-swinging 3B Rafael Devers, current Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman, Dodgers ace Julio Urías, as well as stars with player options for 2024 like Mets ace Max Scherzer, Padres 3B Manny Machado and Tigers SS Javier Báez.

MLB Trade Rumors has compiled an early list sorted by position here. There is also a searchable screening tool from Spotrac here. The list will change as these players and clubs negotiate extensions or excercise player, mutual or club options before free agency starts.

Given how targeted recent free agent additions to the Blue Jays have been in their current competitive window, it’s probably unlikely they’ll splurge in free agency like the Mets, Yankees and Rangers. The Mets have spent $717.2M so far and counting, taking their projected 2023 competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll to $390M before any luxury tax penalties as per RosterResource!

The Yankees aren’t far behind, adding $573.5M in free agency, including 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge and co-ace Carlos Ródon, which takes their 2023 CBT payroll to the $292M range before taxes, just below the top luxury tax penalty tier of $293M this year. The Rangers have added $264M in free agent contracts, including new ace Jacob deGrom for five years/$185M.

The Blue Jays haven’t been wallflowers, spending $72M to take their projected 2023 CBT payroll to the $233M luxury tax threshold. They’ve added starter Chris Bassitt on a three-year/$63M deal, as well as CF Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year/$9M deal.

Potential Blue Jays Free Agent Targets Next Offseason

With some big names in their final contract year with Toronto, the Blue Jays will surely have some needs to fill again next offseason. LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, 3B Matt Chapman, CF Kevin Kiermaier, 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, and relievers Yimi García ($6M club option for 2024 if he pitches in 49 games or 49 innings this year) and Anthony Bass are all pending free agents after the 2023 season.

With potentially sixteen arbitration-eligible Blue Jays next year, including core stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Jordan Romano, it’s likely their payroll will exceed the $237M CBT threshold in 2024 even before any long term extensions for those players.

Combine that with the largest free agent contracts in Blue Jays history, like 6 years/$150M ($25M average annual value or AAV) for George Springer and 5 years/$110M for Kevin Gausman ($22M AAV), and there’s no reason to believe the Jays won’t continue spending big to address needs.

With internal options already on the 40-man roster to replace many of their pending free agents, the Jays don’t necessarily have to chase big names. Flamethrowing, ‘swing and miss’ relievers like Yosver Zulueta and Nate Pearson could replace Bass and García. The 2B platoon of Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio, plus emerging prospects Addison Barger and 3B/SS Orelvis Martinez are up next if the Jays decide against the $18M mutual option on Merrifield. Ryu could be replaced by top Blue Jays prospect Ricky Tiedemann if he continues his meteoric rise through the minors.

Finding longer term solutions at 3B, LF and for the pitching staff are likely to be the key needs for the Blue Jays next offseason. While we can dream about Shohei Ohtani, who would solve for both starting pitching and OF depth, it’s unlikely the Blue Jays will open the vault on the expected record free agent deal the 28 year old Japanese superstar is expected to earn in the $400-600M range.

Three potential options at 3B

1) Try to resign current starter Matt Chapman to an extension. Chapman will be starting his age 31 season in 2024 and will be due a raise on the $12.5M he’ll earn in 2023. Potential comparable contracts include the four-year/$92M ($23M AAV) deal that Josh Donaldson signed with the Twins in 2020, or an AAV somewhere in the $18-21M range using the Austin Riley and similarly aged Michael Conforto as references.

2) Break the bank and go for 26-year-old Red Sox superstar Rafael Devers, who is rumoured to have rejected an eight year/$168M ($21M AAV) extension offer last spring. The Athletic (subscription required) more recently suggested a deal in the seven-year/$200M range ($28.5M AAV) which would make Devers the highest paid Blue Jay unless Guerrero Jr., Manoah or Bichette beats him to it! Devers is a left-handed hitting, potential MVP. A likely more expensive splurge option would be older Padres 3B Manny Machado, who can opt out of remaining five-years/$150M ($30M AAV) on his contract after 2023.

3) Save the payroll for other needs and promote internal options like rookies Orelvis Martinez (who bats from ther right-side) and Addison Barger (LHH) to platoon at 3B in 2024.

Outfield

With Daulton Varsho and George Springer likely manning CF and RF for the next four seasons, the Jays will have to replace Kevin Kiermaier given he’ll be 34 in 2024, and could start breaking down further after hip surgery last summer. They’ll also need more outfield depth given Springer will be 34 years old in 2024, and hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2018.

The best free agent options in LF is Gold Glover Ian Happ of the Cubs, who’d be starting his age 29 season; however, Happ will not come cheap if he continues his 4.4 bWAR form of 2022. Assuming 1.0 WAR is worth $5-6M per year, his contract could be in the $20~25M AAV range. Other names of note include Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Michael A. Taylor and Kiké Hernández, who are all CF options if they prefer Springer and Varsho in the corners, or Jesse Winker, who plays LF. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., is now an Arizona Diamondback, but will be a free agent next offseason and could be resigned ahead of his age 30 season as a 4th outfield depth option

Internal OF options are slim, with Merrifield a pending free agent and Cavan Biggio a potential bubble player if Barger is MLB ready. Other outfield options on the 40-man roster include RHH Otto López, LHH Spencer Horwitz and LHH Nathan Lukes.

The highest ranked outfield prospect in the Blue Jays farm system is 20 year old Venezuelan Gabriel Martinez, who played at three levels in 2022, culminating in a promotion to the High-A Vancouver Canadians, where he slashed .324/.381/.490/.871 in 28 games and was named a 2022 Organization All-Star by MiLB. He’ll be in his age 22 season in 2024, and could be MLB ready by then if he keeps progressing.