Analyzing Shota Imanaga and how he would fit with the Blue Jays

Is Imanaga a possibility for the Jays?

After taking a detailed look into how Yoshinobu Yamamoto profiles in MLB, it only makes sense shift attention over to the other prominent Japanese pitcher on the market, Shōta Imanaga. The need for a starting pitcher is not obviously apparent for the Blue Jays but as a general rule you can never have enough quality starting pitching. Alek Manoah's name has frequently come up in trade talks this offseason and moving Yusei Kikuchi, who has one year left on his contract, also remains a possibility. A move like that could land the Jays a much needed bat - perhaps one of Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco - and then allow them to pivot into the starting pitching market where Imanaga is one of the most intriguing names still on the board.

FanGraphs' Crowdsourcing only projects him for a four-year, $66M contract; a deal close to what Kodai Senga got last offseason seems most likely (five years, $75M) and it's worth noting he comes with a posting fee to the Yokohama Baystars which would be at minimum 20 percent of the guaranteed money he gets.

Imanaga has yet to be formally linked to the Jays but not much is known about his market overall. The Jays did scout him in person back in June according to the Yakyu Cosmopolitan. It's worth noting he threw a complete game in that outing.

Imanaga's Repertoire

Frame and Size

The 30-year-old lefty stands at just 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds but his track record of consistent health and around 150-160 innings a year in the NPB eases concerns about how his body will hold up in MLB. NPB pitchers work under different schedules than MLB pitchers. They pitch with more rest but often go deeper into games meaning these innings totals are more impressive than they sound. In fact, his 148 innings ranked 8th among all NPB pitchers this year.

Fastball

Imanaga uses his ~92 MPH fastball over half the time. It was around 95 MPH in his World Baseball Classic appearances but this wasn't the norm for him in Japan. It's not the velocity that makes it appealing but its otherworldly specs that let it play up as a plus offering. It has outlier induced vertical break (19+ inches), which means it gets extreme ride. Combine that with his ability to throw it from a very low release height and it's a unique bat-missing fastball that looks like it's rising up at hitters. These types of fourseamers perform well when located at the top of the zone and luckily for Imanaga, he has outstanding command of it. He pounds the zone with his fastball and dares hitters to beat him, a high risk-high reward trade that he may need to cut back on in MLB. Hitters tend to swing under his fastball which means he gets a lot of flyballs on it when they do make contact. On the occasion that he leaves it over the middle of the plate those flyballs can turn into home runs. It's a great pitch but it doesn't come without potential flaws.

The best MLB comparison to Imanaga's fastball is Nestor Cortes, who throws his at a similar velocity with similar ride and release height. A pitch doesn't play on it's own but it's worth noting that Cortes' heater has a +35 RunValue since 2021. Don't be scared off by the velocity, these types of fastballs can work really well when executed properly.

Splitter

Imanaga's best and most used secondary offering is his splitter. It tunnels well off his fastball before diving out of the zone. It's projecting as a plus pitch in MLB given it's whiff rate and chase rate in the NPB as well as it's World Baseball Classic Stuff+ grade. He throws a changeup variation of his splitter which gives hitters a different look. They didn't have much success against either pitch across his NPB career. Offspeed pitches tend to be platoon neutral offerings meaning they can be reliable pitches for him against right handed hitters. His splitter will be a really important pitch for keeping the ball in the yard and setting up his fastball. It certainly looks the part and he knows how to weaponize it to it's full potential.

Slider

Imanaga throws a traditional slider a tick or two over 80 MPH. It's a strong two-plane break offering that eats up left-handed hitters in particular and that's when he likes to deploy it most. He'll use a slower sweeping version as well which could be something he starts to lean on more in MLB. His slider had a 111 Stuff+ in the World Baseball Classic and is an above average pitch for him that can get swing and miss in and out of the zone.

Curveball

He doesn't use his curveball much and that's something that is likely to continue in MLB. It's a slow loopy breaking ball that is designed to give hitters a different look and get called strikes. This is a pitch that Imanaga may need to move off of given how MLB hitters are more aggressive than NPB hitters.

Cutter

Imanaga did not need his cutter much last year but he may need to lean on it more in MLB. It's a barrel missing offering that will cut away from lefties and jam righties. It's not a big swing and miss pitch for him but given his excellent command of it it could be used to keep hitter's honest on his fastball.