After Yusei Kikuchi trade heist, the Blue Jays must trade Chris Bassitt

With the impressive return the Blue Jays front office just secured for a two month rental of back of the rotation starter Yusei Kikuchi, and a clear need to restock this organisation with higher end, young talent, should two potential playoff runs with consistent Jays’ starter Chris Bassitt be on the table?

Toronto will have to strike fast while the iron is hot: MLB’s Trade Deadline ends today at 6:00 p.m. ET. The AL East leading Baltimore Orioles and NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers, with their highly ranked farm systems stocked with exactly the type of MLB-ready prospects the Blue Jays organisation covets, are both in the market for starting pitching to try to help them win the World Series. The New York Yankees are also rumoured to be interested in starting pitching and also need relief help, which should also put Chad Green in play.

Bassitt was already rumored to be of interest to the Orioles, with ESPN’s Buster Olney suggesting late last month that the Blue Jays could be a surprise trade partner and Bassitt could be what the Orioles need. They are also rumoured to be interested in 2023 NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who’s been struggling on a one-year show me deal with a second year player option with the San Francisco Giants, after only signing in late March.

A seller’s market?

Baltimore has already acquired starter Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay, who’s still owed roughly $3.8M of his $11M salary, with a a big jump to $18M next year. He cost them two of their top 30 prospects in INF/OF Mac Horvath (O’s No. 10 prospect) and RHP Jackson Baumeister (No. 17), plus OF Matthew Etzel. They also acquired playoff experienced reliever Seranthony Dominguez ($8M club option for next year) and outfielder Cristian Pache from the Phillies for former All-Star Austin Hays.

The Dodgers have already acquired infielder utility infielder Tommy Edman and right-handed reliever Michael Kopech in a three-team deal with the Cardinals and White Sox Monday morning, and also swung a trade with the Rays to acquire infielder Ahmed Rosario for Triple-A right-hander Michael Flynn. Edman and Kopech cost them INF/OF Miguel Vargas (the No. 37 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline ahead of the 2023 season), INF prospect Jeral Perez (LAD No. 17), INF prospect Alexander Albertus (LAD No. 23), plus a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Baseball America (subscription required) ranked all three players Toronto acquired in the Kikuchi trade in Houston’s top 30 prospects ahead of the season. One caveat to that is that they also ranked the Astros’s farm No. 29 out of 30 teams, not No. 1 like the Orioles system or No. 9 and No. 10 like the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. Astros fans are decidedly dejected about the cost for for two months of Kikuchi, and Blue Jays MLB beat writer Keegan Matheson notes that Jake Bloss was about to jump to be the No. 2 prospect in the Astros system.

So what could the return be for Bassitt, who is owed ~$7M still this season, and whose contract runs through the 2025 season for $21M next year? Based on the Eflin and Kikuchi deals, he should return at least 2~3 top 20 prospects from either Baltimore or Los Angeles.

The 35-year-old Bassitt is 8-9 this year on a bad Blue Jays team, with a 3.78 ERA and 3.91 FIP in 21 starts and 119 innings. He’s also been extremely blunt and honest about the Blue Jays woes. But he’s been a remarkably consistent workhorse over the past four seasons, posting a 51-30 record with a 3.47 ERA and 3.82 FIP over 111 starts and 658 innings for Oakland, the New York Mets and now Toronto. That’s an average of 28 starts and 164 innings pitched per season, with an ERA+ of 117, or 17% better than the MLB average over that stretch.

Bassitt also ranks 23rd among qualified starters in baseball over the past four seasons with an fWAR of 10.7, and 8th in terms of innings pitched. In other words, the trade return for Yusei Kikuchi implies that another 1.5 years of control of Bassitt, with the potential for two postseason runs, should be very valuable here at the Trade Deadline. Let’s hope the Blue Jays front office takes advantage of that seller’s market for starting pitching, and moves Bassitt ASAP. He’s not getting any younger, and deserves a shot at a World Series, while Toronto could use another prospect haul. Win win.