Blue Jays' playoff odds look promising at the All-Star break

Toronto Blue Jays v Chicago White Sox - Game One
Toronto Blue Jays v Chicago White Sox - Game One / Jamie Sabau/GettyImages

Now more than halfway through the season, the Toronto Blue Jays have a few days off before the unofficial second half begins. With the dog days of summer heating up, the stretch drive to the playoffs is right around the corner.

At 50-41, the Blue Jays sit third in the AL East, seven games back of the Tampa Bay Rays, and hold the second Wild Card spot, but what does the math say about their playoff chances? The All-Star break seems like a good time to check in on FanGraphs' playoff odds.

If you missed it, we covered the preseason playoff odds back in Spring Training. These constantly changing odds include the probability of teams winning their division, clinching a bye, clinching a Wild Card, making the playoffs and winning the World Series.

If you're curious how FanGraphs creates their playoff odds, you can read our quick overview, or for a more thorough explanation, check out David Appelman's write-up.

Note: Probability and odds are not the same. The numbers discussed here are the probability, or chance, of the outcomes occurring. The term "odds" is used loosely, as these aren't the actual odds of the outcomes.

How have the Blue Jays' playoff chances changed?

Preseason projections calculated the Blue Jays to finish with an 87.6-74.4 record. That has improved to 88.4-73.6 after their strong finish to the first half.

Prior to Opening Day, FanGraphs gave the Jays a 72 percent chance at making the playoffs. One month into the season, their odds jumped to 82.9 percent.

Now for some bad news. The probability of the Jays playing October baseball has dropped to 70.6 percent over the last couple of months, which means that out of 20,000 simulations, they made the postseason 14,120 times.

Do the Blue Jays have any chance of winning the division?

After their incredible start to the season, the Rays hit a speed bump just before the break but still hold the top spot in the AL East. At 58-35, they lead the Baltimore Orioles by just two games but still have the best odds at the division crown, with a 71.7 percent chance.

The Jays came into the season with the second-best odds of taking home the AL East title at 29.4 percent (originally, the Yankees were projected to dominate the division). Toronto is now third in the projections behind the Orioles, with their odds plummeting to 9.1 percent.

Here's a look at the current AL East division and playoff odds:


Win Div%








Blue Jays






Red Sox



Blue Jays still have a shot at a Wild Card, but what about the World Series?

Before the season, the chances of the Jays grabbing a Wild Card sat at 42.6 percent, mainly because they were given more consideration for the top spot in the division. Now that winning the AL East title seems a more challenging task (although not impossible — has Tampa Bay's collapse begun?), the odds of Toronto settling into a Wild Card berth are up to 61.4 percent.

Looking at the Wild Card-specific odds for the American League, the Blue Jays sit second, just behind Baltimore. With the strength of the AL East and how tight the Wild Card race has been up to this point, it's no surprise that the Yankees and Red Sox round out the top four in the Wild Card projections.

As for World Series odds, the Jays came into the season with the sixth-best odds of winning it all, with a 6.9 percent chance. After 91 games, the Jays still are fourth with a slightly lower 5.6 percent probability of winning the Fall Classic.

For context, the Braves are the overwhelming favorites at 24 percent. The Dodgers are second at 13.2 percent, while the Rays are third at 12.1 percent.

Remember that these probabilities are fluid and change daily, influenced by wins and losses, player performance and roster moves. Despite the ups and downs of the first half, there's plenty of baseball left to play. The Jays still control their destiny.