Blue Jays 2024 Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

The 2023 Toronto Blue Jays starting pitching staff was one of the biggest reasons the club finished with 89 wins and made the playoffs. In 2023, the fans and media were screaming about other areas of the roster that simply weren’t contributing like they needed to.

The starting rotation was so good in 2023 that there were legitimate questions about it being the best staff in franchise history. A remarkable eight pitchers (including Wes Parsons) made a start for the club last year. For comparison’s sake, the abysmal Colorado Rockies used 17 different starting pitchers and the National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks needed 14 pitchers to get to the end of the regular season. Toronto’s hurlers took the ball every fifth day and pitched as deep into the games as they could.

To be clear, the Blue Jays haven’t traditionally been a pitching powerhouse like the Cleveland Guardians or Tampa Bay Rays, even if there have been a handful of individual talents to wear a Toronto uniform. They simply haven’t enjoyed the same level of consistency as those other pitching behemoths.

Due to that lack of historical consistency, it will be hard to project whether this staff can assemble an encore performance in 2024. Some members of the staff are nearing free agency and possess injury concerns. Having said that, it is well past time for pitching coach Pete Walker to receive some credit for his work. Walker seems to be unlocking something special in his pitchers and that should only continue going forward. Additionally, the front office should receive credit for betting on Kevin Gausman when it seemed no one else would. Jose Berrios has proven to be a shrewd pickup and getting Chris Bassitt last winter at that price was the biggest power move of the offseason.

Without further ado, let’s get into the Blue Jays starting pitcher player projections for 2024, beginning with the man who possesses such promise but failed to put it all together last season.

Alek Manoah

Alek Manoah made his debut at Yankee Stadium in May 2021 and came out firing on all cylinders. Who could forget the images of his mom and family watching him in the bleachers in the Bronx? Manoah brought an energetic personality every time on the mound and was an All Star in 2022. His 2023 performance left a lot to be desired, including getting sent to the minor leagues twice.  Which version of Manoah will show up to spring training and the regular season?

To put it simply, the projections are more bullish on Manoah in 2024. His stats in 2023 took such a turn for the worst that a simple regression to the mean seems in order. He yielded almost as many home runs and walks, yet pitched in nearly 100 less innings than the year before!

It seemed like he was giving up a lot of loud contact and home runs, which is projected to fall back in line with MLB averages. The projections are clear in that he suffered some bad luck. His .308 BABIP jumped nearly 70 points in one season even as other indicators paint a less worrying picture. To that end, a ZiPS projection of .279 BABIP and 1.19 HR/9 would represent not only positive steps in the right direction but fall more in line with his career norms and league averages. His BB/9 is projected to be nearly cut in half, down to a more manageable 3.43.

At the same time, this may be an entirely new pitcher than what Jays fans became accustomed to seeing two years ago. He may now be a mid-rotation pitcher and that is not necessarily a bad thing. ZiPS and STEAMER both have him pegged for an upper-4.00 ERA. The key for him will be limiting the damage and hard contact. Let the strong defense behind him do the dirty work. This is a pitcher who can rack up strikeouts when he is doing well, as evidenced by the 180 he accumulated during the 2022 AL CY Young season. In short, it was one bad year and does not necessarily mean he will always be consigned to this level of production. Plus, Alek will still be controlled at relatively reasonable rates for the next four years.

At the moment, it seems that Manoah will be given every opportunity to win back his job in the starting rotation this spring.  The Blue Jays, however, aren’t taking any chances with their rotation. They brought in Yariel Rodriguez as starting depth and may need to utilize him if Manoah struggles once again.  It will be fascinating to see not only how Manoah pitches in 2024, but also how he carries himself and what version of his personality will be showcased each time he is in the spotlight.

Jose Berrios

Berrios had a fantastic year in 2023. His ERA was markedly improved from the season before and he pitched the fourth most innings of his career. A pitcher who showed such tantalizing potential with the Minnesota Twins earlier in his career finally put it together over a full season north of the border. Ironically enough, his best and most memorable start may have been in the Wild Card game in Minnesota when he was pulled after allowing one earned run in three innings.  

Berrios had such a good year in 2023 that the projections seem to forecast a slight regression for the Puerto Rican righthander. At the same time, the numbers still paint a picture of a starter who is growing more comfortable in his role and doing everything he can to take the next step. The projections indicate he may have been the beneficiary of some good luck. Having said that, ZiPS still forecasts a .292 BABIP, a number that still checks in four points under the MLB average. Strikeouts, walks, and contact numbers should all remain in a steady middle area for the righthander.

The biggest issue for Berrios in his short introduction to the Blue Jays may have been the home run ball. Berrios twisted his neck 29 times to see the ball fly over the fence in 2022, a figure he brought back into line with his career averages during the 2023 season. A figure of 1.2 HR/9 from 2023 matched his 162 game avg and early Minnesota tenure.

Overall, the arrow is pointing up for Berrios in 2024. Under the tutelage of Pete Walker, Berrios has rediscovered a new level. Berrios needs to keep attacking hitters and trust his stuff. He can be expected to settle into the middle of a vaunted rotation. Berrios is still in the middle of a $131M extension he inked prior to 2022. At age 29, he should still be in the middle of his prime.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi was another success story on the mound in 2023. His numbers in 2022 were awful with a ghastly 5.19 ERA and 5.2 BB/9 as he shuttled between the rotation and bullpen. Everyone around the Blue Jays could see the talent, but the hard part was tapping into it and getting Yusei to put it all together.

When the Blue Jays acquired him in a trade with Seattle, they knew they were making a gamble that he would be the consistent pre-2021 All Star break version of himself. That pitcher was downright spectacular, but in typical Kikuchi fashion it all unraveled in the second half of that season.

In 2023 all of his main statistics took a turn for the better.  The question is can he do that over 30+ starts again? There is good news on that front as he outperformed his FIP, 4.12 vs xFIP 3.77. Most significant? A pitcher that seemed to walk so many batters in 2022 made big strides in turning the ship around. Watching a Kikuchi inning in which he was laboring was painful and fans saw less of that in 2023. He tied a career low in BB% (6.9) and HardHit% (42.5). The walk rate was pushing twelve in the prior year.

Bottom line: It can go either way with Kikuchi. He seems to possess the most variability among any member on the staff and you don’t know which way it will go. While his injury history doesn’t have anything terribly concerning, he is prone to breakdowns at times, including if he doesn’t get enough sleep!  

Kikuchi is only signed through 2024, so it will be imperative for him to maximize his performance in order to take advantage of his value.

Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman was spectacular on the mound in 2023. Using that trademark splitter to make hitters look silly, he continued to impress Toronto fans who have seen his renaissance up close. Similar to other pitchers in this rotation, however, Gausman will be a free agent in the near future. What can we expect from the native Coloradan this season?

This is a pitcher who has found newfound heights since coming to San Francisco and Toronto. His stops in Baltimore, Cincinnati and Atlanta just don't come close to telling the current story of Gausman.

He racked up a career high 237 strikeouts in 33 starts last season. Gausman is making team history with these gaudy strikeout numbers. His strikeout, walk and home run numbers are all very healthy. Every other peripheral also seems to be either in line with league averages or his recent production.

At the same time, ZiPS sees his ERA rising to 3.46. His HardHit% rating is flirting with career highs and a few notches above MLB average. Similar to Alek Manoah, Gausman should do everything in his power to be a beneficiary of the Blue Jays' increased emphasis on run prevention. It's also worth nothing that this is a pitcher who experienced struggles around the All-Star break, a trend he was eventually able to reverse. In four outings during the month of July, he yielded nine earned runs over 23 innings. Unfortunately, that period served to allow those who don't believe in Gausman to come out of the woodwork.

Like it or not, Gausman will be toeing the slab at the top of this staff. Gausman has more than established himself in a Toronto uniform. Yes, there have been episodes of struggle in the past, but the current image shows a pitcher with supreme confidence and getting the recognition he deserves. One of the better free agent signings in Blue Jays history is almost expiring, and there are bigger moments that he and the team still want to experience together.

Yariel Rodriguez

Rodriguez is another high-upside bet on the part of the Blue Jays front office. There were a handful of interested teams who wanted to see what the young Cuban righthander still has left in the tank. Toronto ultimately swopped him up and it could prove to be a critical signing.

Rodriguez is a tough one to project simply because he didn’t pitch at all in 2023 after making his cameo in the World Baseball Classic. He was very solid in the WBC, posting 7.1 innings of two earned runs, six walks and ten strikeouts.  The main reason cited for his absence in 2023 was the desire to play in MLB and his representatives felt this was the best way to accomplish that.  

In any event, Yariel most recently pitched in 2022 as a reliever. He posted a 1.15 ERA over 54.2 innings and didn't allow a home run. The lack of home runs is especially noteworthy and it will be fascinating to see how he adjusts in Major League Baseball. That concluded what had been a three-year run as a reliever in Japan.

I think a fair projection for Rodriguez is a role akin to that of a middle reliever. He is certainly getting paid on an annual basis like a high leverage reliever charged with getting big outs. The Blue Jays can't expect him to all of a sudden make 30+ starts in the rotation given his recent workload limitations. This guy could be a huge x-factor in the second half when the rest of the rotation could be in a very different spot than at the present moment.

Wes Parsons

Wes Parsons is a really good story in MLB. Parsons struggled in the early part of his career and decided the best way to rehabilitate his career was to pitch in Korea with the KBO. He had previously logged 39.2 innings in the minor leagues for the Atlanta Braves before hitchhiking overseas. It was a smart decision on his part and other pitchers who have made a similar decision.

2021 was one of his better years as he posted a 3.72 ERA in 133 innings. Last May, the Blue Jays signed him to a minor league contract and he saw the majors in 2023 during the last game of the regular season against the Tampa Bay Rays. Facing a lineup of MLB hitters, he got lit up for nine earned runs, ten hits and three walks in four innings pitched. The result of that game meant nothing for Toronto as they had already locked up a date in the Wild Card series with Minnesota.

Working as a reliever in previous years, he has accumulated a 7.01 career ERA in 34 games at the highest level. In 2024, Parsons will continue developing his pitch mix as it is unclear whether Toronto views him as a starter or reliever. For a team that will be in need of depth, Parsons could factor in more towards the end of the regular season.

Adam Macko

Adam Macko was the headliner of the Erik Swanson trade in the winter of 2022-2023. When Toronto traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Seattle Mariners, they received Adam Macko and Erik Swanson from the Al West denizens. Erik Swanson has been a monster pickup for Toronto, pitching to a 2.97 ERA over 66.2 innings in 2023.

Macko has yet to pitch in the majors, having logged four seasons in the minors. He made it to the A+ level of the Vancouver Canadians in 2023, going 5-5 with a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings. When examining the projections, ZiPS forecast a notable jump in one important statistical category. For a pitcher who has never given up more than seven home runs in any year, they predict he will yield 11 in 2024.

Similar to Parsons, it's unclear if Toronto views him as starting or relief depth. Macko can clearly throw strikes, but it seems like he will need to improve his command as he climbs the minor league ladder. He issued twice as many walks in 2023 as his innings total climbed. Walking batters is a recipe for disaster in any role, especially in the bullpen when you are charged with getting big outs. Macko can be an important piece down the road as he still has multiple years of control remaining.