As the Blue Jays look to retool for 2025, an early look at potential free agents

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With the last place Toronto Blue Jays most likely sellers of their pending free agents ahead of the July 30 trade deadline this month, let’s look at potential free agents who could help this team retool for a run at a World Series in 2025.

With the Blue Jays 15.0 games back in the AL East and 7.0 games back in the Wild Card standings, reality is setting in: this just isn’t a very good team. GM Ross Atkins and his front office have a chance to retool this roster starting with the Trade Deadline, when they can get the team’s competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll back under the luxury tax threshold of $237M by dealing away their rental players: Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi García, Trevor Richards, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier.

Not only would that help reset the Blue Jays luxury tax penalty to zero if they dip below the threshold before the final CBT figure is calculated at the end of the season, it would allow them to get some prospects in return for players that can just walk as free agents after the season, and the front office could start focusing on how to improve this team for another run next year after a lost 2024 season.

It sounds like ownership and management are committed to taking one more shot at a World Series championship with the core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette before they become free agents after next season. Chris Bassitt will also be a free agent after 2025, along with Jordan Romano, Chad Green and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The #BlueJays “want to make one last run with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette” and currently don’t plan on trading them this summer, per @BNightengale pic.twitter.com/PxpYGYkTJZ
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) June 30, 2024

Which free agents could the Jays add for 2025 and beyond?

Luckily for Toronto, the upcoming 2024-25 free agent class is absolutely stacked, with All-Stars available at every position, along with a number of Silver Sluggers, Cy Young winners and former World Series champions.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) ranked the top 100 available free agents this upcoming offseason, and its a smorgasbord of talent for a team in need of offence, starting pitching depth and high leverage relief options.

The crème de la crème

The Blue Jays should have somewhere in the neighbourhood of ~$60M in annual payroll capacity to work with under the 2025 MLB luxury tax threshold of $241M, after accounting for all of their committed contracts and likely arbitration awards for players next season. Of course, ownership has also shown a willingness to spend above that limit, although they should be below that threshold after selling their pending free agents this year.

So technically, they do have the payroll room to add a big contract for the best available free agents, who include outfielder Juan Soto, aces Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Clay Holmes.

Of those players, Burnes, Bregman and Holmes are all likely the best in terms of potential fit. Soto appears happy in New York, and is likely to sign a massive deal with one of the two teams there, while Alonso would be redundant on a team making a final run with Guerrero.

29-year-old Burnes is a bona fide ace, and is among the favourites to win the AL Cy Young this year, with a 9-3 record, 2.4 fWAR and 2.28 ERA in 17 starts and 106.2 innings. Adding him to headline a 2025 Blue Jays rotation with Kevin Gausman, Bassitt and José Berríos would make the Jays a fearsome opponent. 30-year-old southpaw Fried would offer similar dominance; he’s 7-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 16 starts and 96 innings for Atlanta this year, with a 1.9 fWAR.

Bregman is 30-years-old now, and he’s hitting below his career numbers, which could lower his price tag; he’s slashing .251/.309/.401 with an OPS of .711 this year (OPS+ 101), but his career averages over 162-games of 27 home runs, 97 RBI and a .272/.368/.480 slash line with an OPS of .849 (32% better than the MLB average over his 9-year career) should all appeal to a Jays team that lacks power.

The 31-year old Holmes has 19 saves with a 2.65 ERA, and depending on Romano’s wonky elbow, the Jays might need a closer with a proven track record in the AL East.

Power Bats Galore

For a team with a flawed and mediocre offence like Toronto, all of these potential 2024-25 free agents would lead the current 2024 edition of the Blue Jays in home runs and RBI: Anthony Santander, Marcell Ozuna, Soto, Alonso, Teoscar Hernández, Willy Adames and Christian Walker.

Of those, Santander, Hernández and Adames probably make the most sense. A reunion with Guerrero’s close friend might appeal to Blue Jays fans yearning for the powerhouse Toronto offence of 2021 that banged out an MLB leading 262 home runs. And at age 31, Hernández’s bat continues to be a productive force; he’s crushed 18 home runs, 58 RBI and has an OPS of .796 (OPS+ 123). His DRS of +3 in RF also isn’t terrible.

Santander obviously knows the AL East and could slot into left field, with Varsho moving to CF. And the 29-year-old switch hitter has 22 home runs and 56 RBI this year with an .805 OPS and OPS+ of 129. Adames could slot over to third base and back up Bichette at short, and he can also provide power, with 13 homers, 55 RBI and an OPS of .735 (OPS+ 107) this year.

Starters, closers and pitching depth names

Pitching depth remains an Achilles heel for the Blue Jays organization, and with so many prospect arms going under the knife this year, this should be a fertile hunting ground this coming offseason. Of course the Jays could try to re-sign Kikuchi, but they could also consider starters like Jack Flaherty and relievers like Kenley Jansen, Héctor Neris and Ryan Pressly.

The 28-year-old Flaherty might be the most appealing of that group, putting up a solid 3.24 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 15 starts and 89 innings for the Detroit Tigers this year, good for an fWAR of 2.1. Meanwhile, even at age 36, Jansen has 16 saves in 28.1 innings, with a 2.22 ERA and 2.10 FIP as the Red Sox closer in 2024.

Canadians, eh!

The Red Sox have two pending Canadian-born free agents in 31-year-old starter Nick Pivetta, who’s 4-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 12 starts and 61.2 innings, and 29-year-old outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who’s banged out 16 home runs with an .880 OPS playing the corner outfield spots for Boston with a DRS of +1.

A Chad Green-type deal for a potential ace

After structuring a creative contract to sign the rehabbing Chad Green ahead of the 2023 season, could the Blue Jays looks to do something similar with a duo of potential free agent aces in Shane Bieber and Walker Buehler? Or with rehabbing free agent relievers like Daniel Bard and Kendall Graveman?

Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, continues to rehab from season-ending Tommy John surgery in early April, but could be back to contribute next year. The 29-year-old righty went 62-32 with a 3.22 ERA in 134 starts over seven seasons with Cleveland, and led the majors in wins, ERA and strikeouts during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Buehler, who turns 30 this month, has struggled with injuries, making only 20 starts since the 2021 season; he’s back on the 15-day IL, this time with right hip inflammation.

So there are lots of options and lots of angles the Blue Jays could take to surround Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt and the rest of their current core with free agent talent to improve this roster, and make a run at a World Series championship next year. The sooner the front office starts to focus on that, likely the better!

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