Blue Jays 2024 Season Preview: Relief pitchers

We have previously discussed the 2024 outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays catchers, infielders, outfielders and starting pitchers (links below). With the pitchers and catchers reporting soon to spring training, we will take this opportunity to complete our season preview series by taking a look at the relief pitchers. In particular, all of the organization’s bullpen arms currently occupying a spot of the 40-man roster.

Brendon Little

One of the first moves that the Jays made this offseason was the under-the-radar acquisition of left-handed pitcher Brendon Little from the Chicago Cubs. As a former promising first round selection from the 2017 MLB Draft, the Jays believe that his potential was worth taking a flyer on as they added the 27-year-old to supplement their organizational pitching depth.

Little spent the entire 2023 season pitching primarily as a reliever with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate Iowa, where he posted a 3-3 record, 4.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, with 73 strikeouts in 73.1 innings of work in 50 appearances. Having just one game of MLB experience under his belt, Little will begin 2024 with the Buffalo Bisons to serve as insurance depth in the event the Jays’ bullpen encounter some injury woes during the course of the season.

Hagen Danner

After beginning his professional baseball career with the Jays as a catcher by trade, second-round pick Hagen Danner moved to the mound following the cancelled 2020 minor league season. Despite spending just the past three years in the role of a relief pitcher, he had displayed tremendous growth and development in his game, progressing through four minor league levels in just a short amount of time.

Last year, Danner put together a strong season in the minors in which he pitched to a combined 3.66 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, with a whopping 56 strikeouts in just 39.1 innings of work. His standout performance eventually earned him a promotion to the big leagues in August. However, an unfortunate oblique injury during his MLB debut with the Jays ultimately ended his 2023 season.

With all the makings and potential of being the Jays’ closer of the future, Danner will likely begin 2024 with the Bisons, but will be among the first few in line to get a call-up if he is able to re-display his dominant form from 2023 following his successful recovery from his injury.

Zach Pop

Looking to build upon his solid performance with the Jays after coming over from a trade with the Marlins in 2022, everything that could have possibly gone wrong did so for Zach Pop in 2023. In a season that was pretty forgettable, he was plagued by inconsistencies and injuries.

After a decent start to the year, things completely fell apart for Pop as he posted a gaudy 6.59 ERA and gave up 10 earned runs including 4 home runs in just 13.2 innings pitched. Subsequently, he went down with a right hamstring injury in early May that sidelined him until early July. He was never able to regain his spot on the major league roster, as his struggles resurfaced during his rehab, resulting in the Jays keeping him down in the minors for the rest of the season.

This year, Pop will need to prove to the Jays in spring training that he could once again be someone they can count on in their everyday bullpen going forward to make it back to the majors. ZiPS projections certainly believes he can do it, as they predict he will accumulate more than 50 innings while considerably lowering his ERA back down to 4.74. Steamer predictions were even more optimistic, with his ERA getting back down to a more respectable 4.00. The opportunity will be there for the taking, so it will be up to Pop to take full advantage of it.

Tim Mayza

Tim Mayza put together the best season of his career in 2023 with the Jays. As their number one lefty option out of the pen, Mayza went 3-1 with 22 holds, a minuscule 1.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, giving up only 9 earned runs including just 2 home runs all year, along with 53 strikeouts in 53.1 innings pitched. His 1.52 ERA ranked him second among left-handed relievers with a minimum of 50 appearances behind only elite closer Josh Hader. What was more impressive was the fact that he accomplished it while pitching in many high leverage situations.

It will be a tough task to ask Mayza to repeat such an outstanding performance for 2024, as some form of regression is highly expected. ZiPS apparently agrees to that, and at quite a substantial amount as well as his ERA is predicted to balloon to 3.62, his holds will fall to only 13, and his WAR dropping from 1.3 down to 0.3. Those numbers actually mirrored more of his usual career numbers, so ultimately Mayza is expected to revert back to the norm for the upcoming season. Hopefully, he can still remain an effective situational pitcher coming out of the bullpen nonetheless, as he had done quite successfully in seasons’ past prior to his breakout in 2023.

Génesis Cabrera

Génesis Cabrera was one of the key additions from last year’s trade deadline that made a difference for the team during the stretch run. After struggling with the Cardinals for much of 2023 prior to the trade with a 5.06 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, Cabrera surprisingly raised his game to another level after joining the Jays. In 29 appearances, he compiled a 2.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, giving up only 7 earned runs with 20 strikeouts in 23.2 innings of work. More importantly, it gave the Jays another trusted lefty out of the pen so that they didn’t need to overwork Mayza, who was the sole left-handed option available prior to Cabrera’s arrival.

With the bulk of the Jays’ deadline acquisitions moving on during this offseason, Cabrera is the only one to remain with the team for 2024. However, both ZiPS and Steamer projections isn’t too kind to Cabrera as they likely took into consideration his struggling portion of the year with the Cardinals in the assessment. His ERA will jump to 4.15, while his K/9 will fall a bit from 9.38 to 9.05. However, his overall effectiveness will remain mostly intact, with holds increasing from 10 to 11 and a WAR staying relatively the same. With the Jays appearing to have given Cabrera a new life after the trade, look for him to be highly motivated going into 2024 and end up beating these projections.

Erik Swanson

In his first season with the Jays after coming over from the Mariners in the Teoscar Hernández trade, Erik Swanson put up some solid numbers overall despite a couple of drastic hiccups along the way. In 69 games, Swanson amassed a 4-2 record with a whopping 29 holds and 4 saves, along with a stellar 2.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in just 66.2 innings pitched, all while being perhaps their most reliable setup man. More importantly, he gave the Jays an alternate arm they could also go to as their closer in the event Jordan Romano wasn’t available, at least prior to Jordan Hicks’ arrival at the trade deadline.

With Hicks leaving via free agency, Swanson will return to his usual role once again in 2024 as Romano’s setup man. The bad news is that ZiPS projections has him in for a significant regression with his ERA expected to increase to 3.60. In addition, his total number of holds will drop considerably down to just 13, indicating he will play a lesser role in successfully helping close out ballgames this upcoming season, with some of his teammates stepping up to fill the void. Hopefully, that does not come to fruition as the Jays relied on him heavily last season at the most critical junctions in the game, being the second-most used reliever out of the pen. As a result, any type of downgrade of Swanson could present major issues for the team in the year ahead.

Yosver Zulueta

With many believing Jays Journal No. 14 prospect Yosver Zulueta had a legitimate shot at making his MLB debut last season, an inconsistent year in the minors put that idea to rest for the time being. In 2023, Zulueta struggled mightily with his control and command while pitching to a 4.08 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, with a staggering 45 walks to go along with 73 strikeouts in 64 innings with Buffalo. On the plus side, he showed some signs of turning things around in the latter half of the season when he posted a 2-2 record with a much-improved 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, with just 8 walks and 26 strikeouts in 21.1 innings pitched in his final 17 appearances.

Although Zulueta will get his chance this spring to fight for a potential Opening Day roster spot in the bullpen, all arrows points towards him starting the 2024 season once again with Buffalo. That way, he will be in a less stressful environment to fine-tune his control and command, along with building back up his confidence in getting hitters out with his filthy pitches. Once he makes the proper adjustments, a potential promotion to the big leagues isn’t out of the question later on in the year.

Bowden Francis

After spending almost all of his previous six seasons of his professional baseball career in the minor leagues, Bowden Francis finally got his chance to shine in the majors in 2023 when the Jays ran into some injury woes. Whenever he was called upon by the team, he certainly delivered with flying colours to say the least.

Pitching like a proven veteran while exuding confidence, Francis posted an impressive 1.73 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 35 strikeouts in 36.1 innings pitched. He managed to record his first career win, save, and hold in the process while yielding runs in just six of his 20 appearances. Even in the minors, Francis compiled a solid 2.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 10 games including 8 starts, proving that his excellence was no fluke at all levels.

However, despite such masterful performances at the major league level compared to some of his counterparts, it was quite baffling that he failed to stick permanently in the Jays’ bullpen throughout the season. He appeared more than ready to handle MLB hitters already, as any more time in the minors would seem to be a waste for his talent. Maybe because they somehow foresaw his 2024 ZiPS projections, which has his ERA climbing to 4.31, along with a walk rate ballooning from 1.98 to 3.18 per nine innings. To be honest, it’s hard to see such a huge regression occurring in Francis’ game, after seeing his dramatic growth and progression last season. So it will be up to Francis this spring to show that sometimes even statistical models can come out wrong in the end and convince management that he truly deserves a spot on their Opening Day roster.

Yimi García

For a consistent, reliable veteran reliever like Yimi García, he actually had an uncharacteristic shaky season in 2023. After posting strong numbers across the board for the Jays in 2022, García stumbled out of the gate last year by posting two losses, two blown saves, to go along with a horrendous 6.20 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over 26 games in April and May. He managed to gather himself and turn his year around beginning in June, while providing his marquee steadiness and dependability the rest of the way, outside of a rough stretch at the beginning of September. In the end, García salvaged his season with a 4.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, with 79 strikeouts in 66 innings pitched with a team-high 73 total outings.

Steamer projections has a strong outlook for García in 2024, as he is expected to regain his prior form with his ERA falling back down to a respectable 3.72. In addition, his LOB% will go back up from 69% to 74%, while his total holds will just fall slightly from 19 to 16 in total. One troubling stat though will be his walk rate, as it projects to increase drastically from 2.05 to 2.71 per nine innings. Nevertheless, the Jays will need an effective García to provide the much-needed balance of arms in their bullpen for the upcoming season. Entering his final year of his three-year contract with the team, he will certainly do all he can to help the club, along with maximizing his potential value entering free agency following the end of the season.

Chad Green

After being out for the majority of the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Chad Green made his official comeback in August with the Jays during their playoff run. His final stats of a 5.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP did not reflect the solid job that he actually did for the team, as his numbers were severely inflated due to a couple of meaningless outings in a blowout game. If removing those two outings, Green had 3 wins and a pair of holds while giving up only 3 earned runs with 15 strikeouts in 10.1 innings of work in 10 solid appearances.

The Jays totally believe in his abilities, given his impressive track record during his time with the New York Yankees. As a result, he will become an integral part of the relief corps going forward as they exercised a two-year, $21M option on Green this offseason to retain the reliable veteran through 2025. Even ZiPS has him bouncing back with a huge 2024 with his ERA coming back down to 3.53, which is more in line with his career average. In addition, he will become an important bridge to both Swanson and Romano as he is projected to have 12 holds, along with an increase in WAR from 0.3 to 0.6. Together, they will inadvertently become the team’s “three-headed monster” for their back end of the bullpen hopefully for the upcoming season and beyond.

Nate Pearson

What started as a promising, breakthrough year turned quickly into an extremely frustrating and disappointing season for Nate Pearson in 2023. After entering the season with a clean bill of health and appearing stronger than ever, Pearson finally got his promotion up from the minors in late April. Once he joined the Jays, he was absolutely lights out and on fire. He strung together a series of strong appearances up until mid-June where he compiled an impressive 4-0 record with a 1.96 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 23 innings pitched in his first 17 games. With a huge sigh of relief from Jays’ nation, it seemed at last, the Pearson that everyone was waiting for has finally arrived and was here to stay.

However, the pitching inconsistencies that has plagued him throughout his career unexpectedly reared its ugly head once again in the following weeks. Once again, he had trouble getting hitters out, along with a loss of control and command of his pitches. Consequently, he was sent back down to the minors and was eventually left off the postseason roster as well. In total, Pearson posted a 5-2 record with a 4.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, giving up 23 earned runs including 7 home runs, 18 walks and 43 strikeouts in 42.2 innings pitched.

With the hard-throwing Hicks no longer with the team, Pearson’s flaming pitch arsenal represents the best ideal replacement for Hicks for the Jays in the upcoming year. However, Pearson will need to prove in spring training that he has made the right adjustments in resolving his inconsistency issues for good. Steamer projections appear to be on his side as his ERA will fall drastically to 3.99, his K/9 strikeout rate will go up from 9.07 to a dominant 10.22, and his LOB% will go up from 67.8% to 74.3%. Those numbers better hold true for Pearson, as with time and his career rapidly ticking away, this could be his last chance to impress and stick with the team once and for all.

Jordan Romano

As one of the best closers in the game, Jordan Romano once again delivered in the most part for the 2023 season. This despite often getting the Jays’ faithful on the edge of their seats before finally finishing off ballgames. On top of that, he managed to tie his career-high in saves with 36, which also ranked him second in the American League behind Emmanuel Clase and 5th in the entire MLB. In doing so, he became a second-time All-Star in the process.

However, his 2.90 ERA and 1.22 WHIP that he ended up posting were his highest numbers since his rookie season back in 2019, which raises the question on whether or not some possible regression is occurring in his game. This became more evident during a mediocre stretch in September when he went 1-2 with a blown save, along with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in his final 9 games of the season leading up to the playoffs. Perhaps he wasn’t fully recovered from his lower-back injury that he sustained earlier during the All-Star Game and which recurred during late July. But if he was back to 100% already, this trend heading in the wrong direction is quite worrisome.

Well, Steamer projections are making some of those worries approaching more a reality for 2024, as Romano is in line to see his ERA jump to 3.67, along with a WAR falling from 1.2 down to 0.6, together with a LOB% decreasing from a strong 82.3% down to a more average 74.5%. As a closer, whose job is mainly to prevent runners from scoring when brought in for high leverage situations, the LOB% statistic for 2024 could spell even more trouble for Romano if he ever comes into a game with runners on base. On the plus side of things, at least the Jays have in store some alternate options already they could turn to in case Romano were ever to falter. But the best case scenario for the team’s sake would be for him to revert back to his unstoppable form seen in his prior three seasons; otherwise, the Jays could be in for a long season ahead without an established, shutdown closer to depend on.