Blue Jays 2024 Season Preview: Infielders

Spring training is fast approaching. The infield is set, for the most part. Vladdy and Bo are set to take their usual roles, with the rest of the infield in a state of flux. With a DH now acquired, there's likely to be a revolving door between second and third base.

There are currently thirteen infielders on the 40-man roster. Today we break down them all, discussing their 2023 and how they project in 2024.

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

With a disappointing 2023 in the rearview and free agency just two years away, the time is now for Vladdy to step up and regain that MVP form he carried throughout 2021. 

A 118 wRC+ is a respectable number if it were produced by someone like a Cavan Biggio or George Springer, as it represents being 18% better than the league average hitter at overall offensive production. But for someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose wRC+ reached a whopping 166 in 2021, 118 should feel like a number lower than his floor of production. His batted ball data remained consistent with the rest of his career, but it’s his pitch selection and discipline that need improvement.

In a highly detailed writeup by FanGraphs, they say it’s Vlad’s pitch selection causing his woes. In short it encourages him to lay off pitches in the lower portion of the strike zone and other areas he doesn’t hit well, and just focus on crushing pitches in the upper half where he has done damage throughout his career. It seems as though Vlad bought too much into the 2023 Blue Jays philosophy of "taking what the pitcher gives you", and it costed Vlad his power.

Vladdy is set to open the year batting third and playing first base, while getting his occasional starts at DH. He’s also been a model of durability over the last few years, playing in 537 of 546 games over the last four seasons. With his role all but assured, what type of production can be expected?

This is an enigma, unfortunately. Vlad can carry as many favourable projected stats and batted ball data as he wants, but unless those numbers produce real in-game results, the Blue Jays performance will suffer as a result. A variety of projections, including Steamer and ZiPS, love Vladdy for 2024. Steamer projects a 4.2 fWAR paired with a 145 wRC+, a number which would be the second best of his career, to go with 36 homers and a .285 batting average. These numbers are even better when put into perspective of the whole league, as that 145 wRC+ would tie him with Shohei Ohtani for fifth highest in MLB. Vlad would only be behind the likes of Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., Yordan Alvarez, and Juan Soto. 

The craziest part of this? It’s feasible that Vlad exceeds these expectations. He narrowly missed 50 home runs in 2021, and no one should be writing off his ability to hit .300 again and post an OPS over .900. The same dreams could turn to nightmares if you were project the worst from Guerrero, who could very well have a repeat of 2023 if the proper adjustments aren’t made. 

Vlad is incredibly difficult to project, but one thing’s for sure. The success of the 2024 Blue Jays could very well hinge on the success of the face of their franchise, and his pursuit of an MVP award.

1B Spencer Horwitz

After making his MLB debut last season, Spencer Horwitz will likely find himself on the shortlist of players called upon should an injury occur on the Blue Jays roster.

Horwitz, a 26 year old first baseman who’s also seen time in the outfield and second base, brings the attributes of contact and plate discipline to a position player core that is lacking those skills from their left-handed hitters. Horwitz had a .450 OBP over 107 games of Triple-A ball in 2023, to go with 10 home runs and 72 RBI. A .337 batting average, with much better splits against righties, solidified what was an exceptional minor league season for Horwitz. He made his debut on June 18th in Texas before being optioned two games later. He’d return in September and get into twelve more games before being left off the Wild Card Series roster.

After having demolished pitching in Buffalo last year, it doesn’t appear as though Horwitz has much left to prove, though the Blue Jays could be looking for more power production. With only ten homers at a power position like first base, the Jays may see Horwitz as needing more development time and intend on sending him to Buffalo to start 2024. Steamer likes Horwitz, projecting a .359 OBP and a 113 wRC+ for 2024, an impressive projection for someone with such little big league time.

It seems as though the floor for Horwitz is at least an above average hitter with extreme plate discipline. However, more power output and less discrepancy in his splits between lefties and righties seem like areas where Horwitz could use more seasoning. 

The first baseman seems ticketed for Buffalo come April. There’s a productive big league hitter in Horwitz, it’s just a matter of when - and where - he’ll get his shot. 

UTL Cavan Biggio

After an up and down 2023 that had Biggio see time at a handful of positions and batting fifth at the end of the season, the former top prospect enters 2024 with his role up in the air.

Biggio was about a league average hitter last season, posting an OPS+ of 98 and a wRC+ of 103. This was done while showing phenomenal versatility, as he played a great second base as well as third base, first base, right field and even made an appearance at short-stop. Biggio entered 2023 without a concrete role. With Matt Chapman locked in at third and Whit Merrifield hitting his way into a starting role at second, Biggio was left to make the most out of his opportunities when given them. 

Biggio's calling card as always been his plate discipline, which showed this past year with a .340 OBP. In the past, power has usually came with that. But with no real consistent playing time, it seemed as though his quality of contact and batted balls took a hit. With a slugging percentage of just .370, the Blue Jays would like to see that number creep back up into the .400s like we saw in 2019 and 2020. Those were years where he was playing full-time, and it looks like that could be the case this year. 

The Blue Jays are without a full-time third baseman. With Justin Turner now in the fold, Davis Schneider should be pressed into more second base starts, pushing Biggio to third base as part of a platoon. Regular playing time has served Biggio well in the past, as over 159 games in 2019 and 2020 he posted a 116 OPS+ with a .368 OBP. It’s feasible that the Blue Jays are banking on this type of production from him, as he looks to be primed for an everyday role in 2024.

Barring an injury or the surprising acquisition of another infielder (maybe a re-signing of Matt Chapman), expect to see a lot of Biggio in 2024, with hopefully the best parts of his game on regular display. 

INF Santiago Espinal

Espinal is coming off a difficult 2023. All aspects of his game took a step back, including his glove. 

Known as someone who puts plenty of bat on ball and being slick in the field, only one of those remained true last year. Espinal maintained respectable strikeout and whiff percentages, but that did not translate into a high OBP. Despite a 14.2 K% Espy only hit to a .248 batting average with a .310 OBP, that batting average being a career low. His drop in defence was the surprising part, as Espinal had been a well above average fielder up until 2023. The utility infielder had 9 outs above average in 2022, a metric that dropped drastically to -4 this past season. This performance culminated in a 0.5 bWAR.

Something not discussed enough, Espinal’s game has taken a hit since his efforts to produce more power since 2022. Espinal stepped into almost regular playing time in 2021, playing a lot of third base at an elite level. Espy backed it up with a strong offensive season as well, barely striking out and hitting to a .311 average though with little power production. Still, a 113 OPS+ over those 92 games is an extremely respectable number for a glove first utility-man. Despite this performance, Espinal and the Blue Jays sought more power.

While Espy was an All-Star in 2022, his slugging percentage dropped by 35 points despite hitting a career high seven long-balls. These problems carried over to this past year, resulting in an 80 OPS+, his lowest since his rookie year in 2020.

There’s a chance Espinal isn’t a Blue Jay on opening day. He’s out of options and the infield depth on the Blue Jays is plentiful. The best case for Espinal is that he resorts back to his contact heavy approach, fixes the issues that led to the disappointing defensive metrics, and maintains a backup infielder role through 2024. 

2B Davis Schneider

The Davis Schneider ride was fun last year. Setting numerous rookie records, both for the club and MLB as a whole, Schneider cooled off over the final weeks of the season. After hitting to a 1.420 OPS in August, that number fell drastically and he only hit .174 in September/October. Those that watched his at-bats saw a lot of bad luck over that final stretch, as a lot of his balls were hard hit and many good plays were made to take away hits.

This bad luck was reflected in his peripherals, which were ridiculous in his small sample size. Schneider was a barrel king and had an xwOBA of .355 over his 35 big league games. This high barrel rate and exceptionally disciplined approach bodes well for a team looking for more pop.

While some of the questions lie on how real Schneider’s production was and how much of a threat he’ll be over a full big league season, there’s also the question of how much playing time will be available?

After the signing of Justin Turner, who’ll be mostly DHing while seeing time throughout the infield occasionally, Schneider could be in line to get the majority of starts at second base. ZiPS likes Schneider’s skillset, and it’s reflected in their projections. They project a 3.1 fWAR and a 112 wRC+ from the rookie infielder, respectable numbers for a guy who barely played a full month in MLB.

Fans want to see more of the ‘Babe’, and rightfully so. For a lineup looking for more power, Schneider’s constant presence and production in the lineup seems like a necessity.

INF Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement was a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays organization last year. Having never posted an OPS higher than .732 in the minors, Clement exploded in Buffalo to the tune of a .348/.401/.544 slash line under hitting coach Matt Hague. This translated into a solid showing over 29 games with the Blue Jays, where he hit .380 and played admirable defence at short, second and third.

Clement enters 2024 without a clear role, and may be on the outside looking in. Projections don’t love Ernie, forecasting only a 93 wRC+. Clement doesn’t make much consistently hard contact, while having poor metrics related to barrel rate and hard hit percentage. That being said, he rarely whiffs, making contact with most pitches he swings and putting pressure on opposing defences with his above average speed.

Clement seemed to endear himself to fans, appearing as a grinder and a good teammate whilst boasting respectable numbers. He’s out of options, so the Blue Jays would likely lose him on waivers should he not make the team out of camp. However, given his offensive strides and skillset of an effective backup infielder, some would say Clement has earned a spot on this roster. It remains to be seen how this infield shapes up, as Clement is one of the pieces in this current logjam of major league infield talent.

UTL Otto Lopez

Lopez went from possible utility-man to 40-man roster afterthought in one season. That was in spite of performing admirably for Canada in the WBC, producing clutch hits and playing a solid short-stop. Still, injuries limited Otto in 2023 and he never appeared in a game for Toronto.

After a solid 2022 that saw a .759 OPS as a Bison, Lopez dealt with several lingering injuries and inconsistencies that cost his performance this past year. His OPS dropped over 100 points, and Otto was left off the MLB roster in favour of players like Clement and Schneider at various points of the season. 

Lopez finds himself out of options entering camp in 2024. It appears something drastic would have to occur in order for Otto to be a Blue Jay this season. Between his versatility, athleticism, and contact rates, there’s a solid big leaguer in Otto. It just looks as though it won’t be the Blue Jays who get to see it.  

DH/CI Justin Turner

The newest Blue Jay, to the mixed review of fans, is Justin Turner. Set to DH while making the occasional start in the infield, Turner serves as a replacement for Brandon Belt. A veteran slugger with the reputation of being a leader in the club house, Turner brings a dynamic offensive skillset to an offensive that was in need of a boost. 

Entering his age 39 season, Turner is coming off a 114 OPS+ over 146 games with the Red Sox. JT offers a bit of everything at the plate, with respectable expected stats to go along with low chase and whiff rates. His slash line over the last three seasons works out to a .277/.352/.455 clip, averaging 21 home runs and 88 RBI over the span.

Turner has variable projections amongst the various resources, ranging anywhere from a 98 wRC+ to a 122 wRC+. It’s fair to assume Turner will at least be on base consistently and be relied on to drive in runs. His diverse offensive skillset helps him hit anywhere in the lineup, and his experience in the field is valuable should someone like Vlad or Bo need a day to DH. 

Like it or not, JT is set to be a big contributor for this offence. There are still a few weeks left in the offseason, but there’s a real possibility that Turner is the final cog added to this lineup.

3B/RF Addison Barger

Viewed as someone who could've contributed to the MLB squad in 2023, lingering injuries likey costed Barger a chance at his MLB debut.

Ranked as the fifth best prospect in the Blue Jays system per MLB.com, Barger is a left-handed power hitter with the potential to provide plus defence at either third base or right field. He has one of the best arms in the system, rivalling that of Matt Chapman in spring training last year. He's also spent time at short-stop and second base.

Barger impressed many with his tape measure home runs in spring training action, but a lingering bicep issue cut into his development at Triple-A Buffalo. Barger accumulated a .933 OPS through three levels of minor league baseball back in 2022, but saw that number drop to .745 this past year.

If Barger can remain healthy, continue to improve defensively, and regain that power stroke that shot him up prospect rankings, the former sixth round pick could have a role on the Blue Jays at some point in 2024. With third base not being locked down by anyone and Barger already being on the 40-man roster, we could be seeing some Barger bombs at the Rogers Centre this year.

3B/SS Orelvis Martinez

Another prospect with pop, Orelvis Martinez is a name that fans of the club should be familiar with by now. A steady riser in prospect rankings for a few years now, Martinez currently resides as the second highest in the organization behind Ricky Tiedemann. 

Martinez’s biggest tool his is power, hitting 28, 30, then 28 home runs again from 2021-2023 respectively. The caveat being his proneness to striking out, doing so a whopping 126 times last year in 125 games. In the past, this deficiency came without the benefit of walking, however that narrative has changed this past season much to the delight of the Blue Jays. A young, athletic infielder with power and plate discipline is a good thing to have, and he’s only 21.

Now on the 40-man roster, Martinez should be set to open the season with the Bisons. Similar to Barger, should he be seeing success and continued development in his plate discipline, he could be called upon to provide some pop to a lineup that was craving it last year.

With time at both third base and short-stop, it’s possible Martinez could be gearing up for a bigger role with this club in the near future. His playing time during spring training will be something to keep an eye on, and he could be a fun guy to look out for later in the season.

UTL Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Another new Blue Jay, the utility-man known as IKF enters the fold as glove first depth piece that puts the bat on the ball. Kiner-Falefa has been a gifted fielder his entire career. Actually starting off as a catcher, he transitioned to the infield as a member of the Texas Rangers, even winning a Gold Glove at third base after the 2020 season. He was then acquired by the Yankees to take over short-stop, but he lost his job last season in favour of Anthony Volpe and was relegated to a depth role, one that saw him spend more time in the outfield.

Having an abundance of experience under his belt, Kiner-Falefa enters 2024 with mild expectations. After posting just an 82 wRC+ last season, Steamer projects an 89 wRC+ for IKF in 2024. While he spent most of his time in the outfield last year, the Blue Jays have more playing time available in their infield, where IKF is more comfortable. It’s feasible that he’ll be prioritized in at bats against left-handed pitching and see a lot of time at third, splitting time there with Cavan Biggio. 

Kiner-Falefa is far from the impact deal Jays fans could’ve expected for this season, but he’s a more than capable depth player who could see time everywhere in the field. With a whiff rate in the 81st percentile last year and an OAA in the 77th percentile, Kiner-Falefa is about as sure of a bet to provide a solid baseline of protection for the regulars in this lineup.

SS/2B Leo Jimenez

One of the younger members of the 40-man roster, Jimenez is currently the 6th highest rated prospect in the organization. A sure-handed middle infielder with excellent plate discipline, Jimenez made great strides last year in the minors.

After torching Double-A to an .808 OPS, Jimenez was brought up to Buffalo to finish the season. He slashed .191/.338/.238 as a Bison, a line that leaves a lot of room for improvement but still illustrates his solid approach at the plate. Jimenez is set to be a part of a solid Buffalo infield come April, and could have a role with the big league club in the near future. 

For now, the organization is focused Jimenez’s development. Expect to see him in spring training, and hopefully hear good things from the Bisons on his development as the season goes on.