Blue Jays vs. Mets prediction and odds for Saturday, June 3 (Berrios undervalued)

May 23, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17)
May 23, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Is it time to start betting on Jose Berrios?

The Blue Jays right hander had been struggling since getting traded to the team in the summer of 2021, and he has been a trendy fade, but is it starting to turn after a run of five straight strong starts?

Berrios and the Blue Jays continue a road series in New York against the Mets, who start struggling righty Tylor Megill. Is this a good time to back the Blue Jays as small underdogs?

First, the odds and then our best bet:

Blue Jays vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Blue Jays vs. Mets prediction and pick

While the market once rated Berrios too highly, it's time to start backing him as an underdog as he continues to put together strong starts. He is off of a month in which he posted a 3.19 ERA across six starts and five consecutive starts in which he allowed less than three earned runs despite opponents hitting .307 in balls in play.

The key has been that Berrios is generating more groundball contact, a career high 47.8% this season, which has led to his home run rate dropping, down to an 11% home run to fly ball rate.

I believe Berrios can keep it going against a league average Mets hitting team that is reliant on walks to get on base. However, Berrios is walking less than three batters and is finding ways to work around disciplined lineups.

Further, the Blue Jays offense that is top five in stats such as wRC+, which quantifies quality of run scoring chances against Megill. He is allowing nearly 10 hits per nine innings and walking more than four batters. Overall, he has a 4.67 ERA and an xERA 5.94.

The betting market has drifted too far on Berrios, so I'll buy the discount and back the Blue Jays as road underdogs with the better lineup and pitcher on hte mound.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.