Blue Jays vs. Orioles: Who has the upper hand in a position-by-position breakdown?

First Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s numbers went down in almost every category after his monstrous 2021 campaign. He still produced a 132 OPS+ with 32 home runs, a career-high 35 doubles, and 97 RBI. Valddy’s defense was also significantly improved and he was recognized with his first Gold Glove award. Something in between, say a .900 OPS with 40 homers and more hardware, seems well within reach this season. 

Similarly, Ryan Mountcastle experienced a power dip last year, going from 33 bombs in 2021 to just 22 last season. He’s not known as a great defensive player and has only achieved a 2.2 WAR over the past two seasons. Mountcastle terrorized the Jays pitching staff to the tune of a 1.064 OPS with seven homers in 68 ABs in 2021 and then a 1.003 OPS with five more knocks in 2022.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Second Base

It’s looking like it’s gonna be a Santiago Espinal/Whit Merrifield combo platter for the Jays in 2023. It’s a strategy that could be ideal. Santi was hot coming out of the gate last year with a .298/.451/.801 slash line with five big flies and 18 doubles over his first 62 games. Meanwhile, Whit caught fire during the stretch run with a 20-51 (.417) clip with four homers and 11 RBI over the last 13 games.

Expect to see a lot of Gunnar Henderson, the O’s other prized prospect that debuted last season, in the middle of the diamond. He may get some reps at shortstop, and third base too, but either way, Henderson should get plenty of opportunities after flashing some pop in a 34-game cameo last year. Adam Frazier adds another element to this rivalry, as he was a key player in the Mariners' wild-card victory in October.

Advantage: Orioles

Shortstop

Jorge Mateo broke out in 2022, leading the AL in steals while showcasing some nifty glovework and power potential, with 45 extra-base hits.

Bo Bichette seemed to be stuck in the mud for much of last season but broke out in a big way by hitting .345 with 30 XBH over the final 58 games. He’s knocking on the door to a top-10 AL MVP season but needs to cut down on his errors.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Third Base

The results of the latest Gold Glove award for this position add intrigue to the upcoming season series. Three-time winner Matt Chapman did not win as some expected. Instead, Ramón Urías took home the trophy and he deserved it.

Urías had a higher dWAR (1.9 to 0.6). more defensive runs saved (14 to 2), and outs above average (7 to 1) in the first full-time role of his career. He was a slightly above-average hitter (.720 OPS, 16 HR) but was held to just a .549 OPs in 12 games versus the Jays' pitching. Chapman put up good power numbers and had his best year since 2019 but he will look to improve his average (.229) and regain the award he’s so synonymous with.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Outfield

The Blue Jays have created quite a buzz with their new-look outfield. With a clear goal of improving run prevention, the trio of George Springer, Kevin Kiermaier, and Daulton Varsho shapes up as on of the best defensive outfields around and should produce plenty of offense as well.

Baltimore’s outfield of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander combined for 65 homers in 2022, with Santander accounting for 33 of those. Mullins had a huge 2021 season and regressed some last year but still has great speed, and decent power, and can cover a lot of ground in the field. Austin Hays’ numbers also were down a bit last year but he’s an above-average hitter. 

Advantage: It's a tie

Starting Rotation

The Jays beefed up their rotation with the addition of Chris Bassitt. Two pitchers will have a major impact on the success of the O’s rotation, John Means and Kyle Gibson. Means has been solid since finishing second in ROY voting in 2019 but was limited to just eight innings in 2022. Gibson was terrific for the Rangers in ’21 but back around his mediocre career numbers a year ago.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Bullpen

Both teams have gotten a shot in the arm with recent additions to their respective relief corps. The Jays added Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández trade, and Baltimore signed Mychal Givens, who was previously with the club between 2015 and 2020.  

Jordan Romano has established himself as one of the premier closers in the majors. Félix Bautista excelled in the same role after Jorge López was dealt. Considering how close some of their games have been, the bullpens could play a huge role in the outcome of next year’s season series.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Although the Jays appear to have the upper hand in many of these categories, the Orioles also seem to be greater than the sum of their parts, and should be viewed as dangerous. Whatever the individual performances may be, these will be fun games to watch in 2023.