How does re-signing Kevin Kiermaier affect the Blue Jays outfield?

Heading into the offseason, it seemed all but a certainty that the Blue Jays would have Daulton Varsho play center field full time next year. He had 18 Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in his 462.1 innings there this year which are platinum glove-level numbers. He was also coming off a rough year with the bat and the offensive bar in center field is not nearly what it is in left field. Playing Varsho in center would allow the Blue Jays to pursue a meaningful offensive upgrade in left field. Given all of this, it was a bit of a surprise to see them re-sign Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year $10.5M dollar deal with incentives.

When you see the number that they got him at, why they brought him back begins to make more sense. Kiermaier is coming off a strong year in which he stayed healthy, was an above average hitter (104 wRC+), and was elite defensively. It's not very often you see a free agent coming off a 3.9 bWAR season get a deal this small even at 33-years old. Myself and others were projecting Kiermaier for a multi-year deal and it's fair to wonder if he took a discount just to stay in Toronto.

Given how small this deal is, it figures to not preclude the Blue Jays from making other meaningful upgrades and it's not hard to make the argument that they still need help in the outfield. Let's break down the games started this year.

Even in a year that he largely stayed healthy, Kiermaier only started about two thirds of the time. Considering he's another year older and he's quite likely to regress offensively, it's not out of the question that Kiermaier is more of a fourth outfielder than a true every day starter next year. This means that they'll be plenty of opportunities for Daulton Varsho to play center field. It's also worth noting that the Jays pitchers really benefitted from the "super outfield" of Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer even if it's not the most optimal offensively or from a "value" perspective. Here's an excerpt from an article I wrote earlier this year, "Daulton Varsho and What Makes a Player Valuable".

Some of the Jays pitching improvement can actually be attributed to improved defense and Varsho is a big part of that.
There have been some major defensive improvements behind Yusei Kikuchi (-1 OAA to +6 OAA) and Kevin Gausman (-11 OAA to -1 OAA). It’s important to remember every ball that Varsho catches that someone else doesn’t get to is essentially a single or double slashed off the pitcher’s line, it’s a zero sum game.

Another take-away from the outfield breakdown is that there was a good chunk of outfielder at bats that went to Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio. It was common for the Jays to rest one of Kiermaier or Varsho versus a left-handed pitcher and George Springer also started 20 games at DH. It's fair to assume that Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, and potentially Alan Roden will factor into the outfield more this year which would replace some of the Merrifield at bats. Based on the money allotted to him and his playing time, it's fair to say that re-signing Kiermaier isn't going to take the Blue Jays out on a true bat-first outfielder or a combination of a Designated Hitter and another player with outfield flexibility.

The Blue Jays have been linked to a bunch of designated hitters including Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner, and Joc Pederson. Only Soler and Pederson have played the outfield recently. Neither are good defensive outfielders but they at least give you the option. Soler looks like the better fit as he bats right-handed meaning you could play him in left field versus lefties and then rest Varsho/Kiermaier which would open up the DH spot.

We can project what an outfield alignment with Jorge Soler could look like in 2024. Keep in mind this is assuming good health and Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer in particular have had trouble staying healthy in the past.

Even with perfect health and signing one of the few DH options that can play the outfield from time to time, we're still projecting a fair amount of at bats to go to either unproven players or someone like Biggio. Not ideal for a team that needs offense. The Blue Jays are not going to add Martinez or Hoskins and then stand pat on the outfield. A full-time DH is not out of the question but it would have to be followed by another addition with outfield capabilites via signing or trade.

The fit for Kevin Kiermaier on a roster needing offense that already has an elite defensive center fielder may not be obviously apparent. However, when you see his team-friendly deal and dissect the playing time this year you can begin to see how he fits in as a piece of the puzzle rather than the entire puzzle itself. There's more coming and it's fair to expect that it'll be a more offensive based addition.