Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction and odds for Wednesday, April 19 (Trust Jose Berrios to bounce back)

Mar 28, 2023; Clearwater, Florida, USA;  Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) throws
Mar 28, 2023; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) throws / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros will wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday night. The third game will serve as a tiebreaker after the two teams split the first two games of the series.

Tonight's battle will be a showdown between two pitchers who have been disappointing for their respective teams early in the season.

Jose Berrios (7.98 ERA) will take the mound for the Jays and he'll face off against Luis Garcia (7.71 ERA) of the Astros. So, which pitcher should we back with our money tonight?

Let's look at the odds and then I'll let you know.

Blue Jays vs. Astros odds, run line, and total

Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction and pick

Both pitchers have ugly ERAs to start the season, but only one has shown signs that may point toward positive regression. That pitcher is Berrios of the Jays.

Sure, his ERA is bad, but let's look a little bit deeper and take a peak at his FIP. FIP stands for "Field Independent Pitching" which gives a better indication of how the pitcher is truly performing as it takes the defense out of the equation.

Well, Berrios has a FIP of 2.36, significantly better than his ERA of 7.98.

How does Garcia's FIP compare to his ERA? It's not much better, coming in at 5.67 compared to his ERA of 7.71. That tells me that while both starts have similar ERAs, it's Berrios who has been performing much better.

Then there's the two offenses. The Blue Jays have been leagues above the Astros so far, especially when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays rank 7th in OPS against righties, while the Astros rank 22nd.

That's even more important tonight with the starting pitcher matchup being a battle of righties.

I'll trust Berrios and the Jays to take care of business in Houston tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.