Projected 2024 luxury tax payroll (excluding arbitration eligible players): $124,630,952
Variable costs: Toronto has only one player with a club option for next season in Chad Green ($9.0 million); Yimi García’s $6.0 million club option for 2024 has already converted to a guaranteed deal thanks to his performance over 2022-23; and. it’s unlikely that they will excercise the $18 million mutual option with Whit Merrifield versus a $500,000 buyout.
Arbitration eligible players: The overall payroll will increase based on what the arbitration eligible players either agree to, or are awarded in arbitration hearings. Toronto is paying arbitration eligible players over $52 million this year, highlighted by $14.5 million to Guerrero Jr., $11.2 million to Bichette, $4,537,500 to Jordan Romano, $3.5 million to Danny Jansen, $3.15 million to Adam Cimber, $3.05 million to Daulton Varsho, $2.8 million to Cavan Biggio and $2.1 million to each of Tim Mayza and Santiago Espinal. All of them - apart from Bichette and maybe the injured Cimber - will get raises in 2024 for the purposes of the luxury tax payroll.
Relievers Trevor Richards ($1.5 million) and Erik Swanson ($1.25 million) are also due big raises in 2024; and, Alejandro Kirk will also be arbitration eligibile for the first time in 2024. Alek Manoah will likely not gain the ‘Super Two’ designation after missing much of the past month.
The Blue Jays front office could also obviously agree to long-term contract extensions with younger players to buyout their remaining years of arbitration eligibility and some of their free agent years. The Braves have done this by locking in much of their young core, which gives payroll certainty.
Retained salaries: Toronto’s front office somehow managed to inherit $2.0 million in retained 2024 salary for Paul DeJong, who was only on the roster for 19 days in August before being DFA’d. The retained $4.333 million owed to Randal Grichuk will drop-off after 2023.