The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to hand the Philadelphia Phillies their fourth straight loss on Wednesday night, and they’ll have their ace on the mound to help them do it.
Kevin Gausman (9-6, 3.04 ERA) gets the ball for the Jays in this game, and he’s been lights out in 2023 – posting a Fielding Independent Pitching of 2.72.
The Phillies have one of their best arms, right-hander Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.49 ERA) on the mound, but this has been a down season for Nola by his standards.
Philly has been surging as of late, moving into the top wild card spot in the National League while the Jays are attempting to hold on to the final wild card spot in the American League.
This is a big matchup for both sides, and here’s a breakdown of how to bet on it:
Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick
All season long, Gausman has shown why he’s one of the league’s better pitchers, allowing more than three earned runs in just four of his 23 starts and ranking in the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage.
Even against a potent Phillies offense, Gausman is the pitcher to bet on in this spot for multiple reasons.
Gausman is elite at home: In 11 home starts this season, Gausman has a 2.71 ERA, striking out 100 batters in 69.2 innings of work. He has better overall numbers than Nola, but when you put him at Rogers Centre, he stands out even more.
Toronto has the better bullpen: The Blue Jays are fourth in Major League Baseball in bullpen ERA this season (3.57) ahead of the Phillies (ninth, 3.79 ERA). While the difference isn’t huge, it could come into play tonight since Nola has failed to get through more than 5.1 innings in his last three starts.
Not the same Aaron Nola: After putting up a 2.58 FIP and 3.25 ERA last season, Nola has been a much different pitcher in 2023. He has a FIP of 4.21 and his highest WHIP since the 2019 season. A big reason why is that he’s allowed 26 home runs already this season, one away from tying his career-high.
These offenses both have a ton of talent, but the pitching will be the difference on Wednesday. Toronto is the best bet to make.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.