Predicting where each Blue Jays free agent will sign this offseason

Matt Chapman

Perhaps the most prominent free agent leaving the Jays this season, Chapman provided the ballclub with a rarity that didn’t exist ever since Scott Rolen was in town; and that's the combination of elite defence and potent offensive output at the same time. Chapman had a productive two seasons with the Jays in which he batted .234 with a .756 OPS, 149 runs scored, 66 doubles, 44 home runs and 130 RBI in 295 games played. Defensively, he also took home his fourth Gold Glove award in seven years.

However, despite his success in his overall numbers, Chapman did struggle offensively for the majority of the 2023 season outside of a blazing start to the year. As a result, it has casted some doubt on whether he could provide consistent production heading into the latter half of his career. Nevertheless, the Jays still had interest in having him back, but he turned down their qualifying offer at the end of the season to enter the free agent market.

Among his suitors, the New York Yankees would be the ideal landing spot for Chapman. The Yankees haven’t had a third baseman that could provide the right mix of power and defence since Alex Rodríguez. In addition, the Yankees have already been playing it big this offseason, trading for both Alex Verdugo and Juan Soto. They have shown in the past to not worry too much about the luxury tax, so adding another potential big contract with Chapman presents no problems for a ballclub that aims to become strong contenders once again for 2024.

Prediction: Yankees 

Whit Merrifield

After struggling for much of the 2022 season with the Kansas City Royals and with his future left in doubt, Merrifield’s bounce-back 2023 season with the Jays has helped revitalize his career. Not only did he return to form to hit effectively in various spots in the lineup throughout the season, he also received an All-Star nod as a result of his performance.

In this past season, Merrifield compiled a .272 batting average with a .700 OPS, along with 66 runs scored, 11 home runs and 67 RBI. He also added 26 stolen bases, showing that he still got the wheels despite turning 35 soon. The Jays and Merrifield had a mutual option they could have exercised, but both sides declined it, allowing him to proceed into free agency. Merrifield had previously voiced his displeasure on how certain things were run following their early playoff exit, so that could have played a role in the mutual decision.

In a recent interview with the MLB Network, Merrifield highlighted what he was looking for in terms of a potential fit with a ballclub. He revealed that his strongest position and preference is playing at second base, but was open to maintaining his positional versatility if needed. In addition, despite hitting in various parts of the batting order with the Jays in 2023, his preference is to hit near the top of the order.

Sports Illustrated indicated that both the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox would fit the bill based on those criteria. However, with the Red Sox's plans in limbo after moving on from Verdugo, Merrifield likely would want to play for a contender instead. As a result, joining the Mariners makes the most sense as he should become the team’s starting second baseman. That is because Kolten Wong had left for free agency and rookie second baseman José Caballero lacked offensive potential with his bat. Merrifield may also get his wish to hit at the top of the lineup, with star outfielder Julio Rodríguez likely hitting before or behind him forming a strong one-two punch at the top of the order.

Prediction: Mariners 

Kevin Kiermaier

After signing a one-year contract to prove his worth this past offseason, Kiermaier posted a solid year both offensively and defensively for the Jays. The Jays sorely needed an upgrade on outfield defence for 2023 and Kiermaier performed beyond expectations in that regard. During the season, he made all difficult plays look routine, along with doling out some spectacular ones just for good measure. In the end, with his .989 fielding percentage and 18 DRS, he captured his fourth Gold Glove in the process.

Kiermaier also put together an uncharacteristically strong offensive season as well, as he hit .265 with a .741 OPS, 58 runs scored, 21 doubles, 6 triples, 8 home runs, 36 RBI and 14 stolen bases. He managed to accomplish that all while batting mostly in the bottom part of the lineup. Not only that, he also became a fan favourite, along with being one of the beloved leaders in the clubhouse.

With his elite defence at play, Kiermaier would be the perfect complement to any offensive-heavy ballclub. The Yankees were the odds-on favourite to land the Gold Glover, but with their recent acquisitions of Verdugo and Soto to join Aaron Judge in the outfield, their starting trio appears to be set. As a result, the Phillies instead could be the surprising darkhorse team jumping in on the Kiermaier sweepstakes.

The Phillies are also an offensively-focused ballclub that lacked solid defence this past season. Despite rookie Johan Rojas stabilizing their outfield defence with his elite defensive abilities in center field after being called up mid-season, his bat was still not MLB-ready, as it became quite evident as he was exposed during the playoffs. In addition, The Athletic (subscription required) recently revealed that the Phillies had varying levels of confidence in having both Rojas and Brandon Marsh as everyday players for 2024. Also, by exploring external center field options, it could buy the time for Rojas if needed.

With the Phillies in win-now mode, and Rojas ultimately needing some more time to develop his bat, they may not have the time to wait. As a result, Kiermaier would be able to provide the same elite defence along with a dependable offensive bat for the Phillies as they aim to reach the postseason for a third consecutive year.

Prediction: Phillies

Brandon Belt

With the Jays looking for veteran leadership and a power left-handed bat to bolster their lineup last offseason, they took a gamble and signed Brandon Belt to a one-year contract. At first, it appeared as though it was going to turn out disastrous as Belt had one of the worst starts to the season for his career. Not only was he not providing any offensive output, but he was also striking out at close to a 50% clip during the first month of 2023. But Belt managed to turn things around to salvage a semi-productive season with the Jays. 

In 2023, Belt hit .254 with an .858 OPS, along with 53 runs scored, 19 home runs and 43 RBI in 103 games played. More importantly, he provided much-needed run production from the left side of the plate that the Jays significantly lacked in previous seasons.

However, toward the end of the regular season, Belt suggested during an interview in a Foul Territory podcast that he is pondering retirement at the conclusion of the 2023 MLB season. The main factor that he was taking into consideration on his decision was with respect to his time he had spent away from his family and how much that means to him going forward.

In addition, Belt had endured a slew of injuries in recent years, ranging from his neck, to his thumb, all the way to his knees in which he had major surgery near the end of last season. Even this past September, his back began to act up as he missed a chunk of games down the stretch for the Jays due to back spasms. So how much more can Belt’s body take in the coming years is uncertain. And with Belt’s camp extremely quiet so far this offseason, when putting all things together, the fingers seem to be pointing towards the direction of retirement more than anything right now.

Prediction: Retirement

Jordan Hicks

After acquiring the electric flamethrower from the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline, Hicks helped stabilize the Jays’ bullpen for the most part down the stretch. With Nate Pearson being sent back down to the minors in the latter parts of the season, Hicks was relied upon heavily to be the overpowering, strikeout machine for the Jays in late-inning matchups. He also displayed his versatility by playing an effective role as both the team’s setup man and closer whenever he was called upon.

Overall, Hicks performed admirably in his 25 appearances with the Jays, pitching to a 2-3 record with a stellar 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, holding opponents to a .207 batting average while giving up just 7 earned runs with 8 walks and 22 strikeouts in 24 innings of work. In doing so, he also tallied 4 saves and 7 holds in the process, helping the team lock down key victories in their successful playoff berth chase.

At just the young age of 27, Hicks has had many suitors contact him in recent weeks hoping to obtain his services. Among some of the teams in hot pursuit include the Angels, Rangers, Astros, Orioles, Red Sox, as well as his former team, the Cardinals. The Rangers are looking to repeat as champions in 2024. But the fact that they actually had the league’s 7th worst bullpen ERA in 2023, along with just a makeshift closer in José Leclerc, Hicks would be the perfect addition to their relief corps to add some established firepower to their game. Moreover, the Rangers had been active in recent years in adding big names in free agency including Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, so it is the right time for them to chalk up another one.

Prediction: Rangers

Hyun Jin Ryu

After coming back from a year-long layoff due to Tommy John surgery, many weren’t expecting too much from starter Hyun Jin Ryu. As long as he was back and healthy, and produced adequate quality starts, the Jays were more than satisfied with such a result. But instead, Ryu ended up providing a bit more to the ballclub with some much-needed stability in the back end of the rotation.

Despite struggling a bit in his final two starts of the season, Ryu’s comeback was largely deemed a success, as he pitched to a 3-3 record with a 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 14 walks and 38 strikeouts in 52 innings. In doing so, he helped accomplished what Alek Manoah failed to do for much of the season, which was giving the Jays the chance to win every time he took the mound.

However, looking back over the course of his contract with the Jays, other than the first season in which he was an AL Cy Young finalist, Ryu in large part failed to meet expectations. His tenure was most notably marred by some inconsistency and injury issues in his latter three years. Nevertheless, if he can get back to 100% strength for the upcoming season, he could still provide value as a mid-to-back end of the rotation starter for a ballclub.

With the Minnesota Twins losing both starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda to free agency, along with working on a limited budget, Ryu could be a short-term, value pickup for the team. That is because the Twins have had some success with veteran starting pitchers over the age of 29 with a solid resume in recent years, including Gray, Maeda, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda and Rich Hill. Added to the fact that the Twins’ defence ranked 4th in fielding percentage and 9th in team DRS in the entire league, it should play well with Ryu’s pitching ability in inducing balls in play.

Prediction: Twins