The Blue Jays have some interesting arbitration decisions to make this offseason

As we inch closer and closer to all of the fun that comes with the Major League Baseball offseason, MLB Trade Rumors has released their annual Projected Arbitration Salaries list. For some, this may not mean much, but for baseball afficionados, this is one of the more highly anticipated pieces in early-offseason coverage.

What is arbitration and how does it work? The easiest way to describe the process is that players who have three or more years of big league service time but less than six years get to negotiate their contracts for the upcoming seasons. Players and clubs will use comparable players who signed contracts in recent years and it can result in said player either receiving a pay raise or a pay cut.

If the two sides do not come to a formal agreement, the case will be presented to a panel of arbitrators whose job is to side with either the player or the organization. The arbitrators do not pick a figure between the two proposed salaries, they will either side with the player and his representatives or the team.

Salaries are not always negotiated in single-year form. For instance, Bo Bichette agreed to a multi-year contract this past offseason that essentially bought out the remaining arbitration years tied to his name. Now, he does not need to go through this yearly process and has a set salary. Technically, this is not a traditional "contract extension", as the deal did not add any years to his deal, it just established what he'll be making so he does not have to worry about yearly arb battles.

There are also cases where teams do not wish to offer a contract to players who are arbitration eligible. If a club decides not to offer a contract, the player will be "non-tendered", which results in them becoming a free agent at the deadline.

Here is a list of Blue Jays players who are up for arbitration this offseason, and what MLBTR predicts they will land:

• Cavan Biggio, $3.7M
• Génesis Cabrera, $1.4M
• Adam Cimber, $3.2M
• Santiago Espinal, $2.5M
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., $20.4M
• Danny Jansen, $5.2M
• Alejandro Kirk, $2.6M
• Tim Mayza, $3.3M
• Nate Pearson, $800K
• Trevor Richards, $2.4M
• Jordan Romano, $7.7M
• Erik Swanson, $2.7M
• Daulton Varsho, $5.5M

Let's break down the list and determine which players are locks to come back and who could be non-tender candidates.

The guarantees

Let me begin by saying that most of the arb-eligible players for the Blue Jays are locks to be tendered contracts. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bring home a major raise, but let's face it; he's earned it. His not quite hitting expectations and boneheaded baserunning errors aside, the guy is a legitimate franchise cornerstone who is not going anywhere. Pay the man.

Beyond him, both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are projected to earn some well-deserved paydays as well. Jansen represents an old-school playstyle that consists of solid defense and a ton of home runs. If it weren't for a slew of injuries this year, he could've put together a truly special season. Kirk is up for a Gold Glove Award and had a strong season in his own right. Having such a strong catching tandem is a treat for the Blue Jays, one they should cherish for as long as they have it.

Cavan Biggio's second-half performance alone is enough for him to be brought back. While his $3.7M arb prediction is nearly a million-dollar raise, he's earned it. The 28-year-old showed some serious signs of life this year and could finally be on the cusp of a full season of consistent playing time next year.

The last position player who is a lock is Daulton Varsho. The expectations put on his shoulders have always been massive, but he did a solid job in his first year with the Blue Jays. Not only is he also a Gold Glove finalist in left field, but he has a high baseball IQ and is capable of hitting 20 home runs a year. He brings a ton of different tools to the table and is likely going to be around for a while, regardless of how Gabriel Moreno does in Arizona.

The group of pitchers here is strong as well. Génesis Cabrera, Tim Mayza, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are the only arms that are locks to be brought back, although some of the others feel likely to return. Mayza's breakout performance this year is one of the more underrated ones in the majors and he should continue to be brought back by the Blue Jays for as long as he's producing. Romano and Swanson formed a lethal back-end duo and are expected to fill the exact same roles in 2024.

On the bubble

Santiago Espinal, Nate Pearson and Trevor Richards are the three arb-eligible players who have some pretty strong arguments both in favor and against them being tendered contracts.

Espinal in particular has shown promise here and there, especially in the last 51 plate appearances of the 2023 season when he hit .375 with a 152 wRC+. He plays decent defense all over the infield and made the 2022 All-Star Game for a reason, even if he isn't quite going to continue to be that player moving forward. If we had to pick one way or another, let's say he is brought back for another year.

Pearson, the Blue Jays' former top prospect, is arb-eligible for the first time in his career and, like Espinal, feels likely to be coming back. The 27-year-old (wow, time flies) made it into 35 games this past season and had his fair share of ups and downs. His 4.85 ERA is a bit inflated by some rough outings, but he continued to show some issues when it comes to command and keeping the ball in the ballpark. His projected $800K salary is dirt cheap, so he'll be back even if it's just to be another depth arm in the high minors.

Then there's Richards, who at one point this past year was to be viewed as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. A trip to the injured list in the second half of the year resulted in him returning as a whole new pitcher, and not in a good way. In 30 first-half games, he had a 3.02 ERA with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. In 26 second-half outings? An ERA of 8.04 with a ton of walks and some seriously hard contact being given up. Sure, this could fully be because of his injuries, but he could also just have been regressing down to what he actually is as a pitcher. Like Espinal, if we're forced to pick one way or another, he'll be back in 2024.