Jays Journal's Top 30 Blue Jays Prospects - 2024 Midseason Update

As we enter summer, it's about time we check in on the Blue Jays farm system. The system entered the year in a weaker place and although there were promising returns early on, many of the system's premier talents have went down with injury. Ricky Tiedemann, who is the incumbent top prospect from the last Jays Journal ranking, hasn't been able to stay healthy. In fact, none of the top-five pitchers ranked to enter the year have stayed healthy.

Despite the lack of health on the pitching end, there are some talented arms in the system that we'll get into. On the hitting end, there are some players that are close to being ready to contribute to the big league team as well as some further away that are hoping to get back on track. Given the stale state of the big league club, it's more important than ever to pay to attention to the farm system.

When constructing a top prospect list, the aim is always to project the players that will make for the best big leaguers. There are many factors one must take into account including age, level, production, underlying data, raw tools, body, and mechanics. The below list weighs the importance of those details and much more. This list features player profiles and is in descending order from the #30 ranked prospect to the #1.

30. Franklin Rojas- DSL (Previous Rank: Unranked)
17 y.o / RHH / C

Rojas was the Jays top signing in their 2024 interntional free agent class. He started his season in the DSL just in the last few weeks and is off to a solid start. Rojas is quite strong for his age and he's already capable of hitting the ball hard with consistency. There's natural loft in his swing and he pairs that with good contact skills. Rojas was known to be an aggressive hitter as an amateur but he's so young there's really no telling what his approach will end up being. He moves smoothly behind the plate and blocks well. He is more advanced as a defender than you typically see at this age and he has a good feel for game-calling. His athleticism is on display with his pop times and catch-and-throw skills.

29. Riley Tirotta- AAA (Previous Rank: Unranked)
25 y.o / RHH / 1B

Tirotta is another older late bloomer bat-first infielder in the Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz mold. He has absolutely raked at both Double-A and Triple-A this year. He has posted high BABIPs, big power numbers, and a very healthy walk rate. The main issue is the strikeouts which have consistently been on the high end throughout his minor league career. Swing and miss is one of the hardest things to fix in a player, especially one who is 25. Despite this hole, Tirotta clearly has hitting ability and I do think much of his game can translate. His swing path grades out as elite which does wonders for his quality of contact and has proven to be an important element in predicting big league success. Tirotta may end up competing with Damiano Palmegiani (more on him later) for reps on the weak side of a 1B/DH platoon.

28. Cade Doughty- AA (Previous Rank: 26)
23 y.o / RHH / 2B/3B

Doughty had a delayed start to his year due to a shoulder injury. He has since completed his rehab assignment, mashing his way through Single-A. Now that he is in Double-A, he's showing some of the same strikeout to walk rate issues as he showed last year at High-A. Doughty has pedigree and game power, he hit 18 bombs in 424 plate appearances last year. But the strikeouts have come in bunches and his aggressive nature has prevented him from walking much. I worry about how much improvement Doughty realistically has in front of him. He'll have to start showing a better hit tool because his bat isn't going to play in the upper minors or majors at the current rate. It doesn't help that he isn't a great defender at second or third base.

27. Dahian Santos- A+ (Previous Rank: 18)
21 y.o / RHP / SP/RP

Santos has hardly pitched in 2024 due to a nagging forearm/elbow issue from last year. It's fair to wonder if he'll need a surgery in the coming future but as of writing he is "healthy". His sinker has been 93-94 MPH in his few rehab appearances, a tick up from last year. It's tough to take away much from that because he has been coming out of the bullpen. Whether that's officially the route the Jays are taking with Santos remains to be seen. He certainly has the stuff to start but his injury history, slight frame, and struggles with strike-throwing point more to a bullpen role. I really like his sinker/slider/changeup combination in a leverage role. With the right development he can be a big weapon back there.

26. Sam Shaw- FCL (Previous Rank: Unranked)
19 y.o / LHH / 2B/OF

A player with the slash line that Shaw has in the Florida Complex League probably isn't ranked in the top 30 prospects of too many systems. But in a weak system you look for skills, a player that has a special trait or two that might allow them to blossom in the future. Shaw has that as he is a versatile fielder, a good baserunner, and is walking significantly more than he strikes out. His K rate is miniscule - below 10% as of writing. He is not easily fooled in the batter's box but will be prone to being attacked in the zone until he either proves he can do damage in the air or starts hitting more line drives. Shaw isn't likely to hit for significant impact but the frame work is there for him to be a useful player down the road.

25. Jean Joseph- A (Previous Rank: Unranked)
19 y.o / RHH / OF

Joseph turned 19 this year, projects to be a valuable defender in center field, and has been slightly above average offensively at Single-A. He has been a case in which a lot of the underlying stats would have you believe he has produced more than he has. Joseph makes an above average amount of contact and has had good plate discipline metrics in the past (but has not walked a whole lot this year). He has raw power in the tank with a max exit velocity of 107 MPH as a teenager. Finding his best swing consistently is the key task to getting to his power in games with regularity. Right now there's too many weak rollovers and pop ups for his top exit velocity numbers to lead to production. Joseph is a name to watch and finds himself on the back end of this list.

24. Chad Dallas- AAA (Previous Rank: 19)
24 y.o / RHP / SP

Dallas was one of the top performing pitchers in the system last year but he has went backwards this year at Triple-A. He has struggled to strike hitters out and has been getting torched by the long ball. I've worried about his future as a starter in the past due to his lack of swing and miss outside of his slider. This year his sweeping slider has lost some break on it and hasn't been able to bail him out. A starting pitcher with a mediocre fastball can work but he needs his cutter or curveball to step up and to find his old slider again. There are tweaks to be made here and Dallas has the command to start but he might end up converting to a reliever at the rate it has been going for him. He sticks on this list because I like how his arsenal plays in relief: a few extra ticks on the fastball and slider could make him a useful option in the pen.

23. Dasan Brown- A+ (Previous Rank: Unranked)
22 y.o / RHH / OF

Brown was close to making the list this off-season and his strong performance halfway through this season was enough of a bump in his stock this time around. He has been a well above average hitter, doing what you're supposed to do when you're repeating a level. However, if Brown has a productive MLB career it will not be because of his bat but rather his defense and speed on the bases. Brown has the best outfield range in the system and his raw speed is the best in the entire organization. This year with the bat he has cut down his strikeout rate, improved his walk rate, and is hitting more line drives which has helped him run a much improved BABIP. He is never going to be a consistent home run threat but if he can keep running into them on his pull-side that'll be enough. Brown is still just 22 and should be tested at Double-A in the coming weeks. The Blue Jays will be hoping he can catch onto it faster than he caught onto High-A. If he can be just an 75-80 wRC+ bat in the majors he has a chance to start games and still make an impact.

22. T.J Brock- AA (Previous Rank: 28)
24 y.o / RHP / RP

Brock had an elbow scare early this year but he has since completed his rehab assignment and is back pitching at Double-A. He continues to strike batters out in bunches, maintaining his elite minor league K rate. Brock gets the job done mostly with the quality of his slider. It's a high-80s gyro that hitters rarely touch. Even when they do make contact it tends to be of the weak variety. Brock's other offering is a 95-96 MPH fastball. It has the velocity to play but has got hit quite hard in the past due to its shape and his command of it. Brock is older and could give the Jays innings soon if he can maintain average command over a few months span.

21. Mason Fluharty- AAA (Previous Rank: 28)
22 y.o / LHP / RP

Fluharty is a rare true reliever prospect. He was drafted as one in 2022 and has made short work of the lower minors as he's already in Triple-A and performing well. He's a classic fastball/slider reliever but with a twist as the fastball comes in at just 87-88 MPH. Obviously, this caps Fluharty's upside significantly. But his fastball still gets results due to the tricky angle and its movement profile. His slider is a much better pitch, coming in at 79 MPH with over a foot and a half of horizontal break. This kind of pitcher profile works a lot better against same-handed hitters and that'll likely be Fluharty's role in the big leagues. He has dominated lefties across his minor league career. His arsenal, command, and left-handedness give him a good shot of being a useful reliever in the big leagues.

20. Nolan Perry- A (Previous Rank: 30)
20 y.o / RHP / SP

Perry brings youth, projection, and strikeouts to the table. He also brings a walk rate far beyond what is acceptable for a starting pitcher. This is a newer development for the young right-hander as his walk rate was fine last year. Outside of the control issues he's doing everything well, he has struck out lots of batters and has limited hard contact, telltale signs that the stuff plays. Perry's 92-94 MPH fastball comes with an above average movement profile and has been returning lots of whiffs. He's still projectable for another tick of velocity in the future if not more. He throws both a curveball and slider frequently. Both show the potential to be above average in the future. Perry will also rarely mix in an underdeveloped changeup. If he can get the walks under control he's well on his way to being one of the better pitching prospects in the system. Until then he's yet another young Blue Jays pitching prospect looking to put it all together as a starter.

19. Damiano Palmegiani- AAA (Previous Rank: 16)
24 y.o / RHH / 3B/1B

Palmegiani was the talk of last fall with stellar performance to end the season and in the Arizona Fall League. His bat has stalled in 2024 which puts more pressure on his shaky defensive profile at third base. Palmegiani makes his money on above average raw power and a feel for elevating and pulling the ball. He has been a bit unlucky this year but his strikeout rate continues to be a bit too high for an older hitter at Triple-A. He struggles against quality soft stuff, something that will only be exaggerated in the majors. There's still lots to like in his power and patience but he'll need to show he's closing some of his offensive holes sooner rather than later because if his future is at first base, he's in a sticky spot as a right-handed hitter.

18. Connor Cooke- AAA (Previous Rank: 15)
24 y.o / RHP / RP

Cooke looked poised to play an important role in the Blue Jays bullpen this year (and he would've got the opportunity with the amount of injuries the Jays have had there) but he has struggled greatly this year at Triple-A. He has lost the zone completely with a walk rate nearing 20% and his strikeout rate has nearly been cut in half from last year. Cooke's strikeout numbers last year were so ridiculous that this means he's still striking out over a batter an inning this year but it still has been quite the fall off. His wipeout slider, uphill fastball, and solid changeup give him back end of the bullpen potential when his feel for locating is there. There's a precedent of him throwing strikes so there's reason to believe he'll turn the page and reliever performance is notoriously variable month to month.

17. Lazaro Estrada- A+ (Previous Rank: 27)
25 y.o / RHP / SP/RP

Last year, I wrote a spotlight piece on why I think Lazaro Estrada is being overlooked. Since then, he has continued to produce, including a recent no-hitter. His fastball isn't thrown extremely hard (typically low-to-mid-90s) but its combination of extreme ride and his uphill attack angle make it a tricky pitch for hitters to pick up. He has also been known for his strong curveball that tunnels well off his fastball. Estrada has above average control and at least average command. Given his advanced age for the level (which is more a product of lost development years and a visa issue than lack of production) I'd like to see the Jays promote him to Double-A soon. He has more of a reliever profile but I think he can be a really good one in the near future.

16. Victor Arias- A (Previous Rank: Unranked)
20 y.o / LHH / OF

Arias is one of the few hitters in the lower minors that is producing well at a level that he is young for. The 20-year-old left-handed outfielder hasn't been a world beater but he has been well above average in a league where offense is hard to come by. He has been walking at a high clip and actually managed to slash his strikeout rate coming from the complex league which is a promising sign. Arias has above average, maybe even plus bat speed that he uses to scorch hard line groundballs and line drives to all fields. That raw power comes with some limitations due to his flatter swing. Arias has split time between center field and left field. His stockier build is better suited for a corner outfield spot long term.

15. Brandon Barriera- A (Previous Rank: 5)
20 y.o / LHP / SP

Barriera struggled through an injury plagued 2023. He looked healthy and in form to enter the year before the ticking time bomb went off and he needed elbow surgery. Barriera got a hybrid surgery that will keep him out all of 2024 and most likely most of 2025. He'll likely be just 21 when he returns so there will be time to make up for lost time but this is clearly a massive blow to his stock. Below is part of his profile to enter the year.

As far as performance goes, Barriera looked quite good in 2023. He was capable of dominating lower minor hitters with his sweeping slider alone which flashed double-plus with huge sweep and sharp bite. His two-seamer was only 93 MPH but it got above average swing and miss and did an amazing job generating weak contact and groundballs. Barriera's overall groundball rate is one of the highest in all of minor league baseball. He's largely a two-pitch pitcher right now but his changeup has shown enough promise to take on a bigger role as he faces better hitters. Barriera's control was fringe average which isn't unusual in a young pitcher dealing with injuries throughout the year. His command of his fastball and slider specifically was closer to average and he's still projecting to be an average strike thrower.

14. Jace Bohrofen- A+ (Previous Rank: 10)
22 y.o / LHH / OF

Coming off a dominant stint at Single-A, the expectations were high for Bohrofen entering 2024. He has been a bit underwhelming at High-A so far as the power numbers have not really been what they were expected to be. Despite this he has still been above average and is showing excellent plate discipline. He has been incredibly pull happy even compared to normal which might have something to do with his performance up to this point. There is swing in miss in his game and he has mostly managed his strikeouts so far against better breaking balls than what he saw at Single-A. If Bohrofen is going to strike out some he'll need to slug more for his bat to play in a corner outfield spot. There is time for the former sixht-rounder to catch fire and I still believe in his hitting profile.

13. Enmanuel Bonilla- FCL (Previous Rank: 13)
18 y.o / RHH / OF

There were a lot of folks excited about Bonilla this year but some of the concerns around his hit tool have reared their head in the FCL. He largely dominated the Dominican Summer League last year but there was some concern about his strikeout rate. It has since ballooned and he has been struggling to draw walks as well. Bonilla hits the ball hard with regularity and is incredibly young but he'll need to sharpen up his plate skills to reach his ceiling. He'll also need to learn to make more of his hardest contact in the air. There's tons of potential here, especially if he can stick in center field, but lots of things to work on as well. I'm holding him at 13 for now despite the poor performance.

10. Alan Roden- AAA (Previous Rank: 6)
24 y.o / LHH / OF

Roden lacks the contact quality and defense you typically associate with great position player prospects. Despite this, his hit tool looks like it'll carry him to a career in the big leagues. He has good barrel control through the zone and his shorter levers help him to rarely swing and miss in or out of the zone. Roden is a passive hitter that rarely chases bad pitches, helping him walk at a good clip. He's physically strong and can get to modest exit velocities but he has a swing and approach more geared for groundballs and line drives. Roden needs to hit for impact now that he's arrived at Triple-A and as a 24-year-old prospect this is a level you'd expect him to hit at sooner rather than later. He's a better athlete than he gets credit for and shows solid speed and plus instincts on the base paths. He's more than capable in a corner outfield spot but most players at this position have a better track record of hitting for power. If every bit of his hit tool translates you're looking at an everyday player but the median outcome would be a strong-side platoon bat.

9. Fernando Perez- A (Previous Rank: 21)
20 y.o / RHP / SP

Perez was the most productive pitcher in the entire Florida Complex League last year and he was rewarded with a promotion to Single-A. He has been great so far, posting a good ERA with even better ratios and underlying stats. Perez is a K-BB% darling, showing far beyond his years control and command of his arsenal. There's little doubt that he'll be able to execute his pitches at the highest level. The question is how well his stuff will translate and how much growth he still has ahead of him in that area.

Perez has the frame to throw hard. He's currently mostly 92-93 MPH on the fastball which is not bad for a 20-year-old. His ceiling will be largely dictated by how much he can add to that number. He commands the pitch exceptionally well so there's lots of potential if he can find a bit more velocity. Perez flip-flops between his slider and changeup as his main secondary. His changeup looks like a better pitch right now. That could be a pitch that if it develops further could take him to the next level. There's production and projection in Perez and that's always a combination worth watching.

8. Kendry Rojas- A+ (Previous Rank: 8)
21 y.o / LHP / SP

Rojas has been out since the beginning April with a shoulder issue. He recently began a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League and his stuff looked typical for him. This was his profile to enter the year as he has made just 2 starts with Vancouver.

The off-season lets you step back and evaluate a player's season out of the moment and it has left me asking myself "why not Kendry Rojas?". A quick glance at his stats and he seems quite average but there's plenty of underlying promise. Despite a pedestrian strikeout rate, his overall swinging strike rate was well above average at 16% (and is a higher correlation to MLB level stuff). He has consistently added velocity every year and still has the prototypical pitching frame for more. If he can maintain the 94 MPH he opened 2023 with, his riding fastball would be a plus pitch. He can cut it to keep it off barrels and it's already getting above average swing and miss with less than ideal command. His slider is his main put-a-way pitch. It features tough two-plane break and he can use it all over the zone. His changeup is his clear third pitch but he sells it well and it got great results this year. Rojas is still ironing out many of the finer details of pitching, holding back his overall numbers. His walk rate was solid for a pitcher at Single-A but his control can come and go inning to inning. He also has difficulty commanding his pitches for called strikes and stands to improve his sequencing. There's a logical leap for Rojas to take in 2024 which would have him projecting as a middle of the rotation arm.

7. Juaron Watts-Brown- A+ (Previous Rank: 12)
22 y.o / RHP / SP

Watts-Brown is of the few healthy and performing pitchers in the farm. A third-round pick in last year's draft, he has caught fire in the last month at Dunedin, overpowering hitters with his great slider. JWB has posted great surface level stats and impressive strikeout numbers. He has suppressed the long ball well with one clear area of improvement being the walks. He was recently promoted to High-A Vancouver.

Watts-Brown has an ideal pitcher's frame and a lot of people in the industry have been excited to see if he can add velocity. He was 90-93 MPH out of college but in recent starts he has been up to 93-94 MPH on average. The added velocity has helped what was once a below-average fastball play. He gets solid ride on the pitch and if he can show consistent command it has the potential to be at least average at the MLB level. The real prize is his hard gyro-slider, a no doubt plus offering that carries his profile and has been terrorizing Single-A hitters. This year Watts-Brown has been working to add a cutter that looks to have real potential. Finally he'll add in a curveball to steal strikes with and infrequently uses a changeup. There's reliever risk here in the slider dominant arsenal and work-in-progress command and control, but Watts-Brown has been a much-needed successful pick so far.

6. Adam Macko- AA (Previous Rank: 9)
23 y.o / RHP / SP

When you look solely at his ERA over the years, it might be hard to see the appeal in Macko as a pitcher. But evaluating future starting pitchers in the minors has moved far past ERA in recent years. We can learn a lot more by looking at stats that are simple as strikeout to walk rate (K-BB%) or as complicated as Stuff+ models. Macko has improved his K-BB% this season and his predictive metrics indicate he should have an ERA in the 3.00s. He's striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings and keeps on trimming his walk rate down to levels that are major league starter quality.

From an arsenal perspective, Macko has above average stuff. His fastball sits at 93-95 MPH with good carry on it that helps it miss bats. He throws a hard slider, a spike curveball that is typically considered his best secondary offering, and an inconsistent changeup that could be a bigger weapon in the future for him. With average to above-average command and control, Macko has the chance to slot in as a mid-rotation or back of the rotation starter. As a flyball pitcher, minimizing walks will be key in keeping the home runs solo shots.

5. Addison Barger- AAA (Previous Rank: 4)
24 y.o / LHH / 3B/OF

Barger has been productive at Triple-A after a middling 2023 and he has spent significant time with the big league team. The big thing with him is raw power. He has the second best batspeed on the Jays and he consistently hits the ball hard. The key to unlocking that power is getting more of his best contact in the air. Barger's swing path has been a consistent worry of mine and his <30% flyball rate isn't doing much to alleviate my concerns. Barger makes enough contact and has been productive against all pitch types at Triple-A. He has improved his decisions over the year, going from over-aggressive to more of a passive approach. If he or the coaching staff can unlock his swing, he can be a plus hitter from the left-side.

Barger's early defensive returns in the big leagues have been underwhelming but he does show some promise. He has a cannon of an arm, it's a 70 at worst and will bail him out of inefficient mechanics at the hot corner. He's also an average or better runner which bodes well for his move to the corner outfield. The defensive tools are there and Barger has been solid out there as a minor leaguer.

4. Leo Jimenez- AAA (Previous Rank: 7)
23 y.o / RHH / SS/2B

We're at the point where it's pretty clear that Leo Jimenez is being underappreciated. He's in the midst of a very productive age-23 season while playing up the middle defense. Jimenez makes tons of contact and is willing to draw a walk. Him nearly walking as much as he is striking out at Triple-A is proof of his plate skills. He is capable of a standout exit velocity every now and again but his raw power is below average and his feel for elevating the ball with authority is lacking. In general, the biggest offensive hole for Jimenez is his high groundball rate. He has made recent strides in hitting for power but he's still unlikely to be an impact bat. If he can be even just an average hitter, he'll be a valuable player. Jimenez plays a solid shortstop and profiles as a potentially plus defender at second base should he make the move. He has been one of the more encouraging stories out of the farm this year and was recently called up to the majors.

3. Arjun Nimmala- FCL (Previous Rank: 2)
18 y.o / RHH / SS

To be clear, I am still a big believer in Arjun Nimmala. As far as potential goes, he has the highest ceiling on this list. But unfortunately his hit tool is rawer than expected as evident by his struggles at Single-A. His strikeout rate was too high at 34.4% and too much of his contact was low quality in the form of pop-ups. Nimmala was sent down to the FCL for a month and a half which is really more of his level considering he's just 18. Predicting which prep hitters are ready for Single-A has been a struggle for a lot of clubs but in this case it's quite clear to say the Jays made a mistake initially.

On a more positive note, Nimmala has since returned to Single-A and has shown some improvement. Even through the struggles his gorgeous swing and easy pop are clear to see. He flicks balls out as a teenager still growing into his frame. The power potential is enormous if his hit tool will allow it. Swing and miss issues can be some of the most difficult to fix but Nimmala being relatively new to baseball and the age of most high schoolers lends to the idea that he still has the whole world in front of him. Development isn't linear and it was always going to take time. It's difficult to say trust the process given how lackluster the Jays development process has been but... trust the process.

2. Orelvis Martinez- MLB (Previous Rank: 3)
22 y.o / RHH / 2B/3B

Martinez was recently suspended for 80 games due to PED use. He will be eligible to return later this season.

Orelvis has been in the prospect limelight since he was a 19-year-old tearing up Single-A. Still just 22,
Martinez will now embark on the most difficult chapter of his professional journey as he recently got the long-awaited call up to the big leagues. He's a simple yet enigmatic player, he hits bombs but he does not do a whole lot else. Fortunately, hitting balls over the fence is what gets you paid in this game. Few minor leaguers have hit more home runs than Martinez over the last few years. He mashed 28 in 2021, 30 in 2022, 28 in 2023, and he's looking to add to his total of 16 in 2024. Martinez gets to his power with his natural strength and consistent ability to lift the ball. He's a dead pull hitter who will at times sell out for power, trading barrel adaptability for damage.

When Martinez is at his best he's aggressive and ready to punish good pitches to hit but also willing to lay off the down and away breaking balls right-handed pitchers love to throw to him. Martinez's ability to connect with spin has been a consistent problem for him. It's something that he has significantly improved at over the last year but he'll still need to keep improving to hold his own against MLB quality breaking balls. In general, Martinez could stand to improve against right-handed pitching as his splits have been quite exaggerated over the last few years. The flip-side of this is that he has proven he can mash lefties. Despite his flaws in the batters box, Martinez is young and has been very productive as a hitter. He slugs and he makes better swing decisions than he gets credit for, most hitters who do those two things well are successful for a long time.

Defensively, Martinez has work to do. The Jays seem to like him at second base but he has struggled badly there at Triple-A. I still think he might be a better fit at third base than second base given his skillset. I wrote lots about Martinez's defense here. Martinez has the athletic tools and youth to improve defensively but he'll need to start soon.

1. Ricky Tiedemann- AAA (Previous Rank: 1)
21 y.o / LHP / SP

Tiedemann has been locked in as the best prospect in the system for over a year now and that isn't going to change today. He's still the most talented with the most potential thanks to a potent 3 pitch mix. He throws a 94-97 MPH fastball from a low arm slot. The pitch has a ton of run on it, making it a weak-contact machine when he locates it. Tiedemann's best pitch might be his low 80s sweeper. It's a devastating offering for left-handed hitters and he can back-door it against righties with ease. The southpaw throws a mean changeup as well. He likes to go to it more late in his outings and I'd like to see him utilize it more if anything.

The gripe with Tiedemann continues to be health and durability. He was banged up with a hamstring injury in spring training and seems to have survived an elbow scare. Tiedemann has struggled to find the same control of the strike zone as he had when he was healthy over a consistent stretch back in 2022. Posting every 6 days is a good starting point for getting him back on ace-trajectory. As of writing, Tiedemann is on rehab-assignment and has looked great.