Blue Jays: How will new Rogers Centre dimensions change baseball in Toronto?

Will hitters gain any advantage?

When the new outfield dimensions were leaked before the official announcement, there was plenty of excitement about a better offensive environment for hitters. But with the the reality of higher walls, we can temper our expectations.

Fortunately, with batted ball data like distance and launch angle we can get an idea of which Jays may benefit this season. Generally, the sweet spot for home runs is a 25-35 degree launch angle. We'll expand that range up to 45 degrees to capture fly balls from 2022 that would have had a chance to clear the new wall heights.

Let's start with newcomer Daulton Varsho. Per FanGraphs, he hit 168 fly balls, pulling 70, or 41.7%, of them to right field. Baseball Savant shows that the lefty had 32 hard-hit fly balls with a launch angle between 35 and 45 degrees.

His Statcast spray chart on Baseball Savant shows six or seven fly balls from last season that had the distance and launch angle to possibly end up as home runs instead of outs in his new home park.

The other new lefty addition, Brandon Belt, will enjoy Toronto after 12 years of hitting in Oracle Park, a notoriously challenging place to hit home runs. He doesn't pull the ball as frequently as Varsho, which the stadium may have influenced, but he has hit 50% fly balls over the past two seasons.

Belt's spray chart from the past two seasons demonstrates some avoidance of the spacious right-center power alley (415 feet!). It also shows several pulled fly balls swallowed up as outs, like this 407-foot moonshot that would easily clear the wall at Rogers Centre, even before the renovations.

Other notable hitters to watch

Bo Bichette, who has a well-known propensity for taking the ball to the opposite field, had two or three fly balls last season with enough distance and a high enough launch angle to clear the new right-field fence.

Matt Chapman hits his fair share of fly balls. He hit 48.5% last year and pulled a third of them. With an average launch angle of 19 degrees, he gets good loft and might have added two or three round-trippers.

Danny Jansen, a known pull hitter at 52.3% with a 50.6% fly ball rate, would have probably taken a couple more trips around the bases if the new dimensions were in play last season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an interesting case. Last season he hit over 50% ground balls and had an average launch angle of 4.3 degrees. With only 46 batted balls between 25-45 degrees, he still would have benefited with a couple more home runs if they had been hit in the new Rogers Centre.

The 2021 version of Vladdy, who hit 64 balls between 25-45 degrees and had a slightly higher launch angle, would have a better chance of capitalizing on the new field. But he'd still be limited by the higher walls because he also hits so many line drives.

While there's potential for additional home runs, the new wall heights will also take away home runs. But this doesn't necessarily mean less offense, just a different kind of offense than we are used to seeing in Toronto.

Home runs from previous years, those low-launch angle balls that barely cleared the fence, and shots down the line with just enough distance to get out will now stay in the park and potentially turn into doubles and triples, leading to extended rallies and more excitement on the basepaths.

Let's take a look at what this could mean for Blue Jays pitchers.

Which pitchers should we be worried about?

If the team intends to maintain a neutral offensive environment, there shouldn't be a significant effect on pitchers. But we should still look to see which starters might be more susceptible to problems with a cozier outfield and a possible change in the type of offense we see at the Rogers Centre.

Let's start with José Berríos. According to FanGraphs, he gave up 39 hits (28 homers and 11 doubles) on hard-hit fly balls, by far the most by a Jays' starter. A third of those were pulled to right by left-handed batters, who managed 10 home runs.

Berríos' 39.7% fly ball rate isn't glaringly bad, but his 13.5% HR/FB rate could spell trouble. Statcast measured a 43.4% hard-hit rate for the righty, a mark topped only by Yusei Kikuchi's 46.9%.

The only starter with a higher fly ball rate in 2022 than Berríos was Alek Manoah, at 41.9%. The difference is Manoah is exceptionally good at inducing weak contact. He only gave up 15 home runs on hard-hit fly balls and kept a tidy 7.1% HR/FB rate.

According to Statcast, the big righty had the lowest hard-hit rate among Jays starters, at 31.5%. On top of that, his 5.4% barrel rate ranked fifth among qualified pitchers in the majors.

While Kevin Gausman gave up 63 hard-hit fly balls, accounting for 15 home runs, his xFIP of 2.75 should alleviate any worries about him being harmed by the smaller outfield. With an impressive strikeout rate of 10.56 K/9 — the best way to stop balls leaving the yard — an 8.5% HR/FB rate, and a league-average 38% hard-hit rate, he should fair okay in 2023.

Newcomer Chris Bassitt should also fair favorably in his new home, bringing a 48.8% ground ball rate with him to Toronto. His Statcast marks of a 32.8% hard-hit rate and a low 6.6% barrel rate should bode well in 2023.

All that being said, we won't really know how the new dimensions affect play until we see it with our own eyes and gather enough data points to understand for certain what the offensive environment of the new Rogers Centre will look like.