Grading the Blue Jays’ last offseason through the first half of the 2023 season

After successfully making the MLB playoffs in 2022 before bowing out to the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card Series, the Toronto Blue Jays looked to alter and bolster their roster at the same time during the 2022-23 offseason to increase their chances at the postseason once again this year. In doing so, Jays’ GM Ross Atkins and the front office were actively busy throughout the winter, non-tendering several players, signing key free agents, along with pulling off a couple of surprising trades that elicited mixed reactions from the Jays’ faithful.

Here, we take a look at the outcomes of those offseason moves by Atkins, and how they have helped, or perhaps even hindered, the Jays’ performance so far this year at the midway mark of the season.

1. Key offseason free agent signings

Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt has been rock solid for the Jays so far in 2023. Having helped stabilize the starting rotation after the departure of Ross Stripling, Bassitt has pitched to a respectable 8-5 record, with a 4.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 102 strikeouts over 109.2 innings. His numbers may be slightly higher than his usual career standards, but he has certainly kept the Jays in it for most of the games that he started, and has hung in there during the stretch in which the Jays utilized a four-man rotation.

Grade: B+

Kevin Kiermaier

When the Jays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year deal to be their king patrol in the outfield this season, many were expecting just superb defence all around for the three-time Gold Glover. However, he has certainly gone above and beyond what was expected of him, adding some unexpected offensive punch to his strong season thus far in 2023 with his new team. He has hit .269 with a .749 OPS, 34 runs scored, 11 doubles, five triples, four home runs, 19 RBI and 10 stolen bases, to go along with three outfield assists and 13 defensive runs saved. Basically he has done it all, and if it wasn’t for his recent slower stretch, he would have received an even higher grade for sure.

Grade: A-

Brandon Belt

Brandon Belt had a horrendous start to the season as a new member of the Jays, in which he struck out at an astronomical rate, along with providing practically no run production for the first month of the season. That itself could have put him down with a failing grade, but fortunately, Belt drastically turned his season around and has become more what was expected of him when he first signed with the team. For the season, Belt is hitting .246, with an OPS of .785, 26 runs scored, 16 doubles, six home runs, and 20 RBI. In addition, he has endeared the trust of his manager and his teammates and has hit higher in the lineup in prime run producing spots as a result. His recent solid production has helped bring back up his grade a bit.

Grade: B

Chad Green

When Chad Green was signed by the Jays during the offseason, it was already known that he would be out for majority of the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and probably won’t make it back into the lineup until at least near the trade deadline. But given his past history of excellence and coming up big in key moments, the Jays went out and took a flyer on him, hoping that the dividends will eventually pay off in the near future and the year beyond by signing him to a two-year deal worth only $8.5 million.

Grade: N/A (since he has been on the IL all season)

Overall key offseason free agent signings grade: B+ - Despite some inconsistency in producing at times, in general, all of Atkins’ free agent signings have made an impact on the team’s successful run so far this year. They will be counted upon more heavily in the second half, with the return of Green being potentially a huge difference maker for the Jays’ bullpen down the stretch.

2. Key offseason trades

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho

With an excess of catchers in the organization, Atkins took full advantage of that to address the Jays’ defensive needs in the outfield by dealing top prospect Gabriel Moreno, along with long-time Jay-favourite Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to Arizona for defensive stalwart Daulton Varsho. Varsho has certainly delivered in the defensive side of his game, with 16 DRS, seven outfield assists, and a .995 fielding percentage with just one error all season. With numbers even excelling those of Kiermaier’s, he has definitely been more than just as advertised for sure. On the other hand, his offence still leaves a lot to be desired, as he was expected to have a breakout year hitting in a hitter’s friendly ballpark like the Rogers Centre. However, up until the All-Star break, he has hit only .214, with an OPS of .645, with 12 home runs, 30 RBI, and 11 stolen bases, solid numbers, but not great.

For Gurriel Jr., he has had a huge bounce back season with the Diamondbacks after a severe power outage last year with the Jays. His offensive output of 15 home runs, 54 RBI, together with a .263 batting average and .810 OPS was enough to earn him a spot in this year’s All-Star game as well. For Moreno, he has had an up and down season so far, with a slow start, followed by a hot stretch, then followed by a cold streak, but overall, has performed admirably in his rookie season with a .267 average with 10 doubles, two home runs and 26 RBI. But most impressively has been his defensive performance, having committed only one error all season, as well as throwing out 47% of the baserunners.

Trade Grade: B – Varsho’s defence has certainly helped make a huge difference for the Jays with their newly formed outfield this year. However, they are definitely missing some of the big time offence Gurriel Jr. had been providing, along with Moreno’s defensive capabilities, as Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are a combined below 18% in throwing out baserunners.

Teoscar Hernández to the Seattle Mariners for Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko

Part of the Jays offseason plan was to improve the outfield defence, so with Teoscar Hernández being one of the liabilities in the outfield in previous years, he was dealt to Seattle for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Swanson has been a revelation for the Jays’ bullpen, forming a strong duo with Jordan Romano in closing out ballgames. For the season, he is 2-2 with a whopping 21 holds, along with a 3.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts in 42.2 innings pitched. Macko, on the other hand, has struggled mightily with the Jays’ High-A affiliate Vancouver Canadians, but still has time in his development to turn it around.

Hernández had a slow start to the 2023 season with the Mariners, before busting out big time. In doing so, he has hit .250 with a .744 OPS, with 15 home runs and 50 RBI, numbers that seemed quite similar to Gurriel’s.

Trade Grade: B+ - Not counting Macko, since he is still developing, but Swanson has been everything the Jays expected him to be, and probably would have deserved an A if it wasn’t for the offensive output that Hernández has delivered on that the Jays currently lack somewhat of.

Chavez Young to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Zach Thompson

For this minor trade transaction, the Jays acquired Zach Thompson from Pittsburgh in exchange for prospect Chavez Young for starting pitching depth. This trade could be summed up easily in that it helped neither team. Thompson struggled while pitching for the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate Buffalo Bisons for much of the 2023 season and was never called up even when the starting rotation was in need. Not only that, he was later outrighted to Buffalo and removed from the 40-man roster. As for Chavez Young, he has regressed in his development and doesn’t appear to be making the big leagues any time soon.

Trade Grade: D+ - The trade didn’t end up helping anyone, but it hurt the Jays more because when they needed the pitching depth to fill the hole in the rotation when Alek Manoah needed a stint in the minors, the so-called depth Thompson brought wasn’t even given a single thought.

Overall key offseason trades grade: B – The Thompson for Young trade is practically negligible, so the other two trades kind of evened themselves out as they have ended up helping the Jays improve certain areas (defence and pitching), but leaving a whole lot of deficiency in another (offence) as a result.

Pitching trio: Ross Stripling, Julian Merryweather, Anthony Kay

For former Jay Ross Stripling, it has been a nightmarish season so far for him in 2023. After signing a two-year contract with the San Francisco Giants, Stripling has gone on to produce one of his worst seasons so far in his career, pitching to a 6.37 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, giving up 29 earned runs including 11 home runs, 11 walks and 34 strikeouts in just 41 innings of work. In comparison, Bassitt has been the ideal replacement for Stripling, and has been producing numbers similar to what Stripling gave the Jays last year.

In the case for Julian Merryweather, apparently a change in scenery has done some wonders for him. Despite being a little shaky with his control at times leading to a higher than normal walk rate, Merryweather has put up a solid season with the Chicago Cubs, going 2-0 with a career best 3.35 ERA, with 51 strikeouts in just 37.2 innings pitched. For Anthony Kay, who was also picked up by the Cubs in the offseason off waivers from the Jays, he began the season in the minor leagues, but was recently selected to the MLB roster in June. In his brief eight-game stint so far, he has a tidy 1.59 ERA, but has seen limited action, pitching only 5.2 innings in total. So from the small sample size, his performance is still up for debate if he can keep it up for the rest of the season.

Grade: A- - Bassitt has been reliable and dependable in the Jays’ starting rotation, allowing the ballclub to forget about Stripling, who is having a forgettable year so far. Some of Merryweather’s strikeout ability would have came in handy for their bullpen lacking strong flamethrowers, but at least the Jays’ bullpen have been more or less steady in recent weeks.

Overall notable players non-tendered grade: A – The Jays have not lost a beat in their production and performance after the departure of all of these players and in fact, those that have replaced them have done even better, making these moves among the best of Atkins’ work this past offseason.

4. Overall team performance as a result of those offseason transactions

Offence: C – Sacrificing a large part of the offence from last year has hurt the Jays from time to time this year, especially during key hitting situations that could have changed the outcome of the ballgame. Some of their big guns such as Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has eased some of the pain at times, but both Hernández and Gurriel have been consistently coming through in the clutch when hitting with runners in scoring position this year, something the Jays really, really miss for sure.

Defence: A – Despite the offence lacking at times, one thing is for sure, the offseason moves has definitely pushed the Jays’ defence up to another level, as the whole team seemed to be providing solid defence all around, and in particular the elite defence from the outfield has been a huge difference maker for the Jays this season. So I guess sometimes, you win some, you lose some.

Pitching A- - Even though the Jays’ pitching may seemed shaky at times this year, the additions of Bassitt and Swanson, along with the subtractions of Stripling, Merryweather, and Kay have done the Jays way more good than harm so far in 2023.

Overall team performance grade:  B+ - One could continue to keep criticizing and scrutinizing Atkins, but after reviewing his tidy work this past offseason, he has in fact done an admirable job in reshaping the Jays into a more defensive, pitching heavy team, while at the same time keeping them competitive for a playoff spot. The key part now is what Atkins can do before the trade deadline to take this team to the next level and to the top, and hopefully to more than just one round of playoff action this year at the end of the season.