Blue Jays vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Saturday, June 17 (Back Toronto against overrated Dunning)

Jun 15, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) fields a ball
Jun 15, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) fields a ball / Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays pulled out a 2-1 win against the American League West leading Texas Rangers, can the team make it a winning series as it jockeys for AL positioning?

The Jays continue to trail the first place Tampa Bay Rays, but are playing like one of the elite teams in the American League. The team faces Dane Dunning and the Rangers on Saturday, but is Dunning ripe for a stepback as we draw closer to the halfway point of the season?

Here are the odds for Saturday's matchup:

Blue Jays vs. Rangers odds, run line and total

Blue Jays vs. Rangers prediction and pick

Dunning has one of the most glaring profiles of any starting pitcher this season, his 2.75 ERA in seven starts and 15 appearances is masking that he has an xERA of 4.97 on the year. Dunning has been allowing an incredibly low rate of home runs, less than five percent of his fly balls allowed have left the yard, something that won't keep up heading into Saturday's matchup.

He faces a Blue Jays team that is sixth in OPS against right handed pitching this season, hitting 70 of its 82 home runs against righty arms.

The Blue Jays offense is one of the best in baseball, but the Rangers are even better. However, I have more faith in Toronto's pitching staff that will start opener Trevor Richards on Saturday and is anchored by a bullpen that is top 10 in collective ERA.

Richards has been rock solid as a swing man of sorts this season, pitching to a 3.30 ERA in 30 innings and has an xERA of 2.95. While he has a high walk rate (more than four per nine innings) I trust Blue Jays pitching staff to keep a lid on the vaunted Rangers offense.

Meanwhile, Dunning is in for some harsh regression on Saturday so I'll grab Toronto at this underdog price.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.