Blue Jays: The impact on signing a free agent attached to a qualifying offer

Last offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays presented a qualifying offer to second baseman Marcus Semien and left-hander Robbie Ray, with both players rejecting the one-year deals and signing elsewhere. Steven Matz also left the Jays and signed with the Cardinals although he was not attached to a QO, so the club wasn't compensated after his departure.

In return, the Jays received the 77th and 78th pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, which they used on INF Tucker Toman and second baseman, Cade Doughty. There was a chance Toman could have been selected in the first round but the Jays were able to bring him on board later in the draft, going $1 million over slot value and now ranking as the club's #4 prospect. He finished the year going 11 for 38 in Florida Complex League with three doubles compared to seven walks and 12 strikeouts.

Doughty ranks at #11 and had a solid showing in A-ball with the Dunedin Blue Jays to finish the year, posting a .865 OPS with six home runs and 24 RBI while splitting time at second base and third base for the Jays.

This winter, Ross Stripling was the prominent name heading to free agency from the Blue Jays squad and the club did not present him with a qualifying offer, meaning the Jays will not receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere. With Stripling potentially out of the rotation and Hyun Jin Ryu still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Jays have some holes in their rotation and could look to free agency to satisfy the area(s) in need, as the club could also benefit from a left-handed hitting outfielder after the recent Hernández trade.

The impact on the Blue Jays should they sign a free agent like Brandon Nimmo or Chris Bassitt who rejected the qualifying offer from their respective former teams.

Looking at the open market, a few names that are tied to the Blue Jays on the hot stove. LHP Andrew Heaney and RHP Kodai Senga are two names that have been linked to the Jays and did not receive a qualifying offer (Senga is a free agent and not posted through his NPB team), a bonus should the Jays sign either of them or a majority of the free agents on the board.

Should the front office sign any players presented with the QO like LHP Carlos Rodón, OF Brandon Nimmo, or RHP Chris Bassitt (amongst others), there will be some drawbacks.

The Blue Jays penalty associated with signing a player presented with the offer will result in the club losing its second-highest draft pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and $500,000 from their international bonus pool. If the Jays were to sign two players attached to a QO, they will also lose their third-highest pick and an additional $500,000 from their international bonus pool.

So far this offseason, the biggest rumours have the Blue Jays attached to centre fielder Brandon Nimmo, who as I mentioned before is tied to draft pick compensation should he take his talents North of the border. The Jays currently have the 20th pick in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft and won't fall in the Competitive Balance Round A pick area, meaning they would lose their second-round selection.

The Impact on the Blue Jays International Free Agency Bonus Pool

As of right now, the international signing period is set to begin on January 15th, 2023 but many of the top players' sign at or very near the beginning of the period. The MLB and the MLBPA could not agree to terms on an international draft system this past summer, meaning the free-agent period will continue as normal. Each club receives $5.284 million in bonus pool money and earns or losses money based on a variety of factors, including revenue sharing, market size, and whether they sign a player attached to a QO.

Working on the assumption the Jays do not receive additional funds and head in with the $5.284 million, signing a player like Nimmo drops the funds to $4.784 million and to $4.284 million should they sign another player attached to the QO.

Looking at the international prospect leaderboards, the Blue Jays are currently tied to seventh-ranked prospect, outfielder Emmanuel Bonilla, and it is expected that he will command a signing bonus around the $4 million mark. This would be the highest mark in Jays franchise history, besting the $3.9 million the club used on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2015 and the $3.5 million on Orelvis Martinez back in 2018.

Even if the front office signs a player and the bonus pool drops by $500k, the Jays still have money to play with in the international free-agent market, being able to sign Bonilla and some other players with wiggle room to spare. Signing two players attached to the QO will limit additional international transactions following a potential Bonilla signing but again, I believe many fans would trade signing fewer international players if it meant an improved chance at going for the World Series with additional Major League roster pieces. As of right now, Bonilla is the only player in MLB.com's top 50 international prospect rankings that the Blue Jays are interested in.

Summing it All Up

Overall, I truly think the Jays are close to contending for a deep postseason run and although the 2022 postseason didn't pan out as expected, there are players available on the open market and trade front that could take this club to the next level. The drawbacks will have impacts on the future of the squad but no prospect is guaranteed to turn out as expected and as I mentioned earlier, I believe many fans would trade a second-round pick or some international bonus pool money for a shot at the World Series in 2023.