Blue Jays: Is the team now ready for next season?

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The Blue Jays made another splash in the free agent market by signing starter Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63M contract. Bassitt solidifies the rotation after Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and José Berríos, and most likely leaves Mitch White, Yusei Kikuchi, and rookies Ricky Tiedemann and Yosver Zuleta to battle for the fifth rotation spot, barring the Jays re-signing free agent Ross Stripling.

Chris Bassitt is heading to Toronto on a three-year, $63 million contract, per Jeff Passan. pic.twitter.com/m39v2b3wS5
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 12, 2022

So with the addition of the left-handed hitting - and defensive standout - Kevin Kiermaier to help out in center field and Bassitt to round out the rotation, are the Blue Jays ready for the 2023 season? In a word, “no”. They can still improve this roster with a power hitting left-handed hitting outfielder, potentially one more depth starter in case Berríos, White and Kikuchi all regress further and Hyun Jin Ryu is unable to contribute in the later months of the 2023 season, and another hard throwing, high leverage reliever to add to the back of the bullpen alongside closer Jordan Romano.

High Leverage Reliever

In November, they’d traded one year of Teoscar Hernández to Seattle for a ‘swing and miss’ reliever in Erik Swanson, and a top-10 prospect in the Jays system in pitcher Adam Macko. But Swanson only throws 94mph and is reliant on his off-speed stuff to generate strikeouts, so the need for 100mph gas at the backend of the bullpen remains.

#BlueJays GM Ross Atkins on Erik Swanson, acquired today from the Mariners:

"He can pitch in any inning for us. The strikeouts are big. That’s been talked about a lot, obviously, for some good reason. That’s an opportunity for us to improve."
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) November 16, 2022

Certainly Zulueta and Nate Pearson are internal relief options who can both reach 100mph when healthy, which hasn’t been a consistent probability. Like Mitch White, the always injured Julian Merryweather is out of minor league options, and both of those pitchers will have to make the team out of Spring Training or pass through the waiver wire if the Jays want to try and sneak them down to Buffalo as depth.

LHH Power Bat

Left-handed outfield options to provide depth - given both George Springer (elbow) and Kiermaier (torn labrum in his hip) are coming off surgeries - include free agents Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley, but they’re both coming off surgeries as well. Trade candidates include Bryan Reynolds of the Pittsburgh Pirates, as well as Daulton Varsho or Alek Thomas of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Catchers

The Jays still have their trio of MLB catchers in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and rookie Gabriel Moreno. The thinking is that they’re trying to move one of them in a trade for an outfielder or starting pitching. Catchers have been highly valued this offseason, with the St. Louis Cardinals signing Willson Contreras to a 5 year, $87.5M contract, and Atlanta trading for A’s catcher Sean Murphy in a blockbuster deal.

There has also been some chatter that a potential deal between the Jays and Cardinals broke down, with a swap of Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley and Danny Jansen not happening. Note, the 27-year-old Jansen has two years of team control and salary arbitration left before he’d become a free agent, so unless the Blue Jays plan to extend him to a longer-term contract, his trade value should be at maximum value today coming off a team-high OPS of .855 over 72 games in 2022.

Payroll Considerations

The addition of Bassitt at an average annual contract value (AAV) of $21M, plus the Kiermaier signing (contract terms not disclosed yet) are likely to push the Blue Jays competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll close to the $233M threshold for 2023. Roster Resource, which doesn’t include the Kiermaier signing yet, puts the luxury tax payroll at $225M with the Bassitt signing. Team president Mark Shapiro has said that the CBT number wouldn’t dictate payroll, so we’ll see if they are willing to trigger the luxury tax to further improve this team ahead of the 2023 season. Note, Bassitt had rejected a qualifying offer (QO) from the New York Mets, so the Jays will also have to forfeit their 2nd-highest pick in the 2023 amateur draft, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool budget.

The Blue Jays are rounding in to a more competitive team than they were at the end of the ALWC series against the Seattle Mariners in October, but General Manager Ross Atkins still has work to do to have this roster ready for 2023 Opening Day. Three of the left-handed bench bats are gone, including outfielders Ramiel Tapia, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Bradley Zimmer. Teoscar Hernandez’s bat (25 home runs, OPS+127 and bWAR 2.8) is a big hole to fill, but Kevin Kiermaier is a start. More must done.

The rotation looks solid, but MLB-level starting pitching depth remains a concern after the top four. Remember the Jays were blessed with extraordinarily good health outside of Hyun Jin Ryu in their 2022 rotation: Manoah, Gausman, Berríos and Stripling started 118 of the Jays 162 regular season games, while Kikuchi, White and Ryu combined for another 34 starts. Ross Stripling also made a huge contribution replacing Ryu, posting a bWAR of 2.7 over 24 starts and 134.1 innings. Bassitt (3.2 bWAR in 2022) is a much more consistent upgrade over Strip, but that still leaves someone like Mitch White or Yusei Kikuchi taking a regular turn in a five-man rotation.

Atkins understands very clearly that the Blue Jays need to have one of the best bullpens in baseball to go deep in the postseason. Whether that’s the case today remains debatable, but if the front office follows the same pattern of the past few seasons in the team’s competitive window, they may see how the bullpen develops through July 1st, and then add relievers at the trade deadline with an eye towards postseason baseball.

The team is now only a few players away from being ready for the start of the 2023 season, so Jays fans can rest easier knowing that there are still 62 days or so until pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin in February! What do you think Jays fans, are you satisfied with the roster as currently constructed after the Hernández trade, and Kiermaier and Bassitt free agent signings?

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