The Toronto Blue Jays have a huge series beginning on Monday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Los Angeles is in first place in the NL West and is No. 2 in the latest odds to win the World Series, but the team has been beatable this season since it has dealt with a ton of injuries to its rotation.
Meanwhile, the Jays are creeping closer to the AL East lead, sitting just 6.5 games back of the Baltimore Orioles heading into this series.
Because of the injuries to its rotation, Los Angeles is sending out youngster Michael Grove (2-2, 6.40 ERA) on Monday against Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.39 ERA).
Can Grove – who won his last start against Baltimore – slow down a Blue Jays offense that ranks in the top 10 in Major League Baseball in OPS this season?
Here are the latest odds and my best bet:
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers prediction and pick
While Grove did pitch well in his last start, I have a hard time trusting a pitcher with an ERA north of 6.00 and a FIP of 4.82 against a strong Jays offense.
Grove ranks in just the 14th percentile in expected ERA this season, and it’s unlikely he gives the Dodgers a ton of length in this game. The young righty has just one outing where he pitched more than five innings, and that came in a matchup where he entered in relief.
That means we’re going to see plenty of the Dodgers’ bullpen, which has a 4.10 ERA on the season.
Meanwhile, Berrios has been terrific this season, especially since May.
Going back to May 6, Berrios has made 14 starts, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 11 of them while leading the Jays to a 10-4 record in those games. He’s posted a 2.64 ERA over that stretch.
Toronto also has a top 10 bullpen ERA this season, so I like the Jays to hold this game down if they can get out to a hot start against Grove.
Toronto is one of the best upset picks on the board on Monday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.