A closer look at the rise and fall of former Blue Jays top prospect Nate Pearson

“What could have been?” is probably the notion that comes to mind when it comes to Nate Pearson and his tumultuous career with the Toronto Blue Jays. The once-promising prospect taken in the first round of the 2017 MLB Draft had the potential to become the next Roy Halladay with exceptional strikeout ability, but unfortunately it has not come to fruition. So what has happened to Pearson and his supposedly limitless potential?

Here, we take a closer look back at the rise and fall of the now former top prospect of the Jays’ organization.

Rapid ascension through the minor leagues

With his impressive accolades leading up to the 2017 MLB Draft, the Jays gladly selected Pearson out of the College of Central Florida with their first round pick. In short order, Pearson would get his first taste of professional baseball coming right out of the draft as he joined the Bluefield Blue Jays of the Jays’ Rookie affiliate. He pitched in one game before he was subsequently promoted to the Jays Low-A affiliate Vancouver Canadians where he officially began his growth and development in the organization. Armed with a plus-fastball that could hit triple digits and with a scouting grade of 80, it was believed that Pearson could utilize his blistering pitch to full advantage in fast-tracking to the major leagues in due time. He certainly impressed during his first minor league season, as he ended up posting a spectacular 0.90 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, giving up only two earned runs with five walks and 26 strikeouts in 20 innings pitched in total.

Everything appeared to be going as planned for Pearson as in 2018, he was already elevated to High-A to start the season with the Dunedin Blue Jays. However, that was when the string of unfortunate injuries began to rear its head over his career. A fractured forearm as a result of a line drive put Pearson out for the year after just 1.2 innings into the season. No one knew at the time that he would encounter more injury troubles down the road and just attributed this one to bad luck.

It sure looked great for him the following season, as Pearson appeared to be back and strong as ever, as he ascended through three minor league levels and eventually reached Triple-A Buffalo by the end of the season. 2019 also marked the year in which he has pitched the most innings in his career to date, as he went 5-4 with an impressive 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, giving up 26 earned runs, 27 walks and a whopping 119 strikeouts over 101.2 innings of work. He definitely appeared ready for prime time sooner rather than later. With that, Pearson would end up being ranked among the top 10 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list in the following two years, with his potential seemingly limitless at this point.

The long-awaited MLB debut and arrival of Nate Pearson

In 2020, with the COVID pandemic wiping out the entire minor league season, Pearson finally made his MLB debut with the Jays, as many of the Jays’ faithful had been anticipating for his arrival for quite some time. He certainly delivered what many were expecting as in his first start, he would go five strong scoreless innings, giving up only two hits, two walks while striking out five against the Washington Nationals. Despite the performance, Pearson would end up getting a no-decision as the Jays lost 4-0 in the end.

Unfortunately, following his impressive debut, things would begin to unravel in his following starts, as he constantly ran into trouble with command and hitters getting on base. Despite his struggles, the Jays somehow managed to earned him a no-decision in each of those starts, bailing him out with some much-needed offence in the process. However, Pearson ultimately lost his starting gig, along with suffering a minor elbow ailment in August, as the Jays traded for starting pitching depth at the trade deadline by acquiring both Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker for the stretch run. Pearson would end up pitching just once more during the regular season, making a relief appearance near the end of the season, but somehow earning his first ever MLB win in the process.

But what actually was the highlight of Pearson’s 2020 season came in the playoffs when the Jays played the Tampa Bay Rays in the three-game Wild Card series. After starter Hyun Jin Ryu was knocked out of the game after just 1.2 innings, along with Ross Stripling after another 1.1 innings, it was show time for Pearson. He was called in from the bullpen and he ended up delivering his best performance of the season, striking out five of the six batters he faced in dominant fashion over two innings of work. Even though the Jays ended up losing the game and the series, many left with the impression that the Jays have their future ace in the making with that kind of performance by Pearson at the biggest stage of a do-or-die game in the playoffs.

Struggles with injuries beset his promising career

As the 2021 season rolled around, that was when Pearson’s roller coaster career was beginning to set in motion. During Spring Training, Pearson would suffer a nagging abductor strain in his groin that would end up causing him to miss game action multiple times during the 2021 season. In the end, he would even require sports hernia surgery to rectify the issue prior to the start of the following season.

As a result, Pearson was limited to just 12 games with the Buffalo Bisons all year, along with just 12 relief appearances with the big league club as a September callup. There was no doubt that his nagging injury limited his consistency and effectiveness, as he went 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, giving up 14 hits, seven earned runs, 12 walks and 20 strikeouts in just 15 innings pitched with the Jays.

In 2022, to his luck, the injury bug hit Pearson once again during Spring Training, but this time he caught a bout of mononucleosis, an energy-sapping illness that pretty much wiped out the first couple months of his season. His unfortunate luck would strike again later that summer as he would be shut down for another couple of months due to a lat injury.

As a result, he only appeared in 12 minor league games in total for all of 2022, which has certainly been a huge setback for Pearson, who once had already made his major league debut just two years prior. Nevertheless, he wound up with a 2-1 record, posting a respectable 3.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, striking out 19 in 15.1 innings of work despite the limited appearances.

With the injuries mounting from the past couple of years, along with the lack of innings built up as a result, the best course of action for the Jays was probably to utilize Pearson primarily as a reliever going forward to minimize any further health risks, along with maximizing his still hopeful potential. After all, there have been many baseball greats such as Andrew Miller, Eric Gagné, and even the legend Mariano Rivera that began their careers as starters but ended up becoming dominant superstars once converted into relievers. So there was still a chance for Pearson to salvage his once-promising career in the coming years.

The best of times and the worst of times for the 2023 season

Finally, for 2023, it appeared as though he finally had a clean bill of health. With all of his setbacks and injuries put behind him once and for all, this was the year Pearson was going to show the baseball world what he can do. Despite starting the year in Buffalo, his impressive start to the season in which he struck out 25 in just 12 innings of work while sporting a 1.50 ERA earned him a truly deserving promotion to the big league club by the end of April.

From there, it seemed like the highly-touted, fearless and overpowering Pearson has finally arrived and was finally going to stick with the team for good. Up until mid-June, it had been the most dominant stretch we had seen in his major league career, as he went 4-0 with a tidy 1.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP,.193 opponents batting average, giving up only five earned runs, five walks and 26 strikeouts in 23 innings pitched. Not only that, but he seemed in full command of his pitches, along with tantalizing hitters by attacking them in the strike zone with pure confidence.

However, whether it was fatigue resulting from his lack of innings built up from the previous three seasons due to injuries, or opposing batters have finally figured him out, the monumental rise of Pearson would suddenly fall back to earth in the past couple of months. From mid-June onwards, he had reverted back to his inconsistent form seen in his two prior years in MLB, with glimpses of dominance mixed in with struggles finding the plate. In his last 16 games, he has pitched to an unworldly 9.53 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, giving up 17 hits, 18 earned runs, 11 walks and 15 strikeouts in just 17 innings of work. As a result, he has been optioned back down to the minors and has been yo-yoing up and down since then.