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Blue Jays: How will new Rogers Centre dimensions change baseball in Toronto?

By Michael Fisher |
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Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays / Vaughn Ridley/GettyImages
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After months of anticipation, the Toronto Blue Jays have finally released the new Rogers Centre outfield dimensions and wall heights for the 2023 season.

Ben-Nicholson Smith of Sportsnet tweeted the official dimensions along with a team-supplied graphic of the new-look outfield.

Here are the new measurements (keep in mind that the wall was previously a uniform 10 feet):

Left field:

  • Left field line: 328 feet (no change), 14-foot-4-inch wall
  • Left-center: 368 feet (was 375 feet), 11-foot-2-inch wall
  • Left-center power alley: 381 feet (was 383 feet), 12-foot-9-inch wall

Center field:

  • Center field: 400 feet (no change), 8-foot wall

Right field:

  • Right field line: 328 feet (no change), 12-foot-7-inch wall
  • Right-center: 359 feet (was 375 feet), 14-foot-4-inch wall
  • Right-center power alley: 372 feet (was 383 feet), 10-foot-9-inch wall

The quirky changes, from the shape of the protruding bullpens to the varying wall heights, are a far cry from the uninspired, symmetrical outfield that fans and players have been used to since the ballpark's opening in 1989.

At first glance, the smaller outfield suggests a more prosperous ballpark for home runs. However, as Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic reports (subscription required), the Jays' research and development and analytics departments figured out how to bring in the walls but adjust the heights to "limit the impact on play" and keep it close to the same overall neutral environment.

Last season, Rogers Centre ranked 16th in the league by Statcast Park Factors, rated at an even league-average 100 (although above average for home runs). Apparently, the front office wanted to keep it that way while still giving the outfield a facelift.

How will the outfield defense adapt?

What we may see is more chaos in the outfield. The new wall angles will play differently, creating unusual caroms and leading to more doubles and triples (the park is rated well below average for the latter).

We know the Jays made a point of upgrading their outfield defense this offseason with the additions of Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Despite the defensive prowess of the revamped outfield, there will be some adventures as George Springer and company learn how to navigate the new angles.

As the outfield defenders acclimate to their new surroundings, the Rogers Centre outfield should become an advantage for the home team. Not to mention the 8-foot wall in straightaway center where fans will be treated to some highlight reel-worthy home run robberies.

Will hitters gain any advantage?

When the new outfield dimensions were leaked before the official announcement, there was plenty of excitement about a better offensive environment for hitters. But with the the reality of higher walls, we can temper our expectations.

Fortunately, with batted ball data like distance and launch angle we can get an idea of which Jays may benefit this season. Generally, the sweet spot for home runs is a 25-35 degree launch angle. We'll expand that range up to 45 degrees to capture fly balls from 2022 that would have had a chance to clear the new wall heights.

Let's start with newcomer Daulton Varsho. Per FanGraphs, he hit 168 fly balls, pulling 70, or 41.7%, of them to right field. Baseball Savant shows that the lefty had 32 hard-hit fly balls with a launch angle between 35 and 45 degrees.

His Statcast spray chart on Baseball Savant shows six or seven fly balls from last season that had the distance and launch angle to possibly end up as home runs instead of outs in his new home park.

The other new lefty addition, Brandon Belt, will enjoy Toronto after 12 years of hitting in Oracle Park, a notoriously challenging place to hit home runs. He doesn't pull the ball as frequently as Varsho, which the stadium may have influenced, but he has hit 50% fly balls over the past two seasons.

Belt's spray chart from the past two seasons demonstrates some avoidance of the spacious right-center power alley (415 feet!). It also shows several pulled fly balls swallowed up as outs, like this 407-foot moonshot that would easily clear the wall at Rogers Centre, even before the renovations.

Other notable hitters to watch

Bo Bichette, who has a well-known propensity for taking the ball to the opposite field, had two or three fly balls last season with enough distance and a high enough launch angle to clear the new right-field fence.

Matt Chapman hits his fair share of fly balls. He hit 48.5% last year and pulled a third of them. With an average launch angle of 19 degrees, he gets good loft and might have added two or three round-trippers.

Danny Jansen, a known pull hitter at 52.3% with a 50.6% fly ball rate, would have probably taken a couple more trips around the bases if the new dimensions were in play last season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an interesting case. Last season he hit over 50% ground balls and had an average launch angle of 4.3 degrees. With only 46 batted balls between 25-45 degrees, he still would have benefited with a couple more home runs if they had been hit in the new Rogers Centre.

The 2021 version of Vladdy, who hit 64 balls between 25-45 degrees and had a slightly higher launch angle, would have a better chance of capitalizing on the new field. But he'd still be limited by the higher walls because he also hits so many line drives.

While there's potential for additional home runs, the new wall heights will also take away home runs. But this doesn't necessarily mean less offense, just a different kind of offense than we are used to seeing in Toronto.

Home runs from previous years, those low-launch angle balls that barely cleared the fence, and shots down the line with just enough distance to get out will now stay in the park and potentially turn into doubles and triples, leading to extended rallies and more excitement on the basepaths.

Let's take a look at what this could mean for Blue Jays pitchers.

Which pitchers should we be worried about?

If the team intends to maintain a neutral offensive environment, there shouldn't be a significant effect on pitchers. But we should still look to see which starters might be more susceptible to problems with a cozier outfield and a possible change in the type of offense we see at the Rogers Centre.

Let's start with José Berríos. According to FanGraphs, he gave up 39 hits (28 homers and 11 doubles) on hard-hit fly balls, by far the most by a Jays' starter. A third of those were pulled to right by left-handed batters, who managed 10 home runs.

Berríos' 39.7% fly ball rate isn't glaringly bad, but his 13.5% HR/FB rate could spell trouble. Statcast measured a 43.4% hard-hit rate for the righty, a mark topped only by Yusei Kikuchi's 46.9%.

The only starter with a higher fly ball rate in 2022 than Berríos was Alek Manoah, at 41.9%. The difference is Manoah is exceptionally good at inducing weak contact. He only gave up 15 home runs on hard-hit fly balls and kept a tidy 7.1% HR/FB rate.

According to Statcast, the big righty had the lowest hard-hit rate among Jays starters, at 31.5%. On top of that, his 5.4% barrel rate ranked fifth among qualified pitchers in the majors.

While Kevin Gausman gave up 63 hard-hit fly balls, accounting for 15 home runs, his xFIP of 2.75 should alleviate any worries about him being harmed by the smaller outfield. With an impressive strikeout rate of 10.56 K/9 — the best way to stop balls leaving the yard — an 8.5% HR/FB rate, and a league-average 38% hard-hit rate, he should fair okay in 2023.

Newcomer Chris Bassitt should also fair favorably in his new home, bringing a 48.8% ground ball rate with him to Toronto. His Statcast marks of a 32.8% hard-hit rate and a low 6.6% barrel rate should bode well in 2023.

All that being said, we won't really know how the new dimensions affect play until we see it with our own eyes and gather enough data points to understand for certain what the offensive environment of the new Rogers Centre will look like.

Next. Alek Manoah giving back to his hometown during offseason. dark

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