Tigers’ playoff turnaround further proves Blue Jays should be held to higher standard

Tigers and Royals massive turnarounds puts pressure on Blue Jays this offseason

Kansas City spent $100M on seven free agents last offseason, signed their emerging MVP-candidate Bobby Witt Jr. to a massive 11-year, $289M extension, and were buyers at the July Trade Deadline. That’s propelled them to a Passan Award for teams and players “who did cool things” in 2024, with the Royals winning the coveted “Biggest Surprise” category.

They also made a 180-degree turn from a 106-loss season in 2023 to a Wild Card this year. But their playoff odds were solidly above 50% from mid-May through mid-June, and stayed there since late July.

With over $60M in contracts dropping off from the Blue Jays’ Opening Day payroll, that’s certainly one blueprint for the Toronto front office on how to turn things around this make-or-break offseason.

The Tigers and Blue Jays were both stuck below 1% playoff odds after they sold their players on expiring contracts at the July 30 Deadline. Since then, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal went 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 10 starts and 62 innings. Rookie Keider Montero went 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA is 10 starts and 54 innings since Flaherty was dealt to the Dodgers for two prospects.

Surprisingly, the Blue Jays had better starting pitching than Detroit though, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Bowden Francis combining to go 16-8 with a 2.37 ERA over 29 starts and 182 innings since the Trade Deadline.

Even more surprising is the fact that Toronto outscored Detroit 224-223 and hit more home runs than them at 55-50 since then. So what explains the wildly different outcomes in terms of how the rest of their seasons played out, with Detroit advancing to the post season and Toronto sputtering to a last place finish in the AL East?

If you guessed relief pitching, you’re partly right. Toronto’s bullpen blew 10 saves and lost 12 games in 179 innings pitched since July 30. Detroit’s bullpen, which logged more innings as a result of using an opener and a guy more often, blew 8 saves and lost 13 games in 288 innings over the same stretch. But they also won 22 games and posted a 2.80 ERA and 3.55 FIP to Toronto’s 4.57 ERA and 4.68 FIP.

The other huge contrast has been the play of Detroit’s younger players. Given the opportunity to play more after the Deadline, players like Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling, Riley Greene and Colt Keith have stepped up and seized the moment.

In addition to rookie starter Keider Montero and 27-year-old likely AL Cy Young winner Skubal, relievers Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter, Brenan Hanifee, Will Vest, Beau Brieske, Sean Guenther and closer Jason Foley have been outstanding.

All of them are under 30-years of age. In fact, Detroit features MLB’s youngest roster at an average age of 26.3-years. Toronto’s current roster is almost two full years older on average. Detroit has done what Mark Shapiro initially promised Blue Jays fans after his hiring; they’ve produced waves of MLB-ready talent from a highly ranked farm system.

To add insult to injury for Blue Jays fans, Detroit recently called up the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, 22-year-old Jackson Jobe, who features a wipeout slider that is reminscient of Dave Stieb nastiness. He also topped out at 99.3 mph in his first MLB inning last Wednesday.

He was promoted from a Tigers farm system that MLB Pipeline ranked No. 6 overall in their midseason update, with five top 100 prospects including Jobe. That compares to zero top 100 prospects in the No. 24 ranked Blue Jays farm system… and Detroit graduated Colt Keith this year.

Recent Blue Jays additions like Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido come up short in comparison to Keith and Greene given Wagner’s injury and Loperfido’s struggles hitting the fastball. Top hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez whiffed his opportunity to play at the big league level following an 80-game PED suspension.

And Toronto’s farm system couldn’t produce anyone like Montero, Holton or Foley to step up when Alek Manoah and Jordan Romano were injured, and Erik Swanson and others were ineffective.

Meanwhile, Toronto has a competitive balance (“luxury tax”) payroll somewhere between $236M ~ $240M for 2024, while Detroit sits at $114M. Rookie Colt Keith signed a 6-year contract extension covering his arbitration eligible years through the 2029 season… before he’d ever even had an MLB at bat.

Detroit has club options on Keith for the 2030, 2031 and 2032 seasons, and the total contract could be worth $82M over nine years if all of the options are escalated and exercised. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette will now both cost considerably more than that if they sign extensions to stay with Toronto.

Baseball fans from SW Ontario likely to visit Comerica if Tigers advance

Yes, the Tigers were the bane of my September 1987 existence, sweeping the Blue Jays in Detroit on the final weekend that season to take the AL East by 2 games… after Toronto had been in first place by 3½ games over Detroit with a week left to play… before losing seven in a row.

But let’s let bygones be bygones: this was an incredible turnaround by a special young group in Detroit, and serves as a reminder to baseball fans just how fickle the game can be. But it should also remind Blue Jays fans how magical and inspiring a plucky team — playing like they have nothing to lose — can be.

Comerica Park in downtown Detroit is one of the best stadiums to watch a major league ballgame, so if the Tigers can get through the ALWC on the road against Houston, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see baseball fans from southwestern Ontario make the pilgrimage to cheer them on in the ALDS against the Guardians.

Given the Blue Jays only came into existence in 1977, many old timers are still Tigers fans. Detroit also had a Double-A minor league affiliate in London, Ontario from 1989 to 1993.

And while we’re at it, imagine the storylines if the Tigers advance to play the Rob Thomson-led Phillies in the World Series? Thomson grew up in nearby Corunna, Ontario, right across the St. Clair River from Michigan and less than 120 kilometers from downtown Detroit.

He was a catcher and third baseman in the Tigers organization from 1985 to 1988, and was a minor league coach for the Double-A London Tigers in 1989. He managed Philadelphia to their first NL East title in 13 years this season after guiding them to the playoffs two straight seasons as a Wild Card and losing the 2022 World Series 4-2 to Houston.