Jays Journal's Top 30 Blue Jays Prospects - 2024 Update

The Blue Jays farm system as a whole is in a weaker spot entering the 2024 season. The system is deeper than it is top heavy but does have the personnel to make a substantial leap with good health and a few primed breakouts. With the exception of one notable name, many of the top pitching prospects lack upper minor experience. The farm is stocked with younger pitchers with intriguing arsenals that we're waiting on to put it all together. Many of the top bats in the system are approaching the major leagues and could make an impact sooner rather than later. There's also a strong crop of relievers at Triple-A that could see MLB innings this year.

When constructing a top prospect list, the aim is always to project the players that will make for the best big leaguers. There are many factors one must take into account including age, level, production, underlying data, raw tools, body, and mechanics. The below list weighs the importance of those details and much more. This list features in depth player profiles and is in descending order from the #30 ranked prospect to the #1.

This Top 30 prospects list is an updated and revised version of the previous Blue Jays Top 30 Prospects list published for JaysProspectus on X. JaysProspectus is an account dedicated to providing coverage on the Blue Jays Farm System and the MLB Draft.

Without further ado, let's jump into it.

30. Nolan Perry- ROK (Previous Rank: UR)
20 y.o / RHP / SP

Perry is the only newcomer to the list this time around after a string of positive reports on him at the Florida Complex League. His 7.28 ERA can be tough to get past but there's little value in looking at results over process especially at the Rookie Ball stage of development. His peripherals are more than fine and 38.1 innings is hardly a big sample size. Perry has a projectable frame and the chance for a dynamic fastball. It's 92-93 MPH right now with lots of ride and run. Both his breaking balls have shown potential and he has some feel for landing them in the zone. His changeup is infrequently used. Perry has shown the potential for average control and command. He's far from a finished product but flashes more starter traits than most at this level. Perry talked with JaysJournal's Eric Treuden earlier this month and you can find that interview here.

29. T.J Brock- AA (Previous Rank: 30)
24 y.o / RHP / RP

Brock is a true relief prospect and was a lot better than his ERA would indicate in his first pro season. He posted an incredible strikeout rate across High-A and Double-A which was largely driven by the quality of his slider. It's a high 80s gyro that hitters rarely touch. Even when they do make contact it tends to be of the weak variety. Brock's other offering is his 95-96 MPH fastball. It has the velocity to play but got hit quite hard at Double-A due to its shape and his command of it. There's likely not much projection ahead of Brock and he'll need to keep ironing out the fine details of pitching to be a productive MLB reliever.

28. Mason Fluharty- AA (Previous Rank: 23)
22 y.o / LHP / RP

Fluharty proved himself to be pro ready with a 3.28 ERA and strong strikeout to walk rate in his first full season. He was dominant at High-A and held his own when he was promoted to Double-A. His key pitch is his sweeping slider and he throws it a lot. It's a devastating offering for left-handed hitters and it has enough movement to hold off righties. He throws an 89 MPH cutter that does a good job of missing barrels and gives him an option against righties. His low 90s fastball isn't typically an impact pitch for him. Fluharty has kept his walks down and will need to to continue to command his pitches at a high level. He projects as a second lefty out of the bullpen.

27. Lazaro Estrada- A (Previous Rank: 29)
24 y.o / RHP / RP

Estrada has become a personal favourite of mine and I wrote an entire spotlight piece on him a few months back. He's an older prospect that lacks the projection or deep arsenal to start long term. So why is he ranked? He was dominant at Single-A this year in a starter role posting a 2.83 ERA with a FIP to match. This dominance was a product of his fastball/curveball mix that befuddled hitters. The fastball averages 19 inches of induced vertical break and he throws it from an uphill attack angle. It had an elite whiff rate despite being just 93 MPH on average. If he can get that to 94-95 in a relief role it'll play well in the big leagues. He traded some depth on his curveball this year for more power and it was still a strong offering for him that tunneled well off his fastball to keep hitters guessing. Estrada kept the walks to a minimum in a starter role and has solid command. He deserves a better test than Single-A in 2024.

24. Tucker Toman- A (Previous Rank: 20)
20 y.o / Switch / 3B

There's little positive analysis to take from Toman's 2023 campaign but he's also not far removed from being a Day 1 draft pick. The professional curve can be steeper for some prep hitters than others and it's worth giving Toman time to adjust and improve. The main sticking point is his 26.8% strikeout rate. Toman whiffed over 50% of the time against breaking balls and wasn't particularly good against fastballs or offspeed either. It's up to the evaluator how much you think he can improve on that in 2024. The other major issue was that his home run power wasn't as advertised, his exit velocities were pedestrian and he wasn't able to consistently elevate the ball. The one positive was that his swing decisions were strong. He may be a candidate to stop switch hitting and focus on hitting left-handed going forward. Toman was fine defensively at third base where he figures to land long term.

23. Hagen Danner- AAA (Previous Rank: 22)
25 y.o / RHP / RP

Danner made his very brief pro debut in 2023 before hitting the injured list with an oblique strain. The injured list isn't unfamiliar territory for him as he has a very short track record of health. He figures to be healthy coming into 2024 and when that is the case he's a good relief prospect. His fastball sits 96-97 MPH with some ride and cut and he's confident throwing it all over the zone. Despite the velocity, it wasn't an effective pitch in a vacuum at Triple-A. His slider has huge vertical break and is a good pitch for him. He'll occasionally add a curveball for a different look. Danner was an impressive strike thrower in 2023 but his history of it short. He'll be one to watch closely in Spring Training and may contend for a roster spot early in the year.

22. Michael Dominguez- AA (Previous Rank: 21)
23 y.o / RHP / SP/RP

When identifying potential major league pitchers, being unique can go a long way. Dominguez had a 3.87 ERA across over 100 innings with shaky peripherals. He was the pitcher version of three true outcomes with a high strikeout rate, high walk rate, and a high home run rate. Dominguez's fastball is in the low 90s from an incredibly flat vertical approach angle with lots of riding life. It's as close to an "uphill" fastball as you'll see and hitters can really struggle to climb the ladder against it. They tend to swing under it and it can find barrels when Dominguez doesn't locate it effectively. As unique as his fastball is, his slider is just as wacky. It has the shape of a pitch you expect to get chases and miss a lot of bats and for the most part it has done that. Dominguez throws a changeup against left-handed hitters. His feel for its shape and location is inconsistent but it tunnels well off his aforementioned pitches. He has below average command and control which has given him trouble with walks and has contributed to his home run problem. Dominguez will continue to get chances to start but a profile like this makes a lot more sense in the bullpen. Both his fastball and slider would be plus pitches with a few more ticks of velocity and shorter outings could artificially induce that. His control issues and struggles with left-handed hitters would also benefit greatly from this move.

21. Fernando Perez- ROK (Previous Rank: 26)
19 y.o / RHP / SP

Perez isn't well known among Blue Jays fans but that could change in 2024. He was the most productive pitcher in the entire Florida Complex League with a 2.72 ERA, 29.2% K%, and just a 6.2% BB%. Perez isn't the uber-projectable young arm we often dream on but he may end up with the best command and control in the Jays system. He pounded the zone with a two-seamer and a four-seamer that sit 92-94 MPH. He also has a breaking ball and changeup that both look like potential above average offerings. Perez has a large range of outcomes and if his individual pitches do not take a step forward his command will only get him so far. However, a teenager with three solid offerings and elite command should be watched very closely as he makes the leap to affiliate baseball.

20. Josh Kasevich- A+ (Previous Rank: 19)
23 y.o / RHH / SS

Kasevich doesn't swing and miss which gives him a high floor of production. He ran some of the best bat-to-ball metrics in the minor leagues and has the approach to walk a fair amount too. Unfortunately, he has little to no game power to speak of. Kasevich hit just 4 home runs and his raw power and groundball rates indicate that it was no fluke. As a singles hitter his upside with the bat is fairly minimal. Part of what might make Kasevich a productive big leaguer is that he is a sure-handed shortstop and profiles as a long term fit in the middle infield.

19. Chad Dallas- AA (Previous Rank: 18)
23 y.o / RHP / SP

Dallas had a 3.65 ERA and respectable peripherals across 123.1 innings in 2023. His low to mid 80s sweeping slider is still great, averaging over a foot of horizontal break. He uses that pitch more than his 93 MPH fastball and has outstanding feel for it. His fastball is solid but a bit ordinary. When his command of it isn't locked in it tends to get hit. Dallas throws a curveball and changeup as well but they're fringe average offerings. The nature of his arsenal and arm slot means he's susceptible to lefties so he added an intriguing cutter this year to help patch that weakness. Dallas improved his walk rate and has the command to be a long-term starter. His arsenal may make more sense in the bullpen but he showed enough in his workhorse 2023 to ward off concern for the time being.

18. Dahian Santos- A+ (Previous Rank: 15)
20 y.o / RHP / SP

Santos had his season end in July with a forearm strain. He's reportedly healthy and looks to have dodged Tommy John. He was one of the most exciting young arms entering the year but did not show much progression as a starter. Luckily he's still just 20 years old and has a strong arsenal to lean on. His low 90s two-seam fastball has lots of run from his sidearm-ish slot. His slider is still a dominant pitch and one of the better ones in a system full of them. His changeup has shown some promise and he used it more this year. Santos has a starter's arsenal but everything else points to the bullpen. He has struggled with walks and his delivery doesn't bode well for major improvement there. He's still young and athletic and will be given a chance to start in 2024.

17. Spencer Horwitz- MLB (Previous Rank: 14)
26 y.o / LHH / 1B

Horwitz brings a plate skills based approach as a first baseman. He walked more than he struck out and had a .926 OPS on the season at Triple-A. He crushed right-handed pitchers (1.016 OPS) and that figures to be his role in the big leagues. Horwitz rarely strikes out (14.9%) due to his plus bat-to-ball skills and excellent approach. He lays off bad pitches but he's also aggressive when he needs to be. He has a stellar swing path that lets him lace line drives all over the field and cover different pitch types. The fundamental flaw in his hitting profile is that his raw power is only average and he's unlikely much more than a 10-15 home run threat. Given that he's 26, there's not much projection ahead of him in terms of raw skills. He's mostly a finished product and appears unlikely to hit enough to play everyday given the offensive bar at first base. Even so, Horwitz appears to be good enough against right-handed pitching to secure a big league role somewhere.

16. Damiano Palmegiani- AAA (Previous Rank: 17)
24 y.o / RHH / 3B/1B

Palmegiani just keeps on hitting. He was good at Double-A, even better at Triple-A, and then very good in the Arizona Fall League. He makes his money on plus raw power and a feel for barreling the ball. Palmegiani mashes mistakes, clobbering them out of the yard typically to his pull-side. He's generally a patient hitter and when he's at his best he shows a consistent and strong approach at the plate. His strikeout rate ticked up to around 27% this year. It's the nature of his below average bat-to-ball skills, pull-heavy approach, and willingness to work deep into counts. Keeping that number in check will be of the utmost importance. Palmegiani has improved his defense at third base but he's limited there athletically and that's unlikely to change. If his future is at first base, he's in a sticky spot as a right-handed hitter. There's plenty of indication that Palmegiani is going to hit like a big leaguer and ultimately that will land him a role somewhere, even if it may end up being on the weak-side of a platoon.

15. Connor Cooke- AAA (Previous Rank: 13)
24 y.o / RHP / RP

Cooke is a strikeout artist who punched out more than 40% of the batters he faced in 2023. Most of the Ks came on his double plus slider. He can spin it past 3000 RPMs and it averages 17 inches of sweep. It's a downright disgusting offering that makes batters look silly with regularity. The slider is good enough that he's virtually a lock to have an MLB future. How high the ceiling goes is dependent on the rest of his arsenal and his command. Cooke's 94-95 MPH fastball plays above average thanks to the uphill angle he throws it at and its tunnel off his slider. He'll also mix in a pretty good changeup but his feel for that pitch is still inconsistent. Cooke maintained a good walk rate before he got to Triple-A but his command in general stands to improve. His slider is good enough to beat MLB hitters consistently but he's at his best when he's locating his pitches and keeping hitters guessing. That's the Connor Cooke that could be a leverage reliever.

14. Yosver Zulueta- AAA (Previous Rank: 9)
26 y.o / RHP / RP

With relievers I have a strict philosophy. Stuff comes first. Zulueta is 26-years old and has consistently been an erratic strike thrower but he has two 60-70 grade pitches which means he's a tweak away from MLB success. We saw Jordan Romano, Felix Bautista, and many more dominant relievers break out at this age so there's plenty of precedent here. The best run Zulueta had all season was the last 11.2 innings after returning from the Development Complex and that's no coincidence. He ironed out his delivery and ditched his 96 MPH four-seam fastball completely. It makes sense because his 96 MPH sinker grades out and performed much better thanks to it's fantastic sink and run. At Triple-A where home runs ran rampant, Zulueta allowed just 1 all season. Hitters had a pitiful 18.8% Flyball rate against him. I've yet to mention his slider which has a good case for being his best pitch. He tweaked it at the Development Complex and now throws it a bit harder at 86 MPH with less sweep. A change like this is typical of a pitcher looking to trade movement for command. The whiff rate on the pitch was over 40% on the season and the new tweaked version had a 124 tjStuff+. It's entirely possible that Zulueta never throws enough strikes to be a big league reliever but there's not much sense in giving up on a pitcher that profiles similar to Jordan Hicks.

13. Enmanuel Bonilla- DSL (Previous Rank: 25)
17 y.o / RHH / OF

The prize of the Jays' 2023 IFA class, Bonilla had a 127 wRC+ in his Dominican Summer League debut. He picked up steam as he got more comfortable and had a 185 wRC+ in August to end his season. He reached base in all but 2 games. Bonilla is already hitting the ball up to 108 MPH at 17 years old and has the physicality to grow into double plus raw power. Right now he's lacing groundballs and line drives all over the field to the tune of a .410 BABIP. He's still learning to make his best contact in the air like most players his age but he has the thump and swing to hit for 30+ home run power in the future. His swing decisions are solid, he's aggressive when he needs to be but he's willing to walk too. Bonilla struck out at a 24.3% clip which is on the high end for a big bonus player in the DSL. He'll over-swing on breaking balls and will need to improve the consistency of his mechanics. Whether these are growing pains or warning signs is in the eye of the beholder. There's a very high amount of risk here based on age and experience but few in the system can match the upside Bonilla presents as a potential corner outfield masher.

12. Juaron Watts-Brown- N/A (Previous Rank: 10)
21 y.o / RHP / SP

My opinion of Watts-Brown has not fundamentally changed since the last list. He is a great athlete on the mound with a prototypical pitching frame and the Jays may feel they can get significantly more velocity out of him. His fastball got hit hard in college at 92 MPH despite having around 19 inches of induced vertical break. There is framework here if he can command it better and add some velocity. Watts-Brown's future as a starter or reliever rides on his ability to get his fastball to play but the true gem of his arsenal is his slider. He used it a lot against hitters of both handedness and it had a huge 53% whiff rate. His 12-6 curveball shows quality too. It can miss bats thanks to its depth and he can use it to throw hitters off his slider and steal strikes. Watts-Brown mixes in a changeup that has the potential to be average and could become important as he looks to cut down his home run rate. His Achilles heel with Oklahoma State was his control and command. He walked too many batters and didn't locate his pitches well enough to keep them off barrels. The Jays taking him with their 2nd pick indicates that they have faith he can improve in this area and become a starter at the big league level.

11. Landen Maroudis- N/A (Previous Rank: 12)
19 y.o / RHP / SP

The Blue Jays appeared to be drafting off my board when they went over-slot for Maroudis in the fourth round who I identified as a target for them in the 3rd round. He is yet to pitch professionally but the off-season noise has been very encouraging. Part of what makes Maroudis exciting is all of the velocity jump indicators in his profile. He continues to fill out his projectable 6"3 frame and is a great athlete who is dropping the two-way player gig and focusing only on pitching. He was sitting 92-93 MPH with his fastball and it wouldn't be a shock for that to be 94-96 MPH as soon as this year. With good life and an uphill plane, it could easily grow into a plus pitch for him. Maroudis throws an advanced changeup for a prepster, it has the sink and fading action you look for. His breaking ball quality is what will be the biggest hurdle. He has used a slider and curveball and I'd expect the Jays to lean on his slider and work on getting more consistent depth on it to put away hitters. It's notoriously difficult to project the strike-throwing of high school arms but Maroudis looks the part and has typical starter traits with his command and arsenal. The odds of a Tiedemann-level ascent for Maroudis are low but their profiles on draft day were quite similar once you look past the difference in handedness: both had low 90s fastballs, both had an average at best breaking ball, both had advanced changeups, both had ideal frames with great athleticism and the potential for more velocity.

10. Jace Bohrofen- A (Previous Rank: 8)
22 y.o / LHH / OF

I also had a third-round grade on Bohrofen and he slipped to the Jays in the 6th round. He hit immediately as a pro, posting a 1.080 OPS and 7 home runs in 97 plate appearances. He’s an SEC bat who crushed non-conference and destroys fastballs so the excellent performance at Single-A wasn't too unexpected but the magnitude of it was undeniably impressive. Bohrofen has above average or better raw power and an advanced feel for accessing it in games. He chased pitches out of the zone at only a 17.5% clip at Single-A which is an incredible number that indicates he was not fooled by the pitching he saw. He'll swing and miss against soft stuff and that will be something to monitor as he moves up the ladder and faces pitchers who can spin and locate a breaking ball consistently. He has mostly played right field and he's a fine defender there. Bohrofen projects as a typical power hitting corner outfielder and has the advantage of batting left-handed.

9. Adam Macko- A+ (Previous Rank: 16)
23 y.o / LHP / SP

For most of the year Macko seemed destined for the bullpen. But from August 1st onward he was flat out dominant, posting a 2.96 ERA with a 2.46 FIP and a 29% K-BB%. This performance landed him a 40 man spot which is a good indication of how the organization perceives the league to value him. His 93 MPH fastball is a good pitch for him with carry from a low slot. His spike curveball is his signature offering, a rarity in a slider-heavy Jays system. It has huge depth and touches 3000 RPM, giving hitters fits even when they know it's coming. Adding on a pretty good changeup and slider, he has a deep starter's arsenal. When Macko has everything working you see flashes of a Top 100 arm. When his feel for locating isn't there he's quick to unravel. Still, it was a positive year despite the 4.81 ERA. His FIP was nearly a full run better indicating some bad luck and he cut his walk rate down to reasonable while still showing above average stuff. He also checked another box by staying healthy and tossing 86 frames. The left-hander was added to the Jays' 40-man roster this offseason, protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft and giving him a leg up on the competition for a big league roster spot in 2024.

8. Kendry Rojas- A (Previous Rank: 11)
21 y.o / LHP / SP

The off-season lets you step back and evaluate a player's season out of the moment and it has left me asking myself "why not Kendry Rojas?". A quick glance at his stats and he seems quite average but there's plenty of underlying promise. Despite a pedestrian strikeout rate, his overall swinging strike rate was well above average at 16% (and is a higher correlation to MLB level stuff). He has consistently added velocity every year and still has the prototypical pitching frame for more. If he can maintain the 94 MPH he opened 2023 with, his riding fastball would be a plus pitch. He can cut it to keep it off barrels and it's already getting above average swing and miss with less than ideal command. His slider is his main put-a-way pitch. It features tough two-plane break and he can use it all over the zone. His changeup is his clear third pitch but he sells it well and it got great results this year. Rojas is still ironing out many of the finer details of pitching, holding back his overall numbers. His walk rate was solid for a pitcher at Single-A but his control can come and go inning to inning. He also has difficulty commanding his pitches for called strikes and stands to improve his sequencing. There's a logical leap for Rojas to take in 2024 which would have him projecting as a middle of the rotation arm.

7. Leo Jimenez- AAA (Previous Rank: 7)
22 y.o / RHH / SS/2B

Jimenez is a staple of this section of Blue Jays prospects lists after a bounce-back year 2023. He's a high probability big leaguer with a strong hit tool and valuable up the middle defense. Jimenez makes tons of contact and is willing to draw a walk. He is capable of a standout exit velocity every now and again but his raw power is below average and his feel for elevating the ball with authority is lacking.
He has had some issues punishing fastballs in particular at Triple-A but his feel for contact should allow him to hold his own against big league stuff. It's a .270/.340/.360 type of profile which would play given his defensive chops. He's not the most athletic shortstop but he's sure handed and could play there as a big leaguer. I evaluated him as a potential plus defender at second base given his tool-set and minor league sample there. He's a candidate to take on the "Espinal role" as soon as this year.

6. Alan Roden- AA (Previous Rank: 5)
24 y.o / LHH / OF

Roden lacks the contact quality and defense you typically associate with great position player prospects. Despite this, his hit tool looks like it'll carry him to a productive MLB career. His pre-swing moves are very similar to Nolan Schanuel of the Angels, he starts completely upright with a "Statue of Liberty" stance. He has good barrel control through the zone and his shorter levers help him to rarely swing and miss in or out of the zone. Roden is a passive hitter that rarely chases a bad pitch, helping him walk at a good clip. He's physically strong and can get to modest exit velocities but he has a swing and approach more geared for groundballs and line drives. Roden's power is more situational at the moment, if a pitcher hangs a breaking ball on the inner-half he's more than capable of pulling and lifting it into the seats. He's a better athlete than he gets credit for and shows solid speed and plus instincts on the base paths. I mentioned that Roden lacks defense which is perhaps a bit unfair. He's more than capable in a corner outfield spot but the fact of the matter is that it's a position you typically expect more thump at. If every bit of his hit tool translates you're looking at an every-day player but the median outcome could be a strong-side platoon bat.

5. Brandon Barriera- A (Previous Rank: 6)
19 y.o / LHP / SP

Barriera's first pro season was injury-plagued. He first went down with elbow soreness and then came back in July before being shut down with bicep soreness. Speculation followed that part of his injury woes stemmed from a significant physique change. Per recent reports and looks, he has worked hard to improve his conditioning. The assumption is he will report to camp healthy and raring to go and it would be hasty to give up on a 1st round talent who is still just 19. As far as performance goes, Barriera looked quite good in 2023. He was capable of dominating lower minor hitters with his sweeping slider alone which flashed double-plus with huge sweep and sharp bite. His two-seamer was only 93 MPH but it got above average swing and miss and did an amazing job generating weak contact and groundballs. Barriera's overall groundball rate is one of the highest in all of minor league baseball. He's largely a two-pitch pitcher right now but his changeup has shown enough promise to take on a bigger role as he faces better hitters. Barriera's control was fringe average which isn't unusual in a young pitcher dealing with injuries throughout the year. His command of his fastball and slider specifically was closer to average and he's still projecting to be an average strike thrower. It'll likely be a slow climb for Barriera but he has plenty of upside especially if he shows up to Dunedin throwing 96 MPH (not out of the question given his high school velocity).

4. Addison Barger- AAA (Previous Rank: 4)
24 y.o / LHH / 3B/OF

Barger didn't have the year anyone hoped for coming off his huge 2022 but he added versatility in the field and his hitting profile remains enticing. Prior to being sidelined with an elbow issue he had a 31.0% K% and a 11.5% BB%. After returning to AAA in June, Barger had a much improved 19.0% K% and 13.5% BB%. He was more patient this year and maintained a good chase rate. He employs a big leg kick and did a better job of harnessing his swing this year, cutting down swing and miss significantly. The problem is that his swing path itself was below average and he struggled to elevate the ball with authority like he had done in the past. Barger's high end exit velocity numbers are elite but his average exit velocity is simply above average, indicating that despite his great strength he can struggle with mishits and getting jammed. The components of a great hitter are all present but some mechanical inconsistencies stand in the way of it all clicking in time for his MLB debut. Defensively, Barger moved all over the diamond in 2023. He has solid footwork and hands at third base with a cannon for an arm that gives him more buffer time than others. His lateral mobility can limit his range and might be a factor in him seeing significant work in right field especially to end the year. He picked up the outfield relatively quickly and already looked the part of an average defender there.

3. Orelvis Martinez- AAA (Previous Rank: 3)
22 y.o / RHH / 3B/2B

Martinez's prospect journey has been one with peaks and valleys but his ability to hit for huge home run power has remained constant. He's an extreme flyball hitter who pulls the ball as much as anyone and his exit velocities do more than enough to help him make the most of that talent. He brushed up hit tool concerns this year as he improved his plate discipline without sacrificing his natural aggressiveness in the zone. He also made more contact on soft stuff and his no stride approach with two strikes helped him cut down his strikeouts. He fell back into old habits a bit after his Triple-A promotion but that’s not too unusual for a young hitter. He has shown the ability to adjust to what pitchers are doing to him and there's no reason to believe that Triple-A and eventually MLB will be too different. Martinez is a solid athlete with a plus arm that he can use to make the off-platform throws required of a left side of the diamond infielder. His arm stroke can be awkward which leads to errant throws and his instincts, internal clock, and footwork are inconsistent. Martinez has the tools to be an average defender at third base or second base but he's not there just yet.

2. Arjun Nimmala- ROK (Previous Rank: 2)
18 y.o / RHH / SS

Nimmala was #9 on the JaysProspectus draft board and he fell to the Blue Jays at #20. He oozes projection not just because he's incredibly young but because of his body, swing, and background. He's already hitting the ball hard because of his hands and bat speed and the natural loft in his swing means that it is often in the air. With obvious physical growth to come, Nimmala could be a 30+ home run masher one day. Rookie ball pitching can be noncompetitive at times but his gargantuan 35% BB% in his pro debut is encouraging considering his chase rate was a concern pre-draft. He can struggle with picking up spin and will swing and miss quite a lot against it especially on the outer half of the zone. Considering his youth this is hardly a surprise. I'm optimistic that Nimmala will continue to improve his pitch recognition and tracking with more experience. Single-A will be a big test for the 18 year old and he'll look to keep his strikeout rate below 25% like in Rookie Ball. Nimmala runs fairly well and has the range, arm, and skills to stick at shortstop long term. Depending how he grows into his body he could slow down and end up moving to third base where he'd likely profile as an above average defender. There's a "Goldilocks zone" where he maintains the mobility to play shortstop while hitting for huge power. It's unusual to rank a prospect of this variance this high on a list but Nimmala has the prestige and projection you look for in this spot.

1. Ricky Tiedemann- AAA (Previous Rank: 1)
21 y.o / LHP / SP

The consensus top prospect of the system, Tiedemann had a roller coaster year that ended on a good note. The southpaw sits 94-97 MPH with a fastball that comes in from a low 3/4 arm slot. The pitch has two-seamer shape with the armside run and sink to miss barrels and induce weak contact consistently. It has also played like a swing and miss offering due to the uniqueness of his arm action and release point as well as his premium left-handed velocity. Tiedemann can struggle at times to command the pitch to his glove side given his delivery. He also throws a low 80s slider with tons of horizontal sweep. It was his most improved pitch last year and it can get whiffs and called strikes all over the zone. The pitch eats up lefties in particular, starting off looking like it'll hit them before landing in the strike zone. The third pitch in his arsenal is his good changeup which is 83-84 MPH with huge dip and fade. Tiedemann moved off the pitch a bit this year in favour of his slider but he will still lean on it especially as he gets deeper into outings.

As a whole, Tiedemann's arsenal is an elite combination of strong strikeout stuff and weak contact generating. He posted an incredible 44% K% and opposing hitters had just a .237 slugging percentage against him. Tiedemann's "modest" 3.68 ERA is largely a product of bad luck both statistically and anecdotally. His 1.68 FIP, the enormous rate of singles he gave up, and many defensive miscues behind him are indications of this. That being said, Tiedemann's wandering control of the strike zone put him bad spots this year. When he was healthy and syncing up his mechanics he was commanding his fastball and maintained a consistent release point. From April seemingly to September he was either sidelined or rehabbing from arm injuries and it clearly affected his control. Tiedemann is a great athlete for his size and has shown the potential to be an average strike thrower in the past, giving hope that he'll limit the walks and big innings in 2024. Any improvement in this area will start with health and consistent innings as Tiedemann threw just 62 innings in 2023 and only finished 5 innings three times (all in the Arizona Fall League). There are question to answer but he has the arsenal to be an ace in this league.