Grading the last 5 Toronto Blue Jays first round picks

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With the 2024 MLB Draft set to take place starting Sunday in Fort Worth, Texas, the Toronto Blue Jays are slated to pick 20th during the first round. The Blue Jays have actually had the luxury of picking in the top 20 for five of the past six seasons despite making the postseason on three separate occasions. In doing so, it ensured that they had the opportunity to restock their farm system with some quality players with hopes to maintain longer-term success.

In preparation for the highly-anticipated annual event on Sunday, let’s take a look back at the Blue Jays’ past five first-round selections. In addition, we will grade them based on how they have performed to date and the potential impact that they had brought to the team where applicable.

2019 – P Alek Manoah

Prior to his disastrous 2023 MLB season, no one would have argued that Alek Manoah was perhaps the Jays best first round pick of the 21st century. That was because his ascension into an elite star player happened over just a very short amount of time. After logging just 35 professional baseball innings, Manoah impressed enough to earn his promotion to the big leagues. From there, he did not intend to look back.

After a breakout rookie season in 2021 in which he went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, he followed it up with a Cy Young-calibre 2022 season by posting a stellar 16-7 record with a minuscule 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 180 strikeouts in 196.2 innings pitched. However, Manoah had a forgettable 2023 season where his control and command fell completely apart, leading to a horrific 5.89 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 starts. On top of that, he needed stints in the minors to work on his game and was ultimately shut down towards the end of the season to put out his misery.

2024 was suppose to be a redemption year for Manoah. When things appeared to be heading in the right direction, it was abruptly halted by an UCL injury in his right elbow that required season-ending surgery. As of now, the Jays are unsure whether or not they still have the 2021-22 version of Manoah in their hands. Nevertheless, his brief promising outings from 2024 certainly presented some optimism. But until he can prove again that he can consistently be the Manoah of old, he averages out to a respectable C based on his overall performance.

Grade: C

2020 – SS Austin Martin

At the time, Austin Martin was considered the best pure hitter of his draft class back in 2020. So when he miraculously fell to the Blue Jays in the fifth spot in the draft, many believed that Toronto hit the jackpot with the pick. For someone who hit over .370 with a 1.000+ OPS in each of his final two years in college, no one was doubting that he couldn’t fulfill his promise in becoming a future elite hitter.

However, his tenure with the Jays’ organization would be short-lived as he became part of the trade package sent to the Minnesota Twins that brought in scintillating starter José Berríos at the 2021 trade deadline. Since then, Martin has worked his way up the Twins’ minor league system and has successfully made his MLB debut with the team this season. In 47 games, he has hit .266 with a .702 OPS, 27 runs scored, 9 doubles, 1 home run, 9 RBI and 6 stolen bases. Martin hasn’t turned out to be the prolific hitter he was expected to be as of yet. Neither has he developed his power with just 16 career home runs to date. Nevertheless, he has shown flashes of his potential and remains a work in progress.

Based on just Martin’s overall performance so far, the grade for the pick would have been a lot lower that one would expect. But keep in mind he was a key trade chip that was utilized to bring Berríos to town. Added to the fact that Berríos had done his part in stabilizing the front end of the Jays’ rotation in three of the past four seasons, the grade pans out to a solid B from the Jays’ perspective.

Grade: B

2021 – P Gunnar Hoglund

Known for his electric strikeout ability, Gunnar Hoglund was actually predicted to be a solid top-ten pick among the 2021 draft class. However, an untimely injury to his pitching elbow that required Tommy John surgery ended his 2021 season early. As a result, many prospective teams stayed away from the promising prospect with concerns of his health. He ultimately fell into the laps of the Blue Jays at the 19th overall pick in the first round.

Hoglund would suffer the same fate as Martin though, as he became the centrepiece of a trade package going the other way to Oakland in exchange for star third baseman Matt Chapman. The only difference was that Hoglund didn’t end up seeing a single game of action in the Jays’ organization prior to being dealt, whereas Martin had 56 games under his belt such that they could gauge what they had in him. As of now, the gamble made by the Jays in dealing an unknown commodity in Hoglund may have paid off. He has yet to progress beyond the Double-A level despite now into his third minor league season with Oakland. Although, things may be starting to coming around for him this year, as he has posted a solid 9-4 record with a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 84 strikeouts in 93.2 innings pitched.

Like Martin, Hoglund's grade is more dictated by the trade chip he turned himself into than the performances he gave to the Blue Jays organization. These two first-rounders turned into Jose Berrios and Matt Chapman, both of whom were positive contributors to the big league squad, which makes someone like Hoglund more valuable as a trade chip than anything else.

Grade: B-

2022 – P Brandon Barriera

The Blue Jays took a huge gamble in 2022 when they chose to draft Brandon Barriera out of American Heritage High School. In doing so, he became the Jays first 1st round pick coming out of high school since Jordan Groshans in 2018. They sure hoped that Barriera would pan out much better than how Groshans ended up. After all, there were sky-high expectations for Barriera as he was ranked second among the Jays’ top prospects according to MLB Pipeline after coming out of the draft year.

However, the growth and development of Barriera for the past couple of seasons have been significantly derailed as he had been plagued by injuries. In total, he has only made 8 starts in his professional baseball career, posting an 0-2 record with a 4.57 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, along with 10 walks and 26 strikeouts in 21.2 innings pitched. Nevertheless, he did give a glimpse of his potential when he gave up zero hits and zero runs with 6 strikeouts in his professional debut.

With the limited exposure and small sample size that we have seen so far with Barriera, it is difficult to gauge how his performance has been and what he projects to be in the future. But if injuries keep becoming a more concerning and ongoing issue for the inspiring 20-year-old, that could potentially limit his upside (think Nate Pearson). As a result, the pick should get a D for now until he can show what he can do once he gets over his health issues.

Grade: D

2023 – SS Arjun Nimmala

Finally, we have the 18-year-old sensation Arjun Nimmala. Selected 20th by the Jays from the 2023 MLB Draft out of Strawberry Crest High School, Nimmala became the highest ever first-generation Indian-American player to be drafted across the four major U.S. professional sports leagues. With his intricate background in cricket, he brought along with him a unique skill set to aid his game of baseball. In doing so, it helped put him among the elite in the 2023 draft class.

Nimmala started off his professional baseball career playing for the Rookie-level FCL Blue Jays in 2023, where he batted .200 with an .820 OPS, 7 runs scored, 3 RBI and 1 stolen base in 9 games played. More impressively, he demonstrated great plate discipline at such a very young age, walking 14 times while striking out only eight times. This season, Nimmala has split his time between the FCL Blue Jays and Single-A Dunedin. In 48 total games, he has posted a .219 average with a .791 OPS, along with 30 runs scored, 11 doubles, 5 triples, 6 home runs, 17 RBI and 5 stolen bases. His hitting may be still raw, but he has certainly shown he can also get things done on the basepaths with his speed. His fielding is still a work in progress, as he has made 14 errors in just 54 total career games for a .933 fielding percentage.

Currently ranked third on Jays Journal top prospects list, Nimmala has still a long journey ahead of him in terms of making it to the big leagues. But given his talent, potential and skill set, he will have a good shot at making it to the show in due time. For the time being, seeing that he still has multiple aspects of his game that he needs to work on and polish up, the pick is worth a C+ as of this moment.

Grade: C+

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