In-depth defensive evaluations on Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, more

Projecting defense is one of the most difficult tasks when it comes to scouting prospects. Defensive tools like frame, sprint speed, arm strength, and lateral mobility are good indications of the type of defender a prospect may become. But as prospects get older and closer to the big leagues, their defensive tools start to matter less and their actual defensive ability starts to matter more. How do we measure defensive ability? The only publicly available defensive stats for the minor leagues are errors and fielding percentage which are not very useful given that they largely do not account for range (arguably the most important defensive factor). As such, the eye test is still the forefront method of evaluating a prospect's defense even in this new analytical era of scouting.

There are a lot of question marks surrounding the defensive homes of a few Blue Jays prospects that have spent significant time at Triple-A Buffalo. These players include Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Damiano Palmegiani, and Leo Jimenez. In the below evaluations, each prospect's defensive tape will be considered as well as the eyewitness accounts of other scouts. From there, a consensus on what position a prospect fits best and their projected defensive ability at that position will be reached.

First, let's dive in to Orelvis Martinez and how he performed all around the infield last year.

Orelvis Martinez

Martinez is the #2 ranked prospect in the Blue Jays system according to MLB Pipeline. He split time between shortstop and third base in Double-A and then made the majority of his appearances at second base in Triple-A. The righty has embraced the challenge of adding versatility all over the infield to his repertoire.

Once I signed here I knew I had to be able to be able to play different positions. Honestly, every day, with the early work I’ve been doing I feel more comfortable. But like anything, it’s an adjustment.

Martinez is a good athlete who is strong without being overly bulky. He moves fairly well on the dirt, his range and mobility is below average for a middle infielder but more than enough at third base. He possesses good arm strength which enables him to make all of the throws required of a shortstop or third baseman. He was signed and developed as a shortstop but he will not play there in the major leagues. He lacks the range, the internal clock and instincts, and the polished mechanics that are required for big league shortstops.

As a second baseman, he has plenty of time to make decisions and go through his movements which allows him to slow down his internal clock. Even though second base is considerably easier than shortstop, it can still be an adjustment learning a new position. It's expected that Martinez will continue to improve at making just the routine plays as he gets more comfortable at second base. In the below clip, it seems like he has more time than he knows what to do with and makes an uncomfortable looking throw.

There are also occasions where the added time was all the difference for him. In the next clip, Martinez makes a good read, a smooth transfer, and a strong and accurate on the run throw. All of these actions would need to be sped up on the left side of the diamond but at second base this is a picture perfect rep to get a quick runner.

As useful as the extra time is at second base, range is still of high emphasis like shortstop. Martinez often gets good breaks on the ball but lacks the agility and straight line speed to get to tough groundballs. Here's an example.

This is a difficult play. Only the best second baseman get to that ball and then convert it into an out. The issue here is that Martinez does not make a play on it at all. Just keeping the ball in the infield would have prevented the runner from going first to third on the play.

Range being as big of a factor as it is at second base is part of why Martinez has long been pegged as a long term third baseman. At third base, his arm is more of a highlight and his range is a more typical fit at a position where you do not need to cover as much ground. His hands, motions, and internal clock are put under more pressure at third. Those are things that are more likely to improve with time and coaching than range is but it's up for debate how much improvement he truly has in front of him in those areas. In the below clip, Martinez makes a nice stop at third but it's what he does after that is most impressive.

He does a great job of composing himself here. He knows how much time he has and takes the appropriate steps before throwing a hard strike to first. This play was to his left but he has shown to be capable at making tough stops to his right along the third base line as well. Martinez (like most players) has a tendency to make errant throws when he feels rushed.

At third base, knowing not only when you need to throw but if you should throw at all is very important. This is something that usually improves with experience but also with good habits such as always knowing who's running. It's worth noting that Martinez is still quite new to third base and just turned 22, there's lots of time for him to develop more of a feel for the position.

The next play is at shortstop rather than third base but it has been picked to highlight his arm strength.

He actually slips a bit here trying to regain his footing but even in this state he puts enough force behind his throw to get the runner by a good margin. It's not pretty from a technical perspective but it does do a good job of showing how his arm can give him more margin for error with inefficient defensive mechanics and motions. There are also clips where Martinez's footwork prevents him from getting his best throw off. Here he gets caught backpedaling and is not able to step into his throw properly. This is a play that he might get away with at second base but not at third base.

Based on the recent year of tape and evaluations from others, these are my Field tool grades for Martinez on the 20-80 scouting scale. A 50 is considered to be a median outcome of being an average defender at the position, a 45 is a median outcome of being a slightly below average defender at the position, and a 40 is a median outcome of being a well below average defender at the position. These grades are in the form of Current/Potential.

Entering an offseason with a lot of uncertainty regarding second and third base, it makes sense to test Martinez out at other positions for flexibility purposes. Although Martinez has been playing more second base recently, third base makes a bit more sense long term based on my evaluation. However, there is not a big enough gap between his defensive ability at either position to dictate how the front office should approach where they add this off-season. He's currently a below average defender who needs more time but does have the youth and defensive tools to improve with experience and good coaching.

Addison Barger

MLB Pipeline ranks Barger as the 5th best prospect in the Blue Jays system. He spent the entire year at Triple-A Buffalo and played shortstop, third base, and right field. Like Martinez, Barger is not a long-term shortstop. He spent a lot of time in the infield throughout the year but by August he was a primary right fielder.

Barger has gotten to be very muscular and as a result he's not as agile as he used to be. Shortstop and second base can immediately be ruled out as long term options. From an actions and hands perspective, Barger is a more polished infielder than Martinez and he also has a cannon of an arm. His arm is so loud that it was likely the inspiration behind his move to right field.

First let's take a look at Barger as an infielder, here's a play showing off his massive arm.

Even with a slight stumble he fires on time to get a quick runner. It's a potentially 70-grade arm. Barger also shows good reads and good instincts on the infield. It's important to remember that not long ago he was seen as a long term shortstop. His hands and actions are not always as quick as you'd like and he does make routine mistakes from time to time. In the below clip he makes a good read but struggles with the transfer a bit. He still converts the play with relative ease.

Barger has plays like the one above where he shows good mobility but he also has plays where his limited range is apparent. This is a ball that a third baseman is expected to get to.

As a right fielder, there's no shortage of plays where Barger can show off his arm. This is a picturesque throw.

And in this clip he initially misreads the ball but recovers in plenty of time and then throws a bullet to double up the runner at first base.

It's to be expected that Barger is still getting used to the outfield. It was only this year that he began to play there in games. His good reflexes have transferred over but he's still learning to consistently read and track the ball. He's not agile but when he gets moving he's not a bad runner. Here's a nice catch in difficult conditions.

And here is an occasion where his lack of acceleration was the difference between a catch and having to play the ball on a hop.

And finally, here's a great catch at the wall.

Based on this year's tape and prior evaluations from other scouts, here are Barger's Field grades for the main positions he has played.

Barger is currently a superior defender to Martinez at third base but it's also important to remember that he has two more years of experience. Based off this year's tape, Barger looks pretty comfortable in right field for someone very new to the position. There's a scenario where he ends up as an above average defender there on the back of his arm and good reads and routes but currently he's projecting as an average defender given his lack of range. Like Martinez, the crowded Buffalo infield may have been a factor in Barger moving away from third base. His utility will be an important factor in him breaking camp with the team in 2024.

Damiano Palmegiani

Palmegiani is ranked as just the #18 prospect on MLB Pipeline but after a strong finish to his MiLB season and an impressive Fall League campaign, he's almost certainly going to move up. He primarily played third base at Double-A before moving to first base at Triple-A. In the Arizona Fall League, he moved back to third base for the majority of his games.

I’m confident in pretty much every position. Ideally I’d like to stay at third, that’s where my game plays the most, with the athleticism and what I can do with the bat.

Whether Palmegiani can stick at third base has been the topic of conversation. If he ends up moving to first base long term he faces a difficult route to everyday playing time given that his right-handedness would find him on the weak side of a platoon. He does not have a lot of range and his arm is not nearly as good as Martinez or Barger. However, he has improved his actions and internal clock this year and has made the decision tough for the Blue Jays. Let's dig into the tape at third base, most of what I have available comes from when he was at Double-A.

This is not a routine play but it's one that a third baseman is expected to make. He backhands it at such an angle that he's forced to try and make an acrobatic throw which he simply does not have the arm for. On the next play, he got a similar groundball but does a better job of keeping his body aligned and makes an accurate throw on the run.

Palmegiani plays the position hard and isn't afraid to attempt acrobatic stops and throws. He shows a good internal clock and composure when attempting these plays. Every so often he makes a standout play that only the best third basemen make. Here are some examples.

For Palmegiani it's less about the incredible plays and more about the routine plays going forward. Making routine plays look harder than they need to be is a recurring theme with him. When he corrals the ball he has to do everything very quickly which results in inaccurate and rushed throws. This is a drastic contrast to Barger who looks much more comfortable with all the routine plays and almost always hits the first baseman in the chest. Additionally, his lack of range means he has to leave his feet more often than he should. In the below clip he hits the dirt on a chopper that a lot of third baseman pick standing up. This results in an ill-advised and errant throw.

Based on this year's tape and evaluations from other scouts, here are Palmegiani's Field grades for the main positions he has played.

Palmegiani has progressed to the point that he's no longer projecting as a well below average defender at third base. He's a hard worker with a good sense of what he wants to do on every play but there are things that he's likely to never improve (range, arm strength). Where he can definitely continue to improve is his consistency with the plays he has shown the ability to make. As a first baseman, Palmegiani's glovework and instincts profile well and his range is more typical of the position. He's perhaps a bit undersized there but should continue to improve his footwork around the bag which can be shaky at times (understandable given his inexperience there). The Jays should give him every opportunity to prove he can handle third base but the infielder room at Triple-A remains crowded and he does seem like the weakest defender of the four covered in this article.