Four expectations Blue Jays fans have for 2024

1. Bounce-back seasons from key players

The first and most broad expectation amongst fans is simply that key players have bounce-back seasons. There were a variety of key contributors to the 2021 and 2022 teams that either weren’t all that noticeable, or disappeared entirely in 2023.

The most obvious is Alek Manoah, as the young right-hander went from Cy Young finalist to having a 5.87 ERA over just 87.1 innings. Multiple reasons have been identified or hinted at by different members of the media, but one thing is agreed upon, Manoah can bounce back and will compete for a job in the rotation come spring training. Despite the disappointing year, the rotation remained one of the best in baseball thanks to comebacks from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. Manoah's spot in the rotation became a cause for concern, and the team suffered as a result. A bounce-back to effectiveness for Manoah would be massive towards this teams success in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be seen as the second most disappointing player from last season, and one needing a bounce-back. While being 17% better than the average major league hitter in 2023, Guerrero's bat combined with his subpar defensive metrics totaled only 2 bWAR, good for twelve on the team. With his ceiling, skillset and history, Guerrero should be entering every season as one of the best players in the AL, not a middle of the pack hitter on his own team. His batted ball profiles and expected stats remain elite, it’s just a matter of putting it together and getting results consistently.

George Springer had his first healthy season since his days as a Houston Astro, but managed only a 102 OPS+ over those 154 games. Springer will need to hone his discipline at the plate and go back to making hard contact if he’s to stagnate his regression in 2024. Springer remains a multi-tool threat, even at 34-years of age. There’s reason to believe one of the captains on this roster can bounce back, and hopefully have another healthy season.

Lastly, there were some role players or guys not necessarily in the spotlight who didn’t seize their opportunities when presented. Despite being one of the best defensive players in baseball, Daulton Varsho took a step backward with the bat. It was theorized he was primed for a breakout once moving to a hitter friendly Rogers Centre, but that never materialized. Another role player who toiled in inconsistency was Cavan Biggio. With a 116 OPS+ over his first 159 games, paired with his versatility, Biggio had the makings of an effective big league player. However, since 2021, Biggio’s bat has regressed to around replacement level. When he is going good, he’s pulling the ball in the air and walking at an above average rate. If Biggio could get back to this level of production in 2024, the Blue Jays would have one of the games better utility-men, and possibly an intriguing trade candidate. 

2. Someone to step up

As mentioned, the Blue Jays have become perennially competitive. Regardless of how long this window will last, it’s worth noting that none of these seasons have been exceptional. The win total per season has topped out at 92. A respectable number, but not one that is breaking any records. The last great Blue Jays season, one that was full of clutch moments and dominating performances, came back in 2015. 

That season had quite the cast of characters. From breakouts like Marco Estrada and Chris Colabello, consistent veterans in Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and playoff push boosts like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Included in this group was one player that was feared by opposing teams all season, and always came through in clutch spots. Josh Donaldson won the American League MVP that season, as a testament to his efforts to push the Jays to 93 wins and their first division title in over 20 years. A 7.1 bWAR, as well as leading the league in RBI, runs scored and total bases, was the individual performance that pushed the Jays over the hump and brought them back to relevance.

With all the talent on this Blue Jays roster, who is going to be that guy for them? It looked like it was going to be Guerrero after his ridiculous 2021 season. Since then Vlad has taken a step back and no one on this roster has stepped up. Bo Bichette has been a stud his entire career, but nothing approaching the levels of 2021 Vlad or a 2015 Donaldson. As stated, the team has the depth. With All-Star caliber players and veteran leaders galore, this team needs someone, a position player, to step up.

If this expectation amongst fans is going to be met, it’s likely to be from someone internal, and the names are no mystery. Will Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. step up and become that MVP level talent capable of putting this team on their back?

3. Less mistakes

The Blue Jays entered 2023 with a new identity: that being a team that pitches well, plays exceptional defence, and excels at small ball. Two of those things happened, as the pitching staff was mostly phenomenal and the Jays won the team Gold Glove award for 2023. The small ball aspect was the one missing, despite it being the facet of their identity that was supposed to score the runs.

The Blue Jays leaned into more singles and walks with the hopes of it leading to more consistent runs. The opposite happened, as the club was routinely the worst clutch team in the sport and failed to capitalize on their opportunities. 

This lack of clutch may have led to pressing on the bases. The Blue Jays were horrible at running the bases in 2023, despite that being an emphasis from February and onward. FanGraphs' base running metric graded the Jays at a -12.5. The best baserunner as per FanGraphs was Daulton Varsho, who carried a 2.8 base running value. The worst was unsurprisingly Alejandro Kirk, who sported a whopping -10.3. It’s hard to hold this against Kirk, as is legs aren’t a weapon at all, but he was often thrown out on base running attempts that had no business of being made. Other guys who should’ve been better base runners, but weren’t, include Kevin Kiermaier, Bichette and Springer. All of them brought a value in the negatives on the bases.

This problem can find solution if it’s worked out between the players and coaching staff. The Blue Jays need to go back to hitting homeruns, of course. Nevertheless, being competent on the bases should be a bare minimum for a team competing for a division.

4. Postseason wins

This single expectation encapsulates all of the ones previously spoken of. This team needs to win a playoff game.

Making it to the playoffs, in spirit and in the hearts of fans, means nothing if their team gets sent home after two games. This has been the case in 2020, 2022, and now 2023. There is simply too much talent on this roster for it to become one of the butt of a joke every October.

In 2020, the Jays were just happy to be there. They had a fun but heavily flawed roster that stood little chance against a juggernaut of a Tampa Bay Rays team. Hyun Jin Ryu, Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez, Bichette, Rowdy Tellez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all enjoyed great seasons across the 60 games, but the depth just wasn’t there. If anything, it was a step in the right direction.

2021 was heartbreak, plain and simple. So many stellar performances and positive vibes wasted. It left a sour taste in the mouth of a hungry roster. One that would make the playoffs the following year.

2022 the Blue Jays lost the division to the Yankees after their historic start, but were still a really good team. However, their lack of fixing the bullpen at the deadline cost them, and they blew an eight run lead to a Mariners team that was not as good as them on paper. Nevertheless, the Jays were swept at home in embarrassing fashion. Drastic moves were made, and the composition of the team was shaken up, 2023 was going to be different.

2023 was definitely different, it was worse. The frustration from the 2022 Wild Card Series carried over the next 164 games in 2023. There was no clutch hitting, disappointing seasons all around, and a wasted season from an historic starting rotation. The Blue Jays, in some fan’s opinions, undeservedly squeaked into the playoffs, only to be silently discarded by a hot Minnesota Twins team that simply wanted it more. 

Things have to be different in 2024, and that is a sentiment echoed through the team’s front office, coaches, players, and most of all fans. Those fans expect postseason success. We’re not sure how long this window of competition will last, and this team needs to do something with it.