Toronto Blue Jays: Free agent market is sizzling, who’s left for the Jays?

With MLB’s 2022 Winter Meetings in San Diego this week, the number of free agent signings has reached a frenzied pace. As of this writing, 44 free agents have already signed deals worth a combined $1.9 billion so far this offseason, headlined by monster deals for Yankees OF and AL MVP Aaron Judge (nine years, $360 million), new Phillies SS Trea Turner (11 years, $300 million), and new Texas ace Jacob deGrom (five years, $185 million). That figure doesn’t include the reported five-year, $90 million guaranteed deal that Japanese star OF Masataka Yoshida apparently agreed to on Wednesday. The average free agent contract so far has been for 2.4 years and $44 million total value.

The Toronto Blue Jays have so far been unlucky in their free agent pursuits, highlighted by starter Kyle Gibson passing up the same one-year, $10 million offer made by Toronto to sign instead with the Baltimore Orioles. The Jays have also been mentioned in relation to starters Justin Verlander, Andrew Heaney and Jameson Taillon, as well as reliever Kenley Jansen and CF Cody Bellinger, who have all signed with other teams. All of their other AL East peers have been active this week signing and trading for players.

So Which Players Are Still Available to Improve the Jays?

Left-Handed Hitting Outfielders

The need for a power-hitting left-handed bat to balance out the Jays lineup has been clearly defined as necessary to improve this club’s postseason chances following the Teoscar Hernández trade last month. A number of LHH OFs have agreed to deals already, including the above mentioned Masataka Yoshida, Joc Pederson, who accepted the San Francisco Giants $19.65 million qualifying offer (QO), and Cody Bellinger, who signed a one year, $17.5 million deal with the Chicago Cubs.

Remaining LHH free agent options in CF include Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Kiermaier. Should the Jays decide to keep George Springer in CF instead of moving him to right to reduce the wear and tear on his body, they could also look at left-handed hitters Joey Gallo or Michael Conforto in RF. Trading Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in a package for starting pitching or a CF like the switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds or Dalton Varsho might make sense if they were were able to sign one of Michael Brantley or Andrew Benintendi for LF, But those trades would both be costly in terms of the likely drain on an already bottom third ranked farm system.

Further, with the St. Louis Cardinals signing free agent catcher Willson Contreras to a five year, $87.5 million contract, it appears less likely that the Cards might be a trade destination for one of the Blue Jays three catchers. One of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno in a deal for switch-hitting OF Dylan Carlson or LHH RF Lars Nootbaar looked good on paper, but now seems less likely.

High Leverage Bullpen Arms

As the 2022 playoffs showed, hard throwing, swing-and-miss high leverage relievers are a key ingredient in the World Series-winning recipe. Lockdown relievers Bryan Abreu, Héctor Neris and Rafael Montero were all hard throwing setup men for Houston closer Ryan Pressly. Philadelphia countered with Seranthony Domínguez, Andrew Bellatti and José Alvarado setting up their closer David Robertson.

The free agent market for relievers has been scorching hot this offseason, with closer Edwin Díaz agreeing to a five-year, $102 million deal to return to the Mets. The Boston Red Sox have already spent $49.5 million adding two such free agent arms this week in Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, both signed to two year deals.

Remaining names of interest include lefties Taylor Rogers, Zack Britton, Andrew Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore and Aroldis Chapman. Right-handed relievers include Craig Kimbrel, Corey Knebel, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Michael Fulmer, David Robertson, Seth Lugo and Adam Ottavino.

The Jays have also been linked to former Cardinals Closer Alex Reyes, who spent all of 2022 on the IL and then was non-tendered after the season. He’s had multiple structural issues with his arm, including Tommy John surgery in 2017, and shoulder surgeries in both 2020 and 2022. While GM Ross Atkins has never shied away from rebound candidates, he may want to avoid any further comparisons with the failed Kirby Yates signing.

Additional trades for high leverage relievers are also available, with Atlanta acquiring hard throwing set-up man Joe Jiménez from the Tigers for two prospects. Certainly the Teoscar
Hernández trade should give the Blue Jays more payroll flexibility to add players.

With such clearly defined needs and increasingly limited options, Jays fans are understandably disappointed with each player of interest dropping off the free agent and trade boards. Team president Mark Shapiro stated unequivocally at the Winter Meetings that the Blue Jays were ready to spend this offseason, saying, “It’s not an obstacle for us. It’s not what will limit us. We’ll budget and we’ll have a budget that we limit to. But the CBT is not going to be what sets our budget.”

With more than two months left before spring training and nearly four months before Opening Day next March 30th, there is lots of time to address the team’s needs. As assistant GM Joe Sheehan said Wednesday at the Winter Meetings on the team's lack of moves so far. “I think there’s a lot of good players that are still free agents. There’s a lot of good players that are available in trade. I think we’re in a fortunate position where we don’t have 16 holes to fill."