The Blue Jays have some interesting arbitration decisions to make this offseason

The guarantees

Let me begin by saying that most of the arb-eligible players for the Blue Jays are locks to be tendered contracts. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bring home a major raise, but let's face it; he's earned it. His not quite hitting expectations and boneheaded baserunning errors aside, the guy is a legitimate franchise cornerstone who is not going anywhere. Pay the man.

Beyond him, both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are projected to earn some well-deserved paydays as well. Jansen represents an old-school playstyle that consists of solid defense and a ton of home runs. If it weren't for a slew of injuries this year, he could've put together a truly special season. Kirk is up for a Gold Glove Award and had a strong season in his own right. Having such a strong catching tandem is a treat for the Blue Jays, one they should cherish for as long as they have it.

Cavan Biggio's second-half performance alone is enough for him to be brought back. While his $3.7M arb prediction is nearly a million-dollar raise, he's earned it. The 28-year-old showed some serious signs of life this year and could finally be on the cusp of a full season of consistent playing time next year.

The last position player who is a lock is Daulton Varsho. The expectations put on his shoulders have always been massive, but he did a solid job in his first year with the Blue Jays. Not only is he also a Gold Glove finalist in left field, but he has a high baseball IQ and is capable of hitting 20 home runs a year. He brings a ton of different tools to the table and is likely going to be around for a while, regardless of how Gabriel Moreno does in Arizona.

The group of pitchers here is strong as well. Génesis Cabrera, Tim Mayza, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are the only arms that are locks to be brought back, although some of the others feel likely to return. Mayza's breakout performance this year is one of the more underrated ones in the majors and he should continue to be brought back by the Blue Jays for as long as he's producing. Romano and Swanson formed a lethal back-end duo and are expected to fill the exact same roles in 2024.

On the bubble

Santiago Espinal, Nate Pearson and Trevor Richards are the three arb-eligible players who have some pretty strong arguments both in favor and against them being tendered contracts.

Espinal in particular has shown promise here and there, especially in the last 51 plate appearances of the 2023 season when he hit .375 with a 152 wRC+. He plays decent defense all over the infield and made the 2022 All-Star Game for a reason, even if he isn't quite going to continue to be that player moving forward. If we had to pick one way or another, let's say he is brought back for another year.

Pearson, the Blue Jays' former top prospect, is arb-eligible for the first time in his career and, like Espinal, feels likely to be coming back. The 27-year-old (wow, time flies) made it into 35 games this past season and had his fair share of ups and downs. His 4.85 ERA is a bit inflated by some rough outings, but he continued to show some issues when it comes to command and keeping the ball in the ballpark. His projected $800K salary is dirt cheap, so he'll be back even if it's just to be another depth arm in the high minors.

Then there's Richards, who at one point this past year was to be viewed as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. A trip to the injured list in the second half of the year resulted in him returning as a whole new pitcher, and not in a good way. In 30 first-half games, he had a 3.02 ERA with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. In 26 second-half outings? An ERA of 8.04 with a ton of walks and some seriously hard contact being given up. Sure, this could fully be because of his injuries, but he could also just have been regressing down to what he actually is as a pitcher. Like Espinal, if we're forced to pick one way or another, he'll be back in 2024.

Non-tender candidate(s)

There is perhaps no more of an obvious non-tender candidate than Adam Cimber is. the 33-year-old entered the 2023 season fresh off of an impressive campaign in which he made an MLB-leading 77 appearances of 2.80 ERA-ball. The quirky sidearmer has long been a durable pitcher who can regularly pitch multiple days in a row without issues.

Then 2023 hit.

This past season will go down as one to forget for Cimber. He spent a ton of time on the injured list thanks to multiple different injuries and actually did not make a single big league appearance after June 18. The right-hander struggled mightily when prior to his injury concerns, posting a 7.40 ERA with an equally unimpressive 7.47 FIP and 58 ERA+. His strikeouts were way down, his walks were way up and he, like second-half Trevor Richards, allowed entirely too much hard contact.

MLBTR predicts a miniscule raise for Cimber in arbitration ($3.2M as opposed to the $3.15M he made in 2023), which will still have him making a small amount of money overall. It's all up to the Blue Jays now, as they need to decide whether to take a three-million dollar gamble on him returning to his 2022 self.

Best case scenario, he is tendered a contract and gives the team 50~ more outings of solid ball. Worst case, he's brought back and released if he continues to struggle once the 2024 regular season comes around.