5 current (and former) Blue Jays prospects that have fallen from grace

When it comes to prospects within a sports organization, they can be a hit or miss. Some may surprise and make the giant leap to the main stage unexpectedly, whereas others may have shown great potential, but have trouble fulfilling it to become a successful impact player. Here, we take a look at five Toronto Blue Jays prospects that have fallen from grace from their initial hype.

Austin Martin

Back in 2020, the Jays were thought to have the steal of the draft when they selected Austin Martin fifth overall in the first round of the 2020 MLB Draft. Classified as the best pure hitter in the draft, many sources had Martin projected going higher in the draft, potentially even second overall behind first overall pick Spencer Torkelson. Very quickly, Martin became the second highest ranked prospect in the Jays system from his credentials.

However, with the Jays in desperate need of a front-end starter to solidify their rotation for the pennant run in 2021, Martin, who was only having an average year with the Jays’ Double-A affiliate New Hampshire Fisher Cats, was dealt along with Simeon Woods-Richardson for Minnesota Twins ace José Berríos. In one and a half seasons with the Twins’ minor league affiliates, Martin hasn’t been able to replicate his dominance and consistent production shown from his college years, hitting just close to .250 with only five homers and 54 RBI over 129 games, and have now even fallen out of the Twins’ top ten prospects rankings.

He was hoping to get off to a better start for 2023, but he has been shut down since March with an UCL sprain, which is usually a precursor to Tommy John surgery. There has been no recent update yet on his current situation, but either way, it appears to be a long road ahead for Martin to recovery and to regain his hitting prowess that he once had.

Orelvis Martinez

The Jays signed international prospect Orelvis Martinez out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018 to a $3.5 million deal. He has been a mainstay in being a highly ranked prospect in the Jays system since 2020, ranking in the top six ever since. Martinez had a breakout year in 2021 with the Jays Single-A affiliate Dunedin Blue Jays, but some struggles began to surface after being promoted to High-A affiliate Vancouver Canadians.

The struggles and flaws continued as Martinez moved up to Double-A in 2022, as he was beginning to develop into a “three true outcomes” hitter, similar to what former MLB players Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds were notorious for. His power numbers were there, with 30 home runs and 76 RBI in just 118 games, but he was striking out at a high rate (over 32%) and hitting close to the Mendoza line. He has gotten off to an even worse start for 2023, currently hitting .093 with four home runs and 15 RBI with 20 strikeouts in just 75 at-bats.

Despite still currently ranked in the top five for Blue Jays prospects, Martinez may no longer be a sure bet to make the major leagues ahead of schedule. He was once projected to be the Jays third baseman of the future, but unless he starts working on getting his hitting approach and mechanics fixed, it may be a tough road ahead for him to even crack the Triple-A affiliate Buffalo Bisons roster.

Jordan Groshans

Jordan Groshans was a former first round pick by the Jays, selected 12th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. He was highly regarded in his draft year and was expected to be the potential heir to the Jays’ third base position in due time. After a stellar season in the Jays’ Rookie affiliates in 2018, he was able to move up one minor league level through the organization in each of the following three active seasons. He was ranked as high as in the top three of the Jays’ top prospects in 2020 and 2021. However, his production appeared to have reach a plateau after being promoted to the Buffalo Bisons.

In 2022, Groshans was underachieving compared to his standards and his stock plummeted quite a bit as he was hitting just .250 with only one home run and 24 RBI through 67 games with Buffalo. Eventually, he was deemed expendable and was traded at the 2022 trade deadline to the Miami Marlins for Zach Pop and Anthony Bass, as the Jays were looking to shore up their bullpen for a postseason run. Despite getting some big league time with the Marlins in the latter parts of 2022 after the trade, once again Groshans finds himself back in the minors for 2023 and is currently struggling with a .185 average, .562 OPS, with one home run and 16 RBI in 30 games.

Groshans has now fallen to tenth in the rankings for Marlins’ top prospects in 2023. He always had the potential, but may never seem to provide the solid production expected from a first-rounder. 

Logan Warmoth

As another former first round draft pick by the Jays, this time from the 2017 MLB Draft, Logan Warmoth joined the Jays’ organization with high expectations after posting solid numbers in college with North Carolina. Ranked as high as in the top five for Jays’ top prospects in 2018, he was expected to be part of the next wave of youngsters coming up in the Jays’ system at the time, along with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, his progression through the minor league system turned out to be a lot slower than anticipated while he struggled with a high strikeout rate. As a result, many other prospects surpassed him on the depth chart over the years, including two players that were a part of this list, Groshans and Martinez.

As primarily a shortstop and occasional second baseman, Warmoth reinvented himself as an outfielder in 2021, hoping to increase his opportunities to eventually crack the Jays’ big league roster as a utilityman or fourth outfielder. But even there, he was unfortunately overtaken by the likes of prospects Kevin Smith and Otto Lopez. After falling further down the pecking order in the Jays’ organization, he is now currently with the Seattle Mariners’ Double-A affiliate for 2023 via the MiLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. With 24 games under his belt for the season, he has hit .260 with one home run, 11 RBI and 11 stolen bases. He may no longer have star potential, but he hopes maybe one day he will still get his chance for a crack at the big leagues.