Toronto Blue Jays: Potential free agent targets for next offseason

With only 53 days until pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin, it may seem early to consider potential Blue Jays free agent targets for next offseason. But with some big names likely available, its never too early to dream!

The 2023-24 free agent class is headed by 2021 AL MVP Shohei Ohtani, sweet lefty-swinging 3B Rafael Devers, current Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman, Dodgers ace Julio Urías, as well as stars with player options for 2024 like Mets ace Max Scherzer, Padres 3B Manny Machado and Tigers SS Javier Báez.

MLB Trade Rumors has compiled an early list sorted by position here. There is also a searchable screening tool from Spotrac here. The list will change as these players and clubs negotiate extensions or excercise player, mutual or club options before free agency starts.

Given how targeted recent free agent additions to the Blue Jays have been in their current competitive window, it’s probably unlikely they’ll splurge in free agency like the Mets, Yankees and Rangers. The Mets have spent $717.2M so far and counting, taking their projected 2023 competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll to $390M before any luxury tax penalties as per RosterResource!

The Yankees aren’t far behind, adding $573.5M in free agency, including 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge and co-ace Carlos Ródon, which takes their 2023 CBT payroll to the $292M range before taxes, just below the top luxury tax penalty tier of $293M this year. The Rangers have added $264M in free agent contracts, including new ace Jacob deGrom for five years/$185M.

The Blue Jays haven’t been wallflowers, spending $72M to take their projected 2023 CBT payroll to the $233M luxury tax threshold. They’ve added starter Chris Bassitt on a three-year/$63M deal, as well as CF Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year/$9M deal.

Potential Blue Jays Free Agent Targets Next Offseason

With some big names in their final contract year with Toronto, the Blue Jays will surely have some needs to fill again next offseason. LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, 3B Matt Chapman, CF Kevin Kiermaier, 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, and relievers Yimi García ($6M club option for 2024 if he pitches in 49 games or 49 innings this year) and Anthony Bass are all pending free agents after the 2023 season.

With potentially sixteen arbitration-eligible Blue Jays next year, including core stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Jordan Romano, it’s likely their payroll will exceed the $237M CBT threshold in 2024 even before any long term extensions for those players.

Combine that with the largest free agent contracts in Blue Jays history, like 6 years/$150M ($25M average annual value or AAV) for George Springer and 5 years/$110M for Kevin Gausman ($22M AAV), and there’s no reason to believe the Jays won’t continue spending big to address needs.

With internal options already on the 40-man roster to replace many of their pending free agents, the Jays don’t necessarily have to chase big names. Flamethrowing, ‘swing and miss’ relievers like Yosver Zulueta and Nate Pearson could replace Bass and García. The 2B platoon of Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio, plus emerging prospects Addison Barger and 3B/SS Orelvis Martinez are up next if the Jays decide against the $18M mutual option on Merrifield. Ryu could be replaced by top Blue Jays prospect Ricky Tiedemann if he continues his meteoric rise through the minors.

Pitching Depth

Outside of 3B, this will probably be the area the Blue Jays front office will be most willing to spend on in free agency next offseason. Certainly Ryu should be replaced, and depending on where Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White find themselves this season after being ineffective in 2022, there could be a need for more.

The 2022 Blue Jays Minor League Pitcher of the Year and top ranked prospect Ricky Tiedemann will be 21 in 2024 and could certainly be ready if he continues his rapid ascent up the prospect rankings (currently #28 in the Baseball America top 100). MiLB’s Rob Terranova recently had the following to say on the big lefty; “Equipped with three plus-pitches: a mid-to-high 90s fastball, a sweeping slider and a changeup, the top Blue Jays prospect (MLB No. 33) didn’t just climb three levels of Toronto’s system, he absolutely dominated them. The 20-year-old made 18 starts... and compiled a 2.17 ERA with 29 walks and 117 strikeouts over 78 2/3 innings. His 17% whiff rate led all starters in the organization by a mile and he finished.. with a combined .149 average against.”

There are some great potential free agent starter solutions as well, led by Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Mike Clevinger, Andrew Heaney (who can opt out of his contract), Sean Manaea (who can opt out as well), Frankie Montas, Chris Flexen and Jordan Montgomery. The Rockies have a $16M club option on Germán Márquez, who’d be in his age 29 season. And Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez can opt out of the remaining three-years/$49M on his contract going in to his age 31 season.

Assuming the Blue Jays decide not to pursue resigning Ryu, there are also some other potentially really intriguing ‘top of the rotation’ options. Dodger ace Julio Urías will only be 27, and has already put up 13.2 bWAR across his first seven seasons, including 4.9 in 2022. Padres ace Yu Darvish will be a free agent entering his age 37 season. Mets ace Max Scherzer can opt out of remaining $43.33M contract as well going in to his age 39 season.

Or they could reunite with former Blue Jays like Noah Syndergaard (who’ll be 31) or Marcus Stroman, who can opt out of one-year/$21M remaining on his Cubs contract going in to his age 33 year. Another intriguing option is Jack Flaherty, who’s been snakebitten by injuries the past three seasons, but will only be 28 with a cumulative bWAR of 9.3 across six MLB seasons.

Lastly there are some flamethrowing relievers with absolutely filthy ‘swing and miss’ stuff should the Blue Jays front office decide to alter their strategy and invest more in a shutdown bullpen. They include Phillies 2022 postseason star southpaw José Alvarado, who’ll be 29, as well as current Padres closer Josh Hader, going in to his age 30 season. Alvarado brings 100mph heat, and struck out 37.9% of the batters he faced in 2022 (14.3 Ks/9). Hader’s strikeout rate fell from his career average over 15 Ks/9 to 12.4 Ks/9 in 2022, but he still struck out 37% of batters he faced and saved 36 games in the regular season, plus four games in the playoffs.

From the right side, Joe Jiménez, who was recently acquired by the Braves for two prospects after averaging 12.2 Ks/9 in 2022 after striking out 33.3% of the batters he faced, will also be available. He throws a 96mph fastball, and will only be 29-years-old in 2024.

Assuming a willingness to spend above the luxury tax threshold in the 2023-24 offseason, the crystal ball portends the likely resigning of Matt Chapman, a new left fielder, and some solid starting pitching and relief arms to replace Ryu and Bass, and upgrade the MLB starting pitching depth from Kikuchi and White. Thankfully there are some fantastic free agent options for the Blue Jays to pursue. Indeed, these are heady times to be a Jays fan as there appear to be in their ‘World Series or bust’ window of contention.