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The case for and against the Blue Jays making a Qualifying Offer to Matt Chapman
He accepts it, and fans get another year of his Platinum Glove at third base; he rejects it, and the Jays get a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round.
According to Joel Sherman of the NY Post, Major League Baseball’s Qualifying Offer (QO) will increase from $19.65 million last November to a new record high of $20.5 million for pending 2023-24 free agents.
MLB and the MLB Players Association will agree to the number within 10 days after the end of the 2023 regular season, and the figure is based off of the mean salary of the 125 highest player salaries in 2023.
MLB defines the QO system here: “In the qualifying offer system, clubs wishing to receive compensatory Draft picks for the loss of a free agent can make a one-year "qualifying offer," worth the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players, to their impending free agents prior to the onset of free agency if and only if:
1. That player has never received a qualifying offer previously in his career.
2. That player spent the entire season on that team's roster (in-season acquisitions are ineligible).”
The NY Post article also notes that qualifying offers, “have been extended to 124 players in its history and just 13 of them have accepted that one-year offer.” Of the 14 players who were tendered QOs following last season, only Joc Pederson (Giants) and Martín Pérez (Rangers) accepted them.
The current Toronto Blue Jays front office has tendered QOs in the past, most famously to José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación following the 2016 season, to starter Marco Estrada after the 2015 season, and to both Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray following the 2021 season. They declined to tender offers to Steven Matz after 2021 and Ross Stripling after 2022, to name a few who might also have been under consideration.
Hyun-Jin Ryu was the only player to accept the $17.9M QO after the 2018 season, when he decided to return for one more season with the Dodgers. Brandon Belt also accepted the $18.4M QO to return for one year to the Giants in 2022. So because they’ve both already received a QO previously, they are ineligible to receive another one from Toronto. Ace Kevin Gausman also previously bet on himself, accepting an $18.9M QO from the Giants for the 2021 season; Marcus Stroman did the same with the Mets that year.
The case for a QO to Matt Chapman
With Ryu and Belt ineligible, the only likely candidate for a qualifying offer among the pending Blue Jays free agents is 30-year old 3B Matt Chapman, who appears open to returning to Toronto. MLB ranks him as the third best impending free agent this offseason behind Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.
He’s coming off a two-year, $25M (AAV $12.5M) contract, and is due a big raise going in to his age 31 season. ESPN projects he’ll get anywhere from $80~150M in free agency, with the seven-year, $175M contract Marcus Semien signed with Texas ahead of the 2022 season as a ‘high-water mark’.
MLB Network insider Mark Feinsand notes that “Chapman’s home run total is down this year (17 in 140 games), but his .330 on-base percentage is his highest since '19, and he rank[ed] in the AL's top five with 39 doubles. Before missing 15 games with a right middle finger sprain late this season, Chapman was on pace to finish with an fWAR of more than 4.0 in 2023, a mark he has reached in each of his previous four full seasons since '18. The third-base free-agent market is thin this winter, putting Chapman in position to cash in with a nice deal.” The only other likely 3B free agent that compares with Chapman is Jeimer Candelario, who turns 30 in November.
Chapman finished 2023 with a 3.5 fWAR, 110 wRC+, OPS+ of 108, and his defensive metrics were again Platinum Glove-level outstanding: a total Defensive Runs Saved above average of +12, and Outs Above Average of +5, which ranked ninth overall in MLB for third baseman and fourth in the American League behind Maikel Garcia, Eugenio Suárez and José Ramírez.
Gold Glove plays by Matt Chapman. 👏 pic.twitter.com/qNXdOwXpef
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 2, 2023
While it sounds like the Blue Jays front office may be ready to let Chapman go, by tendering him a QO, they would at least receive a compensatory draft pick if they do lose him as a free agent. The New York Yankees and NY Mets are both rumoured to be interested in Chapman, with the Yankees in need of someone to man the hot corner after releasing Josh Donaldson and trading away Gio Urshela.
Because the Blue Jays do not receive revenue sharing and exceeded the luxury-tax salary threshold in the 2023 season, a compensatory pick if Chapman were to reject their QO would come after the fourth round in next summer’s amateur draft. That would likely be a pick somewhere in the mid-130s overall.
The case against tendering a QO
The case against making a QO really only revolves around if the front office thinks Chapman will accept it, and they don’t want to block some of their top infield prospects like Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger from a promotion to the major league club in 2024.
However, the 2023 season as a whole was a reminder that going with a defense-only approach doesn't promise a deep postseason run. The club's complete lack of offense in the AL Wild Card Series led to their elimination from the playoffs with little to no fight. Chapman's streaky bat is nice to have in the lineup while he's on, but when he's off, he's a virtual black hole.
Any decision made wouldn’t be driven by payroll considerations, given Mark Shapiro says the 2024 payroll won’t be dramatically different from the level in 2023.
#BlueJays don't expect a dramatically different payroll setup for 2024 per Mark Shapiro, suggesting Jays can spend somewhat freely this winter as opportunities emerge
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) October 12, 2023
Chapman is likely seeking a longer-term contract to see him through his late thirties. While the Blue Jays could offer a longer term contract as well, like they did with Encarnación, they also have to work with their young, homegrown core on long term contract extensions. Would a $100M+ deal for Chapman make it harder to extend Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and others?
Regardless, even if he did accept the QO, $20.5M for another year of Matt Chapman in his age 31 season does not sound like a negative. He would bring back his Platinum Glove, stability and continuity, something Mark Shapiro cited as important when he said Ross Atkins would be back in 2024.
Chapman would also solidify a relatively young Jays infield, and might help ease the transition to some of the younger prospects like Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz, Leo Jimenez, Martinez, Barger, Cade Doughty and Tucker Toman. He would also be betting on himself for an even bigger free agent contract next year, and what’s not to like about that?