Ranking the Blue Jays pending free agents by likelihood of them re-signing

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For the upcoming offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays will have seven key members from their 2023 roster heading for free agency. Obviously not all of them will return to the Jays for the 2024 season, but at the same time, there should be a good chance that some may find themselves back with the team for another run.

What is the likelihood that the Jays re-sign some of these players, and which ones will most likely be let go?

Here, we will take a closer look at the probability in which each of these players will remain with the ballclub beyond the 2023 season.

7. Matt Chapman

Kicking things off, there’s the unpredictable Matt Chapman. Heading into his free agency year, Chapman began the year on a torrid start that saw him net both Player of the Week and Player of the Month honours in the American League in April. However, he hasn’t come close to matching that kind of production in the following months, as he had slowly regressed back to the mean to more his usual career numbers.

He may be the best defensive third baseman the Jays have had since Scott Rolen, but his inconsistency at the plate has left a lot to be desired. For the 2023 year, Chapman has hit .241 with a .755 OPS, with 63 runs scored, 15 home runs and 52 RBI. Even with his hot start to the season, he is actually on pace to finish with lower production numbers than he had in his previous year with the Jays.

With Chapman being the best available third baseman heading into free agency this offseason, he will most likely demand for a massive multi-year contract that could be in the nine-digits category. It will probably be enough to lead him right into retirement, but do the Jays want to take that gamble and put the team in a sort of financial stranglehold for the next decade? Don’t forget, if they also intend to extend both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette eventually, including Chapman in the financial bind just seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Added to the fact that with his inconsistent hitting, his contract will most likely not age well over time. As a result, it would be of the Jays’ best interest to move on from Chapman and resort to one of their internal solutions. These options could include potentially one of their up and coming prospects in Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger, or perhaps trying out even one of Ernie Clement or Davis Schneider, who have certainly performed well with the Jays this year in their abbreviated stints.

Verdict: He's already good as gone.

6. Hyun Jin Ryu

Hyun Jin Ryu has definitely been a key part of the Jays’ starting rotation during this final stretch of the season in their pursuit of the playoffs. After returning from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August, Ryu has provided the Jays with value starts in his ten games to date, keeping them in the ballgame almost every time out. This was already beyond expectations as after all, he had been out for over a year’s time, so any sort of quality pitching like this was definitely an added bonus.

To date, Ryu has posted a 3-3 record with a solid 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, along with 14 walks and 37 punchouts in 49 innings pitched. In doing so, he seems to be giving off some vibes that resembled his Cy Young-calibre type years he had back in 2019 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in 2020 when he joined the Jays in the first year of his four-year contract.

At age 36 already, Ryu will most likely be heading towards a decline in the upcoming years. Despite his impressive showing in the past few weeks for the Jays, it is hard to forget about his disappointing years in the middle part of his contract with the ballclub, along with the devastating injury that put him out for a year last season. If he intends to just re-sign for a one-year deal with incentives, there is a slight chance he could be back. But most likely he will like to have job security right into his retirement years, so he will likely be asking for a multi-year contract as a result. So after seeing what the Jays went through with him the past couple years prior, it is certainly a gamble that’s not worth taking.

Verdict: Highly unlikely he re-signs.

5. Brandon Belt

It has definitely been a whirlwind season for veteran Brandon Belt. After having one of his worst starts in his career since joining his new ballclub, Belt made the adjustments and drastically turned things around during the season, becoming the reliable and productive designated hitter that he was expected to be. Overall for 2023, he has compiled a stats line of .251/.369/.470/.839 along with 50 runs scored, 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 38 RBI.

However, he has recently ran into some injury woes by going on the 10-day IL with lumbar spine muscle spasms. Unfortunately, it occurred during the Jays’ most critical part of their schedule, and is currently still not back with the ballclub as of yet. In addition, he has also hinted about potential retirement recently in the news, so whether or not Belt wants to continue playing after this year could be the bigger question.

Belt has certainly done his part, bringing his veteran leadership and winning experience to the ballclub to help inspire the coming generation for the ballclub. However, at age 35 and with his body starting to act up recently, it could be a sign telling him that he may be approaching the end of his illustrious MLB career. Added to the fact that he is a great family man and intends to give more of his time to his family going forward, there is a high possibility that if Belt doesn’t come back during the upcoming weeks or so, we may have seen the last of Belt and his professional baseball career.

Verdict: Highly unlikely he re-signs.

4. Whit Merrifield

For Whit Merrifield, he has certainly had a renaissance year for the Jays, in that he has regained some of his prior All-Star form with his formidable play this season. He has helped fuel the Jays’ offensive attack this year, both at the plate and on the basepaths. Overall, for the 2023 season, Merrifield has hit a solid .278 with a .712 OPS, along with 64 runs scored, 27 doubles, 11 home runs, 65 RBI, and a whopping 26 stolen bases.

With the ability to play second base along with multiple positions in the outfield, Merrifield definitely provides the flexibility in the lineup that every manager would like to have. The fact that he could perform admirably as an utilityman makes him even that much more valuable in the long run.

Despite his value and versatility, Merrifield will probably not be back with the Jays following this season. At age 34, he will most likely be looking for that last long-term contract that would take him right to his twilight years by cashing in now after a huge bounce back season. In addition, after his impressive start to the season, along with his hot streak during mid-summer, he has definitely showed some signs of slowing down somewhat in the past month. Not only that, but Cavan Biggio has recently stepped up big time lately both at the plate and in the field. Biggio is slowly but surely re-establishing himself as a viable option as a starter going forward for the Jays as he can also play multiple positions in the infield and outfield just like Merrifield. Consequently, with Merrifield likely heading towards a huge pay day, and to avoid utilityman redundancy, going with Biggio once again beyond this season appears to be the most logistical choice.

Verdict: Unlikely he re-signs.

3. Jordan Hicks

One of the Jays’ biggest trade deadline acquisitions this year, Jordan Hicks has been everything the Jays needed him to be so far during his short tenure with the ballclub. Equipped with a lightning quick fastball that could hit triple digits consistently, Hicks has shown time and time again to constantly overpower opposing hitters with authority.

Since joining the Jays at the end of July, Hicks has posted a 2-2 record with four saves and seven holds, along with a career-best 2.14 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, giving up only five earned runs with five walks and 20 strikeouts over 21 innings of work in 23 appearances. In recent games, he seems to be becoming more and more like former dominant Jays reliever Duane Ward, doing his part in setting up the closer with zeroes across the board.

Hicks has certainly turned his fortunes around since leaving the struggling St. Louis Cardinals to join the Jays in their playoff run. In doing so, he has also raised his stock considerably heading into free agency as a result. Obviously, the Jays would definitely want to retain someone with the firepower of Hicks to help anchor their bullpen along with Jordan Romano in the coming years. However, with a previous contract that had an AAV of less than a million over five seasons in the big leagues, Hicks will definitely be looking for a big pay raise for 2024. If the amount is still within good range for the Jays, he will for sure be back. But if it gets blown up to epic proportions, with plenty of quality relievers available this offseason, the Jays can resort to a more affordable option in the free agent market. It basically comes down to this, the more success he has in helping the Jays make the playoffs and during the actual playoffs itself, the more likely he will just end up as a rental in the end.

Verdict: Likely he re-signs.

2. Jay Jackson

What can we say about Jay Jackson? He has definitely been a great person and a great player overall during his abbreviated stints with the Jays this season. Since pitching in his season debut for the Jays back on May 6th against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Jackson has been absolute money for the ballclub other than a three-game stretch near the middle of August. Unfortunately, the numbers game eventually caught up to him as key members from the pitching staff were returning from the IL. As a result, he was sent back to the minors on September 11th.

In his 23 appearances for the Jays, Jackson went 3-1 with a stellar 2.36 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, surrendering only seven earned runs, along with eight walks and 25 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched. He certainly got the job done more often than not without much stress and definitely deserves another shot with the big league club down the road.

Jackson had his best season ever in MLB this year with the Jays, and for someone that will be turning 36 at the end of October, he probably just wants some job security more than any big, long-term contract as he looks ahead to retirement in a few years. As a result, given his success with his current ballclub, along with the fact that he was well-liked by many during his time with the big league club, there is a great chance that the Jays will re-sign him to a reasonable deal for depth pitching for their bullpen. To be honest, at this stage of his career, Jackson will probably take anything that gives him any chance to shine once more before calling it a career.

Verdict: Highly likely he re-signs.

1. Kevin Kiermaier

One of the key acquisitions during the 2022-23 offseason, Kevin Kiermaier has turned out to be everything the Jays expected him to be and more. After an injury-plagued season with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2022, Kiermaier has rediscovered his form this year with the Jays both on the field and at the plate.

In the outfield, Kiermaier has put his elite defence on full display as he is among the team leaders in DRS with 17, sports a fielding percentage of .988, and has also five outfield assists to boot with his lethal throws coming from center field. At the plate, he has been a sparkplug for the Jays’ offence at the bottom of the lineup, compiling a .269 batting average with a strong .755 OPS, along with 56 runs scored, 20 doubles, six triples, eight home runs, 35 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 123 games played. If it weren’t for a couple minor injuries along the way, he probably could have contributed even more to the ballclub.

Kiermaier has definitely enjoyed his time with the ballclub as a whole. You can often tell his enthusiasm and love for the team from his interviews and the way he speaks in front of the media. Also, when the Rays gave up on him due to his injury woes despite being part of their franchise for his entire career, it was the Jays that showed that they still believed in him and his abilities. Just that in itself should get Kiermaier to remain with the team for two to three more years in a short-term deal. At least one thing is for sure, the Jays’ faithful would definitely want that to happen.