6 difficult roster decisions the Toronto Blue Jays must address ASAP

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For the season, the Toronto Blue Jays have definitely been on a roller coaster ride, having many ups and downs along the way. There were certain times they appeared to be headed towards a breakout run, then at the same time there were times they seemed done for the season. Nevertheless, somehow and some way, the Jays are still currently positioned within reach of playoff contention as we approach halfway through the 2023 season.

As it currently stands, the Jays are sitting fourth, 10 games out of first place in the AL East with a 41-35 record. With respect to the wild card positions, they are right in the thick of things, trailing both the Houston Astros and New York Yankees by half a game for the second and third wild card spots, with the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox in hot pursuit as well, currently tied with and two games behind the Jays respectively. Looking ahead, the Jays will be encountering a favourable part of their schedule, facing the bottom-feeding Oakland Athletics, as well as their last place AL East rivals in the Red Sox, in addition to sub .500 teams in the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers for four of the next five series, so how well the Jays do will help determine ultimately their fate heading into the stretch run.

With that in mind, the Jays should aim to be at their absolute best to take advantage of it and field their best possible lineup against such opponents to ensure optimal chance of securing victories. As a result, both the Jays’ management and coaching staff have some crucial, yet essential, roster decisions in which they must make before the end of the month that could dictate their potential for success. Here, we take a look at 6 important roster moves that could determine the Jays’ fate for the rest of 2023.

1. How important is the need for a fifth starter?

Ever since Alek Manoah was optioned to the Florida Complex League back on June 6th, the Jays have gone with a four-man rotation of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Yusei Kikuchi to go along with a bullpen day whenever the fifth spot in the rotation came up, taking into account off days that could be used to skip that part in the rotation from time to time. As a short-term solution, this appeared to be feasible as the Jays currently have some arms in the bullpen that could go some length in Trevor Richards, Nate Pearson, Trent Thornton, and Mitch White.

However, as witnessed after a recent bullpen game against the Texas Rangers on June 17th, the Jays unfortunately followed it up with two horrendous outings from their starters in the next two games, forcing them to overtax their bullpen, resulting in Nate Pearson having his worst two outings so far this year and having recent callup and positional player Ernie Clement eventually even forced to pitch an inning to help ease the situation. This presents a huge issue that should not be overlooked, since if the Jays’ starters fail to produce quality starts and require frequent usage of the bullpen, along with a bullpen day every fifth start, their bullpen will eventually be overworked and that certainly won’t bode well as the year progresses on.

As a result, the Jays must make the decision on how much longer can they sustain this before they should add back a fifth starter to their rotation. When they do, do they bring one up from the minors (e.g. Bowden Francis), or should they pursue the trade route and secure a solid fifth man, with hopes that Manoah may be back later on in the season? To remain in serious contention, the Jays shouldn’t play around with this roster option too long before it’s beyond recovery.

2. Where should Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit in the lineup?

This is a question normally one wouldn’t have had any doubt in the past, as Guerrero has always been near the top of the lineup, either in the second slot, and most prominently in the third slot for the past three years to ensure maximal damage and run production. However, this year has been different for Guerrero, as he appears to be struggling with power at the plate despite his numbers, somewhat similar to the time when he first joined the big league team back in 2019. He is currently hitting only .275 with 31 runs scored, nine home runs and 42 RBI, with his lowest OPS since his rookie year with .767.

Recently, Guerrero has been moved to the cleanup spot by John Schneider in hopes of giving him a spark at the plate. Unfortunately, results have been underwhelming, as in nine such games, he has hit close to .200, with an OPS around .500, with no runs, no home runs, and just two runs batted in to show for it. He certainly hasn’t been flourishing in the spot, so not sure how much the Jays should experiment with him any longer in that important spot in the lineup.

If one could recall, despite his hitting prowess, even Bo Bichette was in somewhat of a slump during the 2022 season when he was eventually moved to the fifth and sixth slots in the lineup for a while. Afterwards gaining some momentum and traction in turning around his hitting, he moved back to his usual second or third spots higher in the batting order and has not looked back since. So as much as it may hurt his ego a bit, perhaps a similar type of move down the batting order can be done with Guerrero to jumpstart his offensive power again. Either that or have Bichette hit behind Guerrero to provide protection to increase the chances of Guerrero seeing good pitches to hit. Anything is worth a shot to finally get Vladdy going again which the Jays desperately need before it’s too late.

3. Does Kevin Kiermaier need more days off?

With many other Jays struggling recently in producing offence, one that has flown under the radar because he had been doing so well all season is Kiermaier. People may not have realized, but ever since he left the game with lower back discomfort after two outfield throws in a game against the Minnesota Twins back on May 27th, he hasn’t been the same. Adding to that was also a left wrist contusion that he suffered on June 8th in a game against the Houston Astros on a pitch from Astros’ starter Framber Valdez.

Since May 27th, Kiermaier is hitting a paltry .143, with an OPS of .426, with only seven runs scored, one double, one triple, two RBI, three stolen bases, four walks and 12 strikeouts over 20 games played. This is a far cry from his All Star-like output he was providing at the beginning of the season, in addition to being well below his usual career standards as well.

Perhaps Kiermaier, who has had a history of injuries, hasn’t fully healed from the above aforementioned injuries he had suffered during the past month. In such case, as much as Kiermaier wants to be a true warrior and play through minor ailments to continue to provide the dynamic defense for the Jays, they should be wise in giving him the necessary time off in the long-term picture to get him back to form, as many saw with George Springer for the past couple of years how playing through minor injuries significantly affected his offensive output as a result. If no IL stint is needed, then maybe give him a few more days off and have the backup outfielder in for a few games to give him the much needed rest to get him back to 100%.

4. What to do with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal?

At the beginning of the season, Schneider employed a rotational system at second base between Whit Merrifield, Biggio and Espinal with regards to playing time, with Merrifield and Biggio getting some spot starts in the outfield when needed as well. Now three months into the season, it has become evident that Merrifield has secured his spot as an everyday player in the lineup, and for the month of June, has seen his workload at second base increase to over two-thirds of his starts.

As a result, this has left both Biggio and Espinal as reserve bench players for pretty much the past month, with the occasional spot starts in the field as needed. With Biggio currently in his fifth year in the organization, along with Espinal coming off a year in which he was even selected to the All-Star game, both players definitely believe they are more than capable being an everyday MLB starter. However, with playing time becoming more and more limited in the Jays’ lineup, along with their production being below standards and thus not warranting them a spot in the day-to-day lineup so far this year, should the Jays start thinking about the future on what to do with these two once promising players?

As much as the Jays prefer to keep both Biggio and Espinal as backup utilityman on the ballclub for flexibility, the best way to resolve the issue is eventually dealing at least one (or both) of them to obtain back assets that would help the ballclub, and promote potentially MLB-ready prospects in Addison Barger and/or Otto Lopez who may be more willing to fill the role of part-time duty at this stage in their careers. At the same time, Biggio and/or Espinal would finally get back their starting time with a brand new club with a fresh start. Something will need to be done soon so that everyone can benefit and be happy in the long run.

5. Are Adam Cimber’s nine lives finally running out?

Back in 2021, when the Jays’ bullpen was disastrous beyond belief, with games being blown left and right by the likes of Tyler Chatwood and Rafael Dolis, Adam Cimber was acquired from the Miami Marlins to help stabilize their late inning pitching woes. In doing so, Cimber became a key member in the Jays’ revamped bullpen, leading them back into contention and securing many victories that would have been blown earlier in the season. He was so good that he remained a key cog during the 2022 season for the Jays as well, this time helping them successfully to get into the playoffs for the second time in three years.

However, 2023 has been a totally different story for Cimber. After starting off the season on a solid run, this year quickly morphed into a nightmare for him. After two poor outings near the end of April, followed by his month-long absence due to a right rhomboid strain, he is currently a shell of his former self. In particular, he has surrendered runs in four of his past five outings, leading to his present stats line of 7.40 ERA, 1.548 WHIP, 56 ERA+, 17 earned runs, six home runs, seven walk, 12 strikeouts in only 20.2 innings pitched.

Should the Jays keep rolling him out with hopes he would eventually work things out like how Trevor Richards has been able to turn things around? Or will he continue to struggle like Yimi García and the recently DFA’d Anthony Bass? From hindsight, given how much he had helped the club in previous years, one would believe he should get a longer leash to figure things out, but as of now, he is not helping the ballclub at all. It may be harsh for someone who just had a recent addition to his family, but one important thing of note is that Cimber still has minor league options, so perhaps a stint in the minors can potentially help him find his game again, and at the same time, not have to worry about any of his poor outings having any adverse effects on the team as he works things out for the near future.

6. Are the Blue Jays buyers or sellers at the deadline?

As mentioned, with a favorable schedule coming up for the Jays, hopefully they will have some sort of success or a potential winning streak to help firmly secure their position as deadline buyers for 2023. If that is the case, what area/position should they pursue for help? Around the diamond and in the field, every position appears to be filled with an everyday MLB player that one wouldn’t deal away unless the player coming in is substantially better than what they currently have. Hence the focus should be on Jays’ pitching, which currently lacks a fifth starter along with a decent-but-not-great bullpen that could use an arm or two as well.

No one from the Jays’ current 26-man roster that they would be willing to deal (i.e. Espinal, Biggio, Clement, García) would be able to bring in what the Jays will be looking for, leaving most likely their prospects as their main source of assets to be used in any potential trades. If they do eventually pursue the trade route for pitching, look for certain bullpen arms to be DFA’d or sent to the minors to make room for such transactions. With the current Jays’ offence struggling to score runs at times, it may be more crucial to get valuable arms to bolster their pitching sooner than later to help make a difference in close games right now.

However, if the Jays go on an unexpected horrendous run in the coming week or so, moving them more towards the “seller” category, it would be to their best interest to help preserve the health of key players such as Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in the coming weeks and manage their playing time accordingly to ensure they could bring back valuable assets in return at the deadline. But let’s hope that does not happen and that the Jays can surprise us with a torrid winning streak to put away any of our doubts and worries.

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