Blue Jays vs. Rays: Who comes out on top of a position-by-position breakdown?

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The Tampa Bay Rays have been a thorn in the side of the Toronto Blue Jays for what seems like an eternity.

Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, Tampa always seems to have a top farm system, and hit on all their trades and free agent acquisitions.

In 2022, Kevin Cash’s team took a step backward, going from a franchise record of 100 wins and an AL East crown to 86 wins, which was good enough for a wild-card spot.

Catchers

With Mike Zunino signing with the Cleveland Guardians, it’ll be up to Francisco Mejía and Christian Bethancourt to man the catching duties for the Rays in 2023. Both saw plenty of playing time last season, with both players setting new career-highs in games played. I’d expect Mejía to be the main guy but expect both to see plenty of action. Mejía, with the biggest opportunity of his career, seems primed for a breakout.

It’s a sneaky big year for Jays catching as well. If Danny Jansen can avoid the injuries that limited him to just 72 games last year, hitting 20 home runs is a real possibility. Meanwhile, Alejandro Kirk will be eager to prove he’s more like the player who hit .315 in the first half of last season than the one who batted just .246 after the All-Star break.

Advantage: Blue Jays (but not by as much as you might think)

First Base

With Ji-Man Choi now in Pittsburgh, this is another position group that’s somewhat in a state of flux. Isaac Paredes has shown some real thunder in his bat and seems poised to receive the bulk of the load here. He hit 20 home runs in just 331 at-bats a year ago and would benefit from a full season’s worth of swings.

The Brandon Belt signing gives the Blue Jays a different look and increased depth at first base. Obviously, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get the brunt of the playing time and will attempt to put up numbers closer to his starry 2021 campaign than his still-good but could-be-better 2022 season.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Second Base

It will probably be a mix of Brandon Lowe, and Taylor Walls here for the Rays, with Vidal Bruján or Jonathan Aranda also available for depth. Tampa has one of the more fluid rosters in the majors and will have Paredes, who played 43 games at second in ’22, at that spot too. Lowe was a top-10 MVP candidate in 2021, with 39 homers, but struggled with injuries and had a sub-.700 OPS in 65 games last year.

Similarly, Toronto will go with a platoon of Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal, with a bit of Cavan Biggio thrown in here and there. This trio, all of whom can play multiple positions, can allow manager John Schneider to play the hot hand and he will have to as all three are known as streaky hitters.

Advantage: It’s a tie

Shortstop

This is the most interesting position group matchup and the one that could have the biggest swing. If Wander Franco can put it all together, he could be the best shortstop in the American League. Like Mejia and Paredes, Franco is hoping increased playing time and at-bats will generate more production. The Rays are banking on Franco showing a good return on the massive 11-year, $182M investment made in him.

Bo Bichette has led the American League in hits over the last two seasons and yet the narrative with him is that he can reach a higher level. He finished this past season on a scorching tear (.345/.562/.948, 10 HR) over the last 58 games but that followed a .259/.417/.720 clip over the first 101 so there are still some questions about consistency.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Third Base

Matt Chapman continues to be one of the best defensive players in the sport and, although he was up-and-down with the bat, his overall offensive numbers were up from 2021. If Chapman can find a way to get back to his production from 2018-2019, it would really add length to an already imposing lineup.

Yandy Díaz has established himself as one of the better hitters in the American League. With his hard-hit and exit velocity numbers, it’s always surprised me that he didn’t hit more home runs, topping out with a career-best 14 in 2019. However, his defensive stats are below-average, and the Rays may be smart to play Paredes more at the hot corner as he was above-average as a fielder there.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Outfield

There could be plenty of highlight-reel catches during the season series between these two teams. The Jays shifted their outfield by bringing in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho which will allow George Springer to slide over to right field which is probably where he belongs at this stage of his career.

Manuel Margot is the wily veteran of the Rays group at 28 years of age and he’s been of the better defensive outfielders over the last several years. Jose Siri showed some pop (22 XBH in 325 Abs) and has tremendous range in center. The Rays obviously have confidence in his abilities to let Kiermaier walk in free agency. Randy Arozarena is best hitter and the worst defender of the trio.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Rotation

If Tyler Glasnow can return to the form that he showed prior to his injury in 2021, he’d pair very nicely with Shane McClanahan atop the Rays rotation. Zach Eflin was signed in free agency, and Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs round out the Rays five.

Toronto beefed up its rotation with the addition of Chris Bassitt, but after that they’re still relying on a José Berríos turnaround, which is no sure thing.

Advantage: Rays

Bullpen

The Jays added to their bullpen by trading for Erik Swanson, who’s coming off a terrific season. Adding him to a relief corps that includes Jordan Romano, Yimi García, Adam Cimber, Anthony Bass, Trevor Richards, and Tim Mayza improves an already solid unit.

However, comparing it to a Rays’ stable that features Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche, Jalen Beeks, Ryan Thompson, and Shawn Armstrong, the Blue Jays will be hard-pressed to come back late against this team.

Advantage: Rays

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Catchers

First Base

Second Base

Shortstop

Third Base

Outfield

Rotation

Bullpen

Schedule