Blue Jays: Biggest additions, subtractions and breakout candidates for AL East rivals

From trading franchise cornerstone Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to bringing in potential studs like Daulton Varsho and Chris Bassitt, it's been a very busy offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays. While Ross Atkins and Co. have been busy, the rest of the AL East has been making plenty of moves themselves. While teams like the Baltimore Orioles may not have made any big splashes, and the Tampa Bay Rays operated as they normally do, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox weren't afraid to open their wallets. Before we get into this, there are plenty of moves that won't be covered in depth, so here's a quick rundown of some of the roster changes we won't be digging into.

The Orioles, thanks to having such a young roster, didn't lose any important pieces. They also didn't add a ton, but new acquisitions like second baseman Adam Frazier as well as starters Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin should all see plenty of playing time. Top top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez should provide some excitement in their rotation.

The Red Sox brought in veteran bats in Justin Turner and Adam Duvall, as well as former elite pitchers in Kenley Jansen and Corey Kluber, but lost roster staples in DH J.D. Martinez and starter Nathan Eovaldi.

The Yankees had a relatively quiet offseason, although they lost meaningful pieces in Aroldis Chapman, Lucas Luetge and Chad Green, but are hoping for a big year from top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Pereza to help boost their offense.

Finally, the Rays had, as per usual, a very lowkey offseason. They traded away first baseman Ji-Man Choi and relievers Brooks Raley and JP Feyereisen, getting little of note in return. They'll mainly be hoping for improvement from young players like pitcher Luis Patiño and infielder Vidal Bruján to fill these voids.

Baltimore Orioles

Biggest addition: RHP Mychal Givens

Mychal Givens is in the midst of a very weird string of seasons. In each of the last three years, he has a great first half, is traded at the deadline, and upon going to a new team, immediately falls off.

This must mean that as long as you don't trade him, Givens will be great. In all seriousness though, you have to imagine that if he stays put for a full season, not having to adjust to a new environment would help him in the second half.

The Orioles signed Givens to a one-year, $5M dollar deal with a mutual 2024 option back in December for his second stint with the club. He had started his career with the O's in 2015 until he was traded to the Rockies in 2020 and has since bounced around the NL, finishing 2022 with the Mets. His control is a bit shaky but he produces tons of strikeouts, averaging over 10 per nine innings for his career, and should add to what is already a really solid bullpen.

Biggest loss: RHP Jordan Lyles

Admittedly, Jordan Lyles isn't that big of a loss, since he's not all that great, but his 179 innings pitched in 2022 were more than 50 more than any other Orioles pitcher, and it's not always easy to find that. They did, however, bring in two free agent starters to try and fill the void he'll leave after signing with the Royals, so maybe that won't be a problem at all. One of the perks of being such a young team is that you rarely lose important pieces, and for the Orioles that is certainly the case. Lyles is definitely their biggest loss, but not one they'll lose sleep over.

Breakout candidate: SS Gunnar Henderson

This might be an obvious one, but Gunnar Henderson is MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect for a reason. He made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 34 games and posting a 125 wRC+ over that stretch. However, he was 14 at-bats short of the 130 at-bat threshold to exceed rookie status, so 2023 will technically be his rookie year. He absolutely mashed in the minors and has the ability to be a legit five-tool player. The advanced metrics love him too, sitting well above the major league average in most areas, so there's plenty of reason to expect him to continue his success in 2023. The O's are loaded with young talent right now, and if players like Henderson pan out, they'll be a problem for the Blue Jays and the rest of the division.

Boston Red Sox

Biggest addition: OF Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida is the most recent NPB star to come over to MLB, having signed a five-year deal with the Red Sox this offseason. While he's currently the 87th-ranked prospect by Baseball America, he'll be playing in the bigs this season, and he's expected to be much better than that ranking would suggest. The 29-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder was a stud in Japan, posting a .960 OPS in over 700 NPB games, and projection models have him finding similar success with the Sox. STEAMER projections have him a 140 wRC+ with 50 XBHs, and while this might seem like lofty expectations for someone who's never seen major league action, but he'll get a taste of it when he represents Japan in the World Baseball Classic this March. The Red Sox are entering a new era, and they're hoping that Yoshida will play a major role in that.

Biggest loss: SS Xander Bogaerts

Both the Blue Jays and Red Sox lost their longest-tenured player this offseason, but in the case of Toronto and Teoscar Hernández, they at least got something in return. For the Red Sox, they weren't able to come to an agreement with four-time All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, leading to him signing a lucrative 11-year deal with the San Diego Padres. Bogaerts has been a staple of the post-Ortiz Red Sox, and losing him is a massive blow to a team that's coming off their worst year under Alex Cora, and his departure signals might signal some serious change in one of baseball's most successful franchises of the 21st century.

On Toronto's side of things, the absence of Bogaerts in the division will be a welcome one, although his .805 OPS against the Blue Jays was below average for his standards. The Red Sox's top prospect Marcelo Mayer is the heir-apparent to the shortstop position in Boston, but he still seems to be a year away, so for 2023 at least, expect to see some inconsistency at the position.

Breakout candidate: 1B Triston Casas

The Red Sox have struggled to find a consistent answer at first base these past few seasons, but they're hoping they found one in Triston Casas. MLB Pipeline's No. 23 prospect appeared in 27 games last season and put up a 120 wRC+, despite batting below the Mendoza line. The 23-year-old left-handed hitter had a 20% walk rate in that time, which is 12% above league average, and while that's obviously bound for regression, it's a rare skill to have in such a young player. He's got great power and could be a bit of a problem for the Rogers Centre's new right-field wall, but he's also shown the ability to take the ball to the opposite field, which will come in handy at Fenway. Most projection models have him putting up a wRC+ in the 115-20 range, with a home run total in the mid to high teens, and if he could combine that serviceable defense, he could be the Sox answer at first.

Tampa Bay Rays

Biggest addition: RHP Zach Eflin

While his past performance suggests that Zach Eflin is a pretty average starter, we all know that if the Rays target a pitcher, they likely see something worth being excited about. Eflin spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Phillies, the majority of which he spent as a starter. In 2022, he spent some time coming out of the 'pen, but it appears as though he'll be starting full-time for the Rays. Over the last four seasons, Eflin has a 105 ERA+ in over 400 innings pitched, but some advanced metric show that he could be much better. He has an elite hard hit percentage, great walk rates, and well above average expected numbers per baseball savant. Led by a healthy Tyler Glasnow and Shane McClanahan, the Rays rotation is looking to be much more impactful that we've seen it in the past, and Zach Eflin is set to be a big part of that.

Biggest loss: CF Kevin Kiermaier

Blue Jays fans should be intimately familiar with Kevin Kiermaier at this point, as the Rays legend signed in Toronto this offseason. Over his nine seasons with the Rays, Kiermaier was one of, if not the best, fielders in baseball, and took away numerous hits from the Blue Jays while patrolling center. He's been a pretty mediocre hitter for most of his career, but beyond just what he brings on the field, his presence in Tampa will be sorely missed. The Rays probably aren't too concerned about filling his offensive numbers, but his defense and leadership are a huge loss.

Breakout candidate: OF Josh Lowe

The Rays almost always have a number of young players with tons of potential, so it can be hard to predict exactly who pans out, but Josh Lowe has all the makings of a breakout star for 2023. The younger brother of Texas Rangers' first baseman, Nate Lowe, Josh appeared in 52 games with the Rays last year but struggled to the tune of an 83 wRC+. While most projection models expect Lowe to improve and become a more league-average hitter, he has a shot to be much more than that. In his 191 games at the AAA level, Lowe posted a .934 wRC+ with 36 homers and was a top 50 prospect in MLB before exceeding rookie status last season. He has the traits of a three true outcomes hitter, with high home run, walk, and strikeout totals in the minors, and this is something that can often translate to the major league level. He'll probably never be a high-average player, but expect him to slug, especially as a lefty when the Rays visit the new right field wall in the Rogers Centre. Outside of his potential at the plate, Lowe also has lots of potential in the field, with great speed and arm strength. Not all of this came together in his rookie season, but he's an incredibly talented athlete, and the type of player we often see the Rays turn into an impactful, everyday starter.