Blue Jays: Ranking the top 10 relief pitchers in the AL East in 2023

In 2022, the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Baltimore Orioles were all in the top ten for bullpen ERA, with the Blue Jays just on the outside, and the Red Sox down near the bottom of MLB. All these teams have geared up for 2023 though, and the AL East is now loaded with reliever talent. Even after the departure of players like Lucas Luetge, Jorge López, and Brooks Raley, there's still tons of talent in these bullpens. Since there are too many names to fully cover in a top 10, here are a few honorable mentions before we dive in.

In Toronto, guys like Adam Cimber and Yimi García had great seasons in 2022 and proved to be some of baseball's most reliable setup pitchers. For the Yankees, veteran Wandy Peralta and rookie Ron Marinaccio both had sub-three ERAs and were integral pieces of one of baseball's best bullpens. The Rays are always loaded with relief talent, with Jalen Beeks and Andrew Kittredge being prime examples of that last season. Orioles relievers Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez had breakout seasons and look like building blocks for a promising young team in Baltimore. Finally, in Boston, Tanner Houck made a successful transition to the bullpen, and the addition of former Dodger Chris Martin should help lead to improvement on the backend in 2023.

For this list, there will be a few factors that are taken into account. First and most obvious, is past performance, but projecting for the future, using things like advanced metrics and the eye test will also be important. Track record is still important, but this is a list for 2023, so projection matters just as much. This list is also looking at players who are purely relievers, and not long relief guys who sometimes start games, something the Rays are known for doing. With all that out of the way, here are the top 10 relief pitchers in the AL East for 2023.

10: John Schreiber, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox bullpen in 2022 was, for the most part, pretty terrible, with a combined ERA of 4.59 ranking 26th in the Majors. The closer position in particular was very bad, with 11 different arms getting save opportunities, and 28 total blown saves over the course of the season. Amidst this chaos, John Schreiber came out of absolutely nowhere and put together a fantastic year. In 65 innings pitched, the 28-year-old righty posted a 2.22 ERA with a WHIP below 1.000 and over 10 strikeouts per nine.

Prior to 2022, Schreiber had pitched just 31.2 innings in the Majors and had a career 5.97 ERA, with most of his time coming in Detroit. In both 2021 and 2022 though, he had dominated in Triple-A for the Red Sox to the tune of a 2.52 ERA over 78.2 innings, and since they were pretty much out of options, he was given a shot in the bigs. His pitch mix consists of a slider, fourseamer and sinker, all of which are pretty good and produced an xwOBA around .240, along with an occasional changeup, which is by far his weakest pitch. He's got average velocity and movement on all his pitches, but his sidearm angle can be tough for batters to deal with and keeps the ball out of the air.

The Red Sox signed a big-name reliever who'll be featured a bit higher on this list to lock down the closer position this offseason, so Schreiber will most likely be in a setup role this season which could be good for him since he blew three of his 11 save attempts last season. He had 22 holds in 2022, and if he sticks in that role for the full year, he could really solidify himself as one of the better bullpen arms in the division.

9: Anthony Bass, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays traded for Anthony Bass at last year's trade deadline for his second stint with the club and he was outstanding. In 2022 with Toronto and Miami, Bass posted a 1.54 ERA over 70.1 innings pitched, with a WHIP of 1.009 and almost 10 strikeouts per nine in his 25.2 innings with the Jays. At 35-years-old, you'd often expect a decline to come soon, but it feels like Bass might be in his prime right now. His skillset should age well, as he doesn't rely on velocity, with his primary pitch being his slider, which he used over 50% of the time. A sinker, fourseamer and very occasionally a splitter round out his arsenal. While he doesn't rely on velocity, his fastball is actually in the 77th percentile in that regard, so it's there should he need it.

2022 was a bit of a revelation for Bass, as his only full season with a sub-three ERA since his rookie year in 2011, and was the most innings he'd pitched as a reliever in his career. Random 30-something-year-olds will often have great seasons out of nowhere and then just fall off the map, but there's reason to believe that this wasn't a fluke from Bass. For starters, his statcast numbers, which can be excellent for projecting future success, are all really solid. He's sitting comfortably in the 70s and 80s for percentiles in most categories, which isn't out of this world but is an encouraging sign. The eye tests is pretty good too, with good mechanics leading to consistent location and movement on his pitches in 2022.

Playing in both the NL and AL East last season, divisions loaded with offensive talent, Bass more than held his own, putting up a 263 ERA+, and proved to be a great setup man for the Blue Jays down the stretch. 2022 being a relative outlier for him and his age keep him from going any higher on this list, but if he's even 70% of the pitcher he was last year in 2023, Toronto's got a good one.

8: Michael King, New York Yankees

Michael King has burst on two the scene over the past two seasons, with a 2.99 ERA in 114.1 innings pitched, and a 2.29 in 51 innings in just 2022. 2023 will be the righty's fourth season in the majors, and with some big pieces leaving the Yankees pen, he'll likely be asked to do a lot this year.

King has absolutely filthy stuff, like the type of pitches of hitters' nightmares. His sinker, which he uses 37% of the time, averages 95.5 MPH and has great horizontal and vertical break. It's deadly down and in against righties, and can also be used to steal backwards Ks. His slider, which he uses 30% of the time is one of the best in the game. In 2022, batters had a .130 batting average against it, thanks to its almost unbelievable amount of movement. It gets nine inches and 95% more horizontal break than the average slider and can have even the best hitters looking like they belong in A-ball. His fourseamer, which he uses 22% of the time, is really solid, averaging 96.4 MPH, and is great when he's able to locate it up in the zone. He's a little bit sporadic with it so it's prone to get hit hard, but if he can get ahold of it, it could be deadly. He's also got a changeup which he uses about 10% of the time, which is essentially just a slower version of his sinker and since he uses it so little, it's incredibly effective and often catches batters off guard.

He might not have the track record of some of the others on this list, but Yankees fans have high hopes for him, and it's hard not to agree. With a bigger role in the Yankees bullpen this season, King will have a chance to showcase his stuff and could prove to be the next big arm in the Bronx.

7: Erik Swanson, Toronto Blue Jays

As Blue Jays fans are well aware, the team gave up a lot to acquire Erik Swanson this offseason. He and a low-level minor league pitcher were the return from the Seattle Mariners for two-time Sliver Slugger and longest-tenured Blue Jay, Teoscar Hernández. The idea of trading a star outfielder for a reliever certainly wasn't ideal at first, but as the dust has begun to settle on the deal, more and more people are starting to see Swanson for who he is; a really solid reliever.

2022 was a breakout season for Swanson, who had a 1.68 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched, and his 7.0 strikeouts per walk was second among AL relievers with at least 50 innings pitched, behind only Emmanuel Clase. He's got a solid fastball as his primary, usually sitting in the mid-90s, but his best pitch by far is his splitter. While it might not be on the level of Kevin Gausman's, it's still an outstanding pitch. Against lefties in particular, this pitch is almost unhittable, with all batters only having a .129 average against it last season. Statcast absolutely loves him, as he sits in the top six percent of the league or higher for average exit velocity, xSLUG, wOBA, xwOBA, hard hit rate, strikeout rate, and xERA. The main argument you could levy against him is that he's only had one truly great season, but his peripherals are more than good enough to prove it wasn't just a fluke.

Toronto's closer role is already filled by someone near the top of this list, so Swanson will likely just be in a setup role, but he's got a shot to be one of the best in the league. The Blue Jays obviously have faith in him, considering what they gave up to acquire him, and he's entering his age 29 season which is where many relievers hit their peak. Seven feels like a fair ranking for him now, but don't be surprised if he exceeds expectations in 2023.

6: Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox needed to invest in their bullpen after a rough 2022, particularly the closer role. So how did they go about doing that? They signed one of the greatest closers in MLB history. After a one-year stint in Atlanta, Dodgers great Kenley Jansen signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox. While some of the guys on the list so far have only had brief Major League success, Jansen is the exact opposite. In his 13-year career, he has 391 saves (eighth all time), a 2.46 ERA in 769 innings pitched (third among relievers with at least 750 innings), two NL reliever of the year awards, a fifth-place Cy Young finish, and countless other accolades. The point is that Jansen is one of the best to ever do it, and is a huge pickup for the Red Sox. Having heard all that though, you might be wondering why he isn't ranked higher, here's why.

While his 2022 would have been a great season for most relievers, it was one of the worst of Jansen's career, as he posted a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings with the Braves, despite leading the league in saves with 41. In fact, he's been on a bit of a decline over the past five seasons. Through his first eight seasons, Jansen had a 2.08 ERA in 477 innings, but since then, he has a 3.08 over 292. This has coincided with less usage of his cutter, which used to be so dominant, that at his peak made him essentially a one-pitch pitcher. Recently, he's begun using this pitch about 60% of the time and has mixed in his fastball and slider more often. Despite all this, his advanced metrics were actually really good in 2022, sitting near the top of the league for xERA, xBA, xSLUG, and strikeout rate, with solid numbers in the other areas.

The main reason for concern with Jansen is that while lots of other guys on this list seem to be entering their prime, he seems to be exiting his. While a lot of the underlying numbers suggest that he probably pitched better than a 3.38 ERA last year, this is a division loaded with reliever talent, and he'll have some tough competition. Who knows, maybe this ranking will look silly a few months from now, but the guys ahead of him are just too good to have him any higher.

5: Clay Holmes, New York Yankees

There was a point in the 2022 season where it looked like Clay Holmes might have been the best reliever in baseball. Through his first 39.1 innings of the season, he only allowed two earned runs, which was good for a 0.46 ERA. His stuff looked electric and batters simply couldn't touch him. Then the wheels fell off. In his final 24.1 innings , Holmes had a staggering 5.92 ERA, raising his season total to 2.54. Despite this nightmare finish, he bounced back in the postseason, allowing only five base runners and no runs in six innings to cap off his 2022 campaign.

Because of the huge disparity between Holmes' first and second half last year, there's a pretty broad range of opinions. While it's definitely fair to have some level of concern considering how disastrous his second half was, he's shown enough that he deserves this top-five ranking. For starters, he's got an elite sinker, which he used over 80% of the time last season. It averages 97 MPH but touches triple digits, has a ton of bite, and might be one of the best pitches in all of baseball. The rest of the time he uses his slider, which oftentimes acts more like a sweeping curve. It too is an outstanding pitch and plays perfectly off of his sinker. He's got some really good statcast numbers too, with his xERA and xBA sitting in the mid-90 percentiles and his xSLUG and barrel rate sitting in the 99th and 100th percentiles respectively.

Holmes is far from a lock to go back to his early 2022 form in 2023, but if he's even half of that, he'd be one of the best relievers in the game. With long-time closer Aroldis Chapman gone, the job appears to be all Holmes' and in what's shaping up to be a very tight division, he'll have a chance to show how good he really is in 2023.

3: Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays

Jordan Romano is without a doubt, one of the premier closers in MLB, and his ranking at three on this list is in no way meant to diminish that, it's just that the AL East has some really good closers. If you want a full analysis of him, this season preview should be able to explain where some of the concerns with Romano's game stem from but to summarize, Romano has some pretty concerning batted ball data that could lead to regression in 2023. However, Romano is still ranked above some very good pitchers on this list, and here's why.

Over the past two seasons, Romano has a 2.13 ERA over 127 innings, which is fifth among all pitchers in MLB with at least 100 innings pitched. The pitchers he's behind? Emmanuel Clase, Justin Verlander, Jacob DeGrom, and Colin McHugh (better than you think, he's just boring). He's been an incredible closer for the Jays, with 59 saves in that period, and being a GTA native just makes it even more fun. Speaking of which, he's particularly great at home, having allowed just four earned runs in 32.2 innings pitched at the Rogers Centre last season. Both his fourdseamer and slider, which he uses about half of the time each, are very solid pitches, and his velocity only gets better as the season goes on. Additionally, his massive 6-foot-5 frame allows him to get an elite extension on his pitches, which is an underrated advantage that can be tough for hitters to adjust to. He's yet to really work himself into too many "best closer in baseball" conversations, but if he continues on the pace he's on, that's bound to change.

2: Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays

This ranking may seem a bit high, but reserve your judgment for just a few minutes. Pete Fairbanks is incredibly hard to rank, since he only pitched 24 innings last season, but had a 1.13 ERA. Over the last three seasons, he has a 2.70 ERA in only 93.1 innings pitched, but the stuff that he's shown has been so tantalizing that it's impossible to keep him off this list. Last season, he had 14.3 strikeouts per nine and only 1.1 walks per nine. This is obviously a completely unsustainable ratio, but he has a 12.7 career strikeouts per nine in 114.1 innings, so that aspect of his game at least seems to be sustainable. He absolutely dominated in his short 2022, campaign, but what can we use to project him for 2023?

The easiest place to start is his fastball. His fastball averages 99 MPH, which is in the 99th percentile, and routinely touches triple digits. Last year he was able to locate it very well which played a big role in his low walk numbers, but in the past, it's been slightly less consistent. His other pitch is a slider, and it's once again a very good one. Unlike most sliders, this pitch actually has a decent amount of vertical drop with little to no horizontal movement. It's great at getting swings and misses, and along with his fastball, helps produce lots of ground balls when it's put in play. His expected stats per statcast last season were also insane, with his xERA, xBA, and other numbers being good enough to lead the league had they been over a full season.

There's no question that Fairbanks has the potential to not just be one of the best relievers in the AL East, but in MLB as a whole, it's just a question of whether he can do it over a full season. Injury has been something that's plagued Fairbanks throughout his career, with his healthiest season being the COVID shortened 2020. However, the Rays did sign him to an extension this offseason, which could be a sign that they believe he can stay healthy. It'll probably be controversial no matter where he's ranked, and maybe two is a bit high, but he has more raw talent than anyone on their list and has a chance to really make a name for himself in 2023.

1: Félix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles

If you're not yet familiar with Félix Bautista, you might want to familiarize yourself with him soon. There are tons of good, even great relievers in the AL East, but if you're looking at the 2023 season, Bautista might have the best case for being the top guy. At last year's trade deadline, the Orioles were starting to make a playoff push, but traded their star reliever Jorge Lopez to the Twins, because they had a 6-foot-eight righty in the pen who threw triple digits in line to take his place. In 2022, Bautista's first year in the Majors, he pitches 65.2 innings with a 2.19 ERA, while converting on 15 of his 17 save attempts. But 2022 was more of a proof of concept than anything, and there's plenty of reason to be scared of (or excited for depending on who you cheer for) him this upcoming season.

While Bautista's ERA may not look like it's on the same level as some of the other guys on this list, a bad outing in his second last game of the season against the World Series champion Houston Astros, where he allowed four earned runs in 1.1 innings, inflated his ERA from 1.71 to 2.23, and was a bit of a rough finish to an otherwise outstanding rookie campaign. He finished the year with a 0.929 WHIP, over 12 strikeouts per nine, and a walk rate slightly above league average, which is huge for a young flamethrower. His statcast metrics were similarly great, with an xERA, xBA, xSLUG, strikeout rate, whiff rate, and fastball velocity all in the 90s for percentile rankings. The aforementioned fastball is elite and averages 99 MPH, but has gotten as high as 103. He also featured an incredible splitter, which batters hit just .087 off of last year, and a decent slider to round out his repertoire.

The important thing to remember about Bautista is that, in theory, he's just scratching the surface. While he'll be turning 28 this June, he had a bit of a rough journey through the minors after being signed by the Marlins as an international free in 2012 and didn't even reach AAA until 2021. Injury will give him a late start to Orioles spring training, but once he gets into the swing of things, he's got a chance to be one of the best relievers in baseball, which is why he earned the top spot on this list.