5 sluggers that might pique the Blue Jays' interest in this year's MLB Draft

The weather is getting warmer and that means it's almost time for MLB Draft season. This year the Blue Jays have their first selection at pick No. 20 in the first round and the draft class will likely leave them at a crossroads at their pick. Widely considered a weaker draft class due to deficiencies in up the middle hitting talent (particularly on the high school end) and polished starters, the Jays are potentially poised to grab a big bat.

Given the state of the Jays offense, it's easy to suggest that they need to draft a big hitter. However, I never advocate drafting for need in baseball. Always take the best player at the best cost for any given pick. Due to the years of development time in the minors and how quickly MLB rosters turn over, having too many good players at one position is rarely a significant issue. In the event that you have a build-up of talented players at one position, there are 29 teams to find fair value in a trade with. With all that being said, there is a different reason to believe that the Jays should draft a hitter early this year. Young pitchers just can't seem to stay healthy.

To enter the year, we at Jays Journal ranked 5 pitchers in the Blue Jays top 11 prospects. Since then, 4/5 of those pitchers have hit the injured list with significant injuries. And this isn't just the Blue Jays struggling to keep pitchers healthy but all of baseball. With the amount of unpredictability surrounding pitching right now, is it worth investing high draft capital in? Pitching is incredibly important and it always will be but the risk might scare the Blue Jays and other teams away early this draft. It's not hard to vision a strategy of targeting bats early and then going heavy on high upside but risky pitchers in the middle rounds.

Additionally, this isn't a great class to draft pitching, especially where the Blue Jays are picking. There's 3 pitchers that have separated themselves at the top of the class: Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, and Trey Yesavage. It's unlikely that any of the 3 make it to the Blue Jays pick. Beyond that, there's a vast middle tier of options that are talented but imperfect and don't jump out as "must picks" at #20.

Given all this, I'm taking a look at 5 hitters that I think are realistic options for the Jays at pick #20.

Tommy White (LSU)
21 y.o / RHH / 3B/1B

"Tommy Tanks" helped anchor a national championship winning lineup in the Bayou last year and although he hasn't quite kept up his incredible production, he has an enviable blend of contact and power. #20 is starting to look more and more like his range and MLB Pipeline sent him to the Jays in their recent mock draft.

White offers power, production, and winning pedigree to a ballclub that has been lacking in all of those areas in recent years. His electric bat speed, raw strength, and knack for the barrel has allowed him to be one of college baseball's most proficient home run hitters and he's shown the ability to hit it out foul pole to foul pole.

White is also rarely beat in the zone, he's quick to a fastball and covers other pitches well. A slugger with this little swing-and-miss isn't often seen and it's part of what makes him exciting. The problem has been his approach. White loves to swing early in the count which has helped him keep his strikeout numbers low but it's also affecting his walk numbers. His tendency to chase has rarely hindered him in college but more advanced pitchers will take advantage of that and will be able to get him whiffing more and also limit is ability to do damage consistently.

White has shown some improvement in the plate discipline department this season. His walk rate is up to the point where he's walking as much as he is striking out. However, the ticked up discipline has come with a bit worse overall production compared to last year. If he can find a good balance between the two approaches with pro instruction, he'll likely keep mashing at the next level.

Mashing is what White will have to do to be a successful big leaguer. He's limited athletically at third base and projects as a first baseman at the next level. The offensive bar at first base is a steep one especially for right handed hitters like White. There's optimistic angles on a pick like this given his lofty offensive potential but it's also not difficult to pick out areas of concern. Regardless, it appears that White may end up in the mix and that makes him worth covering.

Billy Amick (Tennessee)
21 y.o / RHH / 3B

Amick has largely repeated his 2023 campaign in which he was one of the best hitters in the country. He has a simple but thunderous operation that results in him launching balls in the air to all fields. It's the kind of power profile scouts dream of.

Amick makes enough contact and has managed very respectable strikeout rates throughout his college career. As far as his track record with wood goes, it helps that he tore up the Cape Cod league last summer. Though it's worth noting his 2022 sample wasn't nearly as strong there. His swing decisions leave a bit to be desired and like White, Amick can be over-aggressive at times.

Also similar to White, Amick is seen as a fringe fit at third base long term by many scouts. He has looked better there this year and there are some that are convinced he has a good shot to stick there long term. Playing third base would make his offensive package significantly more enticing. Right now he's behind the other names on this list but his power package and track record in a strong conference does grab my attention as one worth watching.

PJ Morlando (Summerville, High School)
19 y.o / LHH / 1B/OF

Morlando entered the year as the consensus top pure hitting prospect in this year's prep class. Now in May, it's not hard to see him falling out of the first round altogether. Much of that fall has to do with the industry's reluctance to invest significant draft capital in a first baseman out of high school. Triston Casas and the Rays' Xavier Isaac are the only real examples dating back to 2018. Projecting offense from high schoolers is very difficult and at a position like first base there's really no margin for error.

Morlando's bat has the chance to be pretty special though. He has a rare blend of hit tool and raw power that gives him arguably the highest offensive ceiling in the prep class. Morlando's swing is powerful and effective which highlights his immense bat speed. He has shown the ability to get to his power in games. The problem this spring has been seeing pitches to hit. Morlando has been getting walked constantly, partially a result of his strong plate discipline and partially because high school pitchers want nothing to do with him. He even had a stretch where he was intentionally walked 8 times in a row.

It's shaping up like Morlando will be available at pick No. 20. If the Jays want to take a player underslot and invest more money in their middle round picks, Morlando is a viable option. He'd add significant offensive pedigree to a system that is currently lacking it.

Walker Janek (Sam Houston State)
21 y.o / RHH / C

You probably don't think of a catcher when you think of a slugger but Janek has some serious juice with a shot to stick behind the plate long term. The Blue Jays system happens to be very thin on catching talent so there's also a fit here (though I mentioned previously that fit should not be a leading factor in a first round pick).

Janek is posting by far and away the best offensive season of his college career and that comes on the back of a good showing in the Cape Cod league. He has pretty good contact skills and routinely gets the ball up and out, especially to his pull side. Janek shows an understanding of the zone but his pitch recognition and production against spin could stand to improve. There's plenty of offensive firepower to work with here and the Jays could try and lean on his pull side power like they did with Danny Jansen.

Defensively, Janek has all the tools to be a big league catcher. He moves well, has shown solid receiving skills, and has the athleticism and arm strength to keep runners honest on the basepaths. He's projecting to be available at pick No. 20 and might be an underslot option.