Four tiers of lineup upgrades for the Blue Jays

My goodness is there a lot to discuss in the land of the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are coming off of a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, one that ended up symbolizing what was the 2023 season. A year in which things were frequently a the 1-yard line, but ended in an inability to execute and get the job done when it mattered. Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays front office have continued to state a big move is coming, and both fans and experts alike believe that this hypothetical move is necessary to push them to that next level their return to competitiveness.

The Jays have numerous holes on their 26-man roster, primarily on the offensive side. While a move to acquire a pitcher is possible, with many high-talent targets still out there to be had, this area is far from the most pressing to address. The concern lies in the offence, as this team is genuinely without a third baseman, needs a capable bat to enter the fold in the outfield, and would benefit from filling the vacancy that Brandon Belt has created in the DH/1B role.

While things may seem bleak in terms of who’s available, a more critical look reveals many high-potential targets on the market that could be acquired either through trade or through free agency. Some of the listed targets may be a pipe-dream, while some would be seen by many fans as disappointing. Regardless, options are out there, and this front office is seemingly committed to adding an impact player to this already talented roster.

Tier 4

The first tier is a compilation of players that could be acquired at a relatively small cost. These players are primarily reclamation projects. Guys with talent and a resume to their name but haven’t produced at that level in the recent past. 

Joey Votto

To start, this would be fun. The man from Etobicoke would look to step directly into the role that Brandon Belt is expected to leave behind. That being the veteran on-base machine who will primarily DH against righties, occasionally play first, and could swat at least 15 homers if healthy for the better part of 130 games.

Votto is coming off of a season in which he returned from a major surgery to repair his torn rotator cuff. Entering his age-40 season, it’s a fair take to assume that his days of middle-of-the-order production are behind him. However, the former MVP is a season removed from being in the 89th percentile in walk percentage and the 78th percentile in barrel percentage. This frequency of walks and hard contact would be a welcome addition to the Jays lineup, with his left-handedness being a bonus. 

Signing Votto would come with some risk, primarily lying in the unknown of what exactly his production would look like given his age. With an OPS+ of 99 through 65 games last year, he was about a league average hitter as a 39-year-old off a major surgery. At a cheap price, Votto could be worth taking a flyer on, at the dispense of a disappointed fan base that was expecting a bigger name at the DH spot.

Rhys Hoskins

A situation similar to Votto, though Hoskins would be a more exciting add given multiple factors. A younger player, Hoksins would be entering his age-31 season in 2024, is a likely candidate to be motivated on a one-year prove it deal after being out all of last season while recovering from a torn ACL, and has a more recent track record of being a legit, middle of the order threat. 

When healthy, Hoskins is an on-base and barrel machine being in at least the 78th percentile in walk percentage, chase percentage, barrel percentage, and sweet spot percentage. A guy who’s consistently getting on base and hitting the ball hard, motivated to produce, and fills the DH/1B role would be a great add to this Blue Jays lineup.

The risk, similar to Votto, is the unknown. Hoskins just missed an entire season, in addition to having the reputation of a below-average fielder. However, also similar to Votto, Hoskins would be worth the risk on a one year deal for a lineup looking for power. Hoskins would likely make more next year than Votto, but for a single season, that’s unlikely to matter to a front office on the hot seat.

Giovanny Urshela

The last reclamation project of this tier is former Blue Jay Gio Urshela. Urshela, a contact-first, versatile infielder, has taken massive strides in his career since his 2018 appearance in Toronto. The former Yankee and Angel is coming off a season which was cut short by a fractured pelvis in June. Now having recovered, he would be a great low cost addition to a team needing infield help, fitting up the Blue Jays alley quite nicely. 

A flyer on Urshela would see him taking over third base duties from Matt Chapman. Urshela would provide average defence with the ability to cover shortstop and second as well, and would do well in a run producing spot in the order, as he excels at putting bat on ball. Since the start of his Yankees tenure, the period of time that turned Urshela’s career around, Urshela has batted .291 while consistently getting on base. 

Tier 3

The next tier of players are moves that are close to guaranteed to provide an offensive impact, but wouldn’t classify as that big splash the front office has previously alluded to.

Joc Pederson

Pederson, a bat-first corner outfielder/DH, would slot into a run producing role in this lineup perfectly. Coming off a productive, two-year stint with the Giants, Pederson’s offensive approach took an interesting turn from one year to the next during that time.

During his All-Star 2022 season, Pederson was a hard hit merchant. This skillset put him in at least the 95th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage, resulting in .521 slugging percentage and a 146 OPS+. He did all this damage while being a slightly above average hitter in terms of selectivity, ranking in the 67th percentile in walk percentage. 

The season that just passed showed a dip in his power output. His homer total dropped from 23 to 15, with his OPS+ dropping over 30 points to a lower but still admirable 111. This came alongside a remarkable increase in plate discipline, with his walk percentage ballooning to a number in the 91st percentile. 

Should the Blue Jays offer Pederson a deal, it’s likely it would be for multiple years. They’d be close to guaranteed a player at least in the middle of the performances from those two seasons, a guy who barrels the ball with a keen awareness of the strike-zone. Though a little above a liability with the glove, Pederson's potential production would be hard to ignore. His bat is worth the decrease in overall defence, as the Jays would love a capable left-handed bat in the middle of their order.

Teoscar Hernandez

A more significant returning Blue Jay, this old friend would be sure to bring back some much needed power and provide a spark to this lineup. After a mediocre year in Seattle, which saw him post his lowest OPS+ since 2020, Teo is still a sure bet to hit at least 20 home runs and provide passible defence in a corner outfield spot.

Despite playing in a career-high 160 games, Hernandez just never really got it going in 2023. Both his power and on-base skills took a step back from his time with the Blue Jays, but betting on Teo at a seemingly smaller price tag could be a smart move for a front office looking to reinvigorate this offence.

Matt Chapman

Perhaps the most significant possible reunion, bringing back Chappy brings two big guarantees. Those being Gold Glove defence and barrels. It’s been said again and again, but Chapman’s production put next to his peripherals just doesn’t make any sense. He is too talented to doubt his power potential after a down year, and bringing him back solves multiple problems the Jays currently face.

Attempting to bring back Chapman gives them an above-average third baseman for the foreseeable future, injects power back into this lineup that would be lost without him, and continues a good relationship with super agent Scott Broras.

Jorge Soler

What could very likely be the highest potential bat of this group, the former home run champion would slot very well into a LF/DH platoon in this Blue Jays lineup. Soler is coming off a season which saw a 128 OPS+ over 137 games, including 36 homers and 75 RBI on a below-average hitting Marlins team.

Soler has been inconsistent through his MLB career, but last years peripherals offer an encouraging sign that continued success is on the horizon. He had a .374 xwOBA, putting him in the 93rd percentile, and also posted the second-best walk percentage of his career, a stellar 11.4%.

Tier 2

In this tier, the second-highest, are two players that we see as great fits for the needs of the Blue Jays, but could take an overpay to acquire and come with considerable question marks, despite their potential being very high.

Jonathan India

After their signing of Jeimer Candelario, the Cincinnati Reds should be looking to move an infielder. This could come down to shipping out a former Rookie of the Year in Jonathan India. The Florida native, after a few injury shortened seasons, has a career OPS+ of 105 with all of his big league time spent at second base. Having played mostly third base in the minors, and having a high offensive ceiling with a variety of skillsets, India represents a potentially “buy-low” candidate for a team looking for a new third baseman.

This may be a tough sell at first, but the more India is looked at, the more value is seen in taking a chance on him. As noted, fresh out of COVID in a year without a minor league season, India’s 2021 was about as good as the Reds could’ve hoped for. Through 150 games India sported a .835 OPS with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .376 on-base percentage. This dynamic skillset set him apart from other rookies that year, and he looked to be a fixture in the Reds lineup for years to come.

However, that wasn’t the case. Injuries and other prospects caught up to the young infielder, and India’s now the odd man out on an up-and-coming Reds team. He may not appear as the most attractive option at first, given his below average defence and lackluster recent history at the plate. Regardless, a change of scenery, a position he’s played before, and health could provide that second chance India is looking for with the Blue Jays.

India’s knack for getting on base could put him high in the order, possibly between Springer and Vladdy. Another bonus being he isn’t a free agent until 2027. A look at the Reds system would insinuate they’re looking for pitching prospects. Ricky Tiedemann aside, the Blue Jays have a variety of mid-level pitching prospects the Reds could take in a trade for their infielder. Names such as Bowden Francis, Adam Macko, Yosver Zulueta, or Chad Dallas could all entice the Reds into taking a chance, in exchange for parting with an infielder they currently don’t have a spot for.

Cody Bellinger

Continuing on the theme of high risk, high reward, we come to Cody Bellinger. Looking for a resurgence to his career, he found just that on the south side of Chicago, posting his best OPS+ since his MVP season in 2019 while providing high end defence in both centre field and first base.

What may seem like a surefire addition to this lineup, one that would fit into either the top or middle of the lineup while likely slotting into Kevin Kiermaier’s vacancy in centre, may require a more cautious look from this front office.

Bellinger’s slash line of .307/.356/.881 is obviously inspiring, and entering his age-28 season, he’s bound for a payday. However, Bellinger’s expected stats may warrant some caution from prospective teams. In contrast to his on-paper slash line, FanGraphs had his expected batting average was an alarming .270, and his expected slugging nearly a hundred points lower than is actual at .437. These inflated numbers compared to his expectations are a result of irregular hard contact and a lack of barrels on a regular basis. FanGraphs also projects Bellinger, in what should be another prime season going off age, to have substantial drops in all offensive categories, particularly his wRC+ dropping from 134 to 108. His projected fWAR of 2.6 is still respectable, but likely ballooned from his quality defence and definitely not worthy of his projected contract set to be between $150-$200M.