Blue Jays: Top factors for a division title in 2023

1. A deep bullpen

The first area of the team that can steer them in either the wrong or right direction is the performance of their bullpen. No doubt an important part of any competing team, the bullpen is the backbone of a club throughout a 162 game season.

In case you didn’t notice, this area was a problematic one for our Jays last season.

While Jordan Romano cemented himself as a great closer and guys like Adam Cimber and Yimi García showed they were reliable, there were often times where the lack of depth was exposed. Utilizing Taylor Saucedo and Trent Thornton in high leverage spots during periods of last season was frustrating.

The front office put work in to ensure this won't happen in 2023, as the acquisition of Erik Swanson and starting the season with Anthony Bass gives the Jays two more high leverage relievers this year that they didn’t have in years past. These guys, paired with the exceptional middle relief talents of Cimber and Mayza, makes for a deep bullpen.

Once camp breaks and the roster is finalized, there is certain to be notable omissions from the final picture.

Zach Pop, a guy who no doubt belongs in a major league pen, is likely ticketed for Buffalo for at least the first few weeks of the season. Nate Pearson, whose stuff has been up-and-down this spring, is without a clear spot off the rip as well. Non-roster invitees, though with little track record to their names, also have a slim chance of breaking camp with the team. Jay Jackson, Paul Fry, and Luke Bard among these guys.

Let's not forget about Chad Green, as the former Yankee stopper is set to make a mid-season return to the mound. He’ll step right into a high leverage role for a team that all of a sudden has a multitude of options to work late in games.

All of this depth has been discussed without even mentioning the prospects. Ricky Tiedemann and Yosver Zulueta, both of whom are expected to see the majors at some point this year, will no doubt factor into the club's mix of pitchers. Hagen Danner is another to keep an eye on. Having recently became a pitcher fulltime, his fastball , slider combo projects him to be a capable bullpen arm.

Also worth mentioning, when’s the last time you’ve seen a Blue Jays camp with this many guys working in the high 90s? Danner, Zulu, Tiedemann, Julian and Junior Fernández, and Pearson have all impressed with their velocity in the last week or so.

These names and exploration of depth culminate in the ultimate conclusion that the front office acknowledged their lack of bullpen depth. This is an area that should be a joy to watch in the coming months, and a big determinant of their quest for a division title.

2. Health and good vibes

The Jays missed the mark of meeting their full potential last year. There were underperformers, inconsistencies, and naturally, injuries. While rebounds can be expected, it’s the health of certain players that are set to be a focal point of the team’s success this year.

Kevin Kiermaier is the first player to keep an eye on. How healthy is he, and how good will he be if so? Kiermaier is the defensive leader of a now Gold Glove-caliber outfield. While the depth is there to cover for him should he spend some time on the IL, having Kiermaier patrol the outfield for at least 130 games will lead to countless runs being prevented for the Jays pitching staff.

Brandon Belt is another guy who’s injury history raises some eyebrows. Having played with an injured knee the last couple of years, he’s an intriguing bounce-back candidate after an offseason surgery to repair the troublesome leg issue. Through the 2020 and 2021 season across 146 games, the towering first baseman had an OPS+ of 165. That plummeted to a mark of 92 this past season.

Belt is set to be the team's primary designated hitter and will play first base on occasion. A healthy lower half for the former All-Star has the potential to yield a full and productive season for the first time in a while. A dangerous left-handed hitter at the top of the order would be a welcome sight throughout 2023, and Belt was a great choice to fill the role.

The player with the most game changing ability who’s dealt with injuries the last few seasons is obviously George Springer. Despite a slew of injuries all over his body, Springer has still produced when he’s been on the field. An OPS+ of 135 through 211 games over the last two seasons, oftentimes playing through these ailments that wore him down, is an impressive mark for a player entering his mid thirties. 

With Springer set to play right field on a more regular basis, Jays fans can wish upon a full and healthy season of Springer production. Having the former World Series MVP leadoff day after day can make a serious impact on this lineup. A leader, an immense talent, and a clutch hitter, Springer’s health is a major factor of the Jays finishing first in this division.

3. A bounceback rotation

A big strength of last year's club was expected to be the rotation. While the Blue Jays received fantastic seasons from Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman, the seasons for the likes of José Berríos, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Yusei Kikuchi didn’t go as expected. Injuries and poor performance took their toll on this trio, requiring Ross Stripling to step in and save the Blue Jays early in the season.

With Stripling out, Bassitt in, Ryu shelved till mid-season, and Berríos and Kikuchi both looking sharp and confident, it’s fair to yet again expect that this rotation to carry the team. Bounceback seasons from pitchers with a proven track record of success could go a long way for a rotation that lacked consistency for most of the season last year.

A look into Fangraphs projections for Berríos shows a dip in ERA of almost a full run. This forecasted mark of 4.27 is no doubt an improvement over last season, but Jays fans have reason to dream bigger. An ERA of 3.74 from 2017-2021 while averaging 159 innings goes to show what could be expected from Berríos in a rebound year, as he was a pitcher who was previously a model of consistency. When on, he can be expected to fill the zone with a multitude of pitches, and on occasion rack up double-digit strikeouts. Getting Berríos back on track would be a massive boost.

This same sentiment can be shared with Kikuchi. The free agent signee was a frustrating watch last year. A guy with great stuff, Kikuchi lacked confidence last year and was ultimately placed in the bullpen late in the year. With the implementation of a new pitch, increased fastball usage, and a quicker pace thanks to the pitch clock, the potential for a new look Kikuchi is there. Improved pitch selection and consistency from Kikuchi would be a massive boost for this rotation out of it’s fifth starter.

Someone not often discussed in Blue Jays circles nowadays is Hyun Jin Ryu. With a healthy elbow, Ryu has been a joy to watch in a Jays uniform. The former All-Star arrived to Dunedin in great shape, and is on track to rejoin the team midseason. Injecting a healthy and rejuvenated Ryu in this rotation in the middle of a playoff push would be huge, and is a point that shouldn’t be lost on Jays fans as the summer goes on.

4. Vladdy returning to MVP form

Lastly, the return of an MVP-caliber Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be the cherry on top. The Blue Jays would no doubt still expect a postseason berth should Guerrero put up numbers similar to last year. But, should Vladdy return to that 1.000 or more OPS territory, you’re looking at possibly the most dangerous lineup in baseball.

The skill and raw talent never left Guerrero's bat. He still hit the ball as hard as anyone, and he even won a Gold Glove in just his second full season of playing first base. It’s the launch angle and plate discipline that needs to return in order for Vlad to reach that high offensive ceiling again.

As noted in a previous piece, his discipline took a serious drop last year. Guerrero said he put too much pressure on himself last year. A calmer and more patient approach could bode well for a rebound season at the plate.

The topic of launch angle was also an alarming theme of Vlad’s 2022. After making significant strides year to year, he took a 5.1 drop from 2021 to last year. An attempt to return to that 9.4 mark in 2021, paired with a consistent hard hit rate, would bode well for an MVP conversation for the young first baseman.

A rebound season would propel Guerrero firmly back into the superstar category. He’s without doubt one of the faces of the Toronto Blue Jays, but an MVP award amidst a mid 90 win season for the Blue Jays would put him among the all time greats of the franchise. Vlad’s return to dominance, paired with the aforementioned topics, would propel to Blue Jays to a division title, and hopefully a deep run in the post-season.