Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Monday, May 1 (Berrios Bounce Back Continues)

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17)
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The AL East has been the Thunderdome in the first month of the season, every team is above .500 and the Toronto Blue Jays at 18-10 are only third. The Boston Red Sox who are hosting Toronto for a four-game series this week are 15-14 and just clawed their way out of last place, where the Yankees now preside. This division is going to beat up on each other all season long and this series will just be another example of that. 

For Game 1 at Fenway Park, the Blue Jays and Red Sox both have former ace starting pitchers on the mound. Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays and Corey Kluber for the Red Sox. Berrios has had a few good starts in a row and might be recapturing that form with a 2-3 record and a 4.71 ERA that is not indicative of how good he’s been lately. Kluber on the other hand is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and might not ever get back to the good old days. 

With Berrios’ resurgence, Toronto is the favorite on the road in Game 1. Here are the odds for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox. 

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

My strategy for a while has been simple, fade Jose Berrios. It was also very profitable because he’s struggled mightily in Toronto, but it seems to be getting better all of the sudden. He allowed eight earned runs in his first start and four in his second but he’s only given up three total in his three starts since. He has 18 strikeouts to just two walks in those three recent starts and has allowed a total of 11 hits in 19.0 innings of work. He has a 2.37 FIP which is much better than his abysmal ERA and tells me that his success will continue as long as the defense can hold up behind him. 

Corey Kluber on the other side has no positive indicators at all. He was solid last start, but has a 6.76 FIP with his 6.75 ERA and 24 hits allowed in 24 innings with seven of those going over the fence, eight walks and two HBPs to just 20 strikeouts. It’s bad and not getting better anytime soon. 

The Blue Jays entire staff is dominant right now, if you throw out yesterday when they got beat 10-8. Prior to that they had won six straight games and only allowed five runs total over that stretch with three shutout wins. I’ll write yesterday’s game off and take the Jays to win in Boston. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change