Blue Jays: Can the Jays benefit from the new MLB schedule?

One of the changes MLB is introducing for the 2023 season is a new, more balanced schedule in which every team plays every other team for at least one series.

As outlined in the official release on MLB.com, the league's reasoning is to create "more consistent opponent matchups as Clubs compete for Postseason berths." They also aim to create a more fan-friendly schedule so fans can see more teams and star players each season.

So how does this affect the Jays' chances in 2023? To find out, we'll look at changes in the level of competition they'll face and the travel ramifications of the new schedule.

What does the new schedule look like?

First, a quick primer on the schedule.

In 2023, each team will play 52 divisional games, down from 76. This means the Jays will match up against each AL East rival for 13 games, not the usual 19. Playing six fewer games against each of the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles is a positive for the Jays, but we'll come back to that.

They'll also play 64 games versus American League non-divisional teams (the Central and West divisions), just a little bit less than the usual 66.

The most significant change is the 46 games against every National League team, an increase of 24 games over the 20 they would typically play versus their "natural rival" and a select division.

So, what does this new-look schedule mean for the level of competition the Jays will face this season?

Will the Jays gain a strength of schedule advantage?

Common sense tells us that playing fewer games in the AL East is a considerable improvement to the Jays' schedule, and we are correct in that thinking.

Generally regarded as the toughest division in baseball, the AL East is a gauntlet year in and year out, and this is especially true right now.

Last season, the AL East was the strongest and most balanced division, finishing with the highest winning percentage in the game at .541. It was the only division with four teams over 80 wins and the only one where all five teams eclipsed the 70-win mark.

Baltimore has seemingly shed the label of the "division punching bag" and is on the verge of cracking open their competitive window. And even with Boston scuffling in the basement — who knows what version of the Red Sox will come out of Fenway this season? — they still managed 78 wins last year.

Mike Petriello of MLB.com recently did the math to show that the AL East and West divisions will benefit the most from the new 2023 schedule compared to the old format.

Baltimore will benefit the most, with their opponent's strength of schedule decreasing from .517 to .490, which works out to a +.027 boost. The Jays are right behind them, receiving a +.026 increase in ease of schedule.

One caveat is that the strength of schedule numbers were taken from FanGraphs' projected winning percentages. As such, they won't ever be perfectly accurate because they rely on teams performing to their projections. They can also change based on trades, injuries, roster moves, etc.

But projections are what we have to work with, and as Petriello reiterates, "there's generally a pretty strong relationship between projected outcomes and actual outcomes."

Regardless, the Jays and the entire AL East will benefit from playing fewer games against each other and more games against weaker NL teams and divisions. This means more wins to go around the entire division, so winning the division will still be challenging.

However, Petriello points out that it also increases AL East teams' odds of securing a Wild Card spot:

It was already pretty hard to see the Central sending a team to the Wild Card, given the strength in the East and West, and this only exacerbates that.

Although the Jays are already favored to make the playoffs, Petriello's analysis puts them in an even more favorable position to make the postseason for a second straight year.

Next, we look at how the new schedule will alter the travel for the Jays and the other AL East teams.