5 Blue Jays with the most to prove in 2024

It's been said once or twice (or 100 times) before, but the Toronto Blue Jays underachieved in 2023. Yes, it's impressive they qualified for the playoffs for the third time in four seasons, but there was something unsatisfying and disappointing about the year in general.

Meekly surrendering in the wild card round to the Twins was merely the exclamation mark, on a season when the Blue Jays did not play up to their talent level. This was particularly highlighted by a potent offence being decidedly average, at least for them.

Of course not everyone unperformed this past season, but there were still far too many players who didn't reach what they are capable of. Along these lines, we look at the five Blue Jays players with the most to prove in 2024:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Casual observers could be forgiven for asking why Vladmir Guerrero Jr. is on this list. After all, this is a player who led the Blue Jays in home runs, RBI, walks and OBP in 2023.

However, this actually alludes to the reality Guerrero still underachieved this past season. In fact, in many ways he is the poster child for how underwhelming the lineup was as a collective.

Red Sox legend Manny Ramirez is often associated with the quote -- and we're paraphrasing here -- of 'Manny see ball, Manny hit ball'. While we won't quite use the same description for Guerrero, from early on scouts raved about his natural and exceptional hitting ability.

And yet we're at a point now, where some people are beginning to wonder if the three-time All-Star is ever truly going to reach his full potential. Although we appreciate this may sound a little off-base (no pun intended), given he is still only 24 years of age.

Contributing towards this developing narrative, is Guerror's sensational season in 2021. This was the year when he elevated his game to another level, as everything seemed to just click.

The Montreal, Quebec native led the Majors in home runs and runs, while also pacing the AL in OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+. He won his first Silver Slugger Award, was named to the All-MLB First Team and finished second in voting for the AL MVP.

The sky seemed the limit for Guerrero, and by extension the Blue Jays. Instead, after two subsequent seasons which would have been considered excellent for the majority of players, questions are now being asked.

Rather than 2021 being a sign of things to come for the 2022 Gold Glove Award winner, it's now being suggested it might have been the exception rather the rule. With him also set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2025 season, it's time to step up and prove his worth in both a figurative and literal sense.

Alejandro Kirk

When it comes to having something to prove next season, in fairness to Alejandro Kirk, not all of this is on him. The Blue Jays increased the pressure on both the player and the organisation itself, with their previous decision to trade away top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno.

Moreno went on to have a breakout year in 2023, as he produced a slash line of .284/.339/.408 and .747 OPS in 111 games. He also did his part come playoff time, helping the Arizona Diamondbacks make it all the way to the World Series.

Back to Kirk, he had his own breakout year back in 2022, with 14 homers, 63 RBI and 63 walks, contributing towards a .285/.372/.415 slash line and .786 OPS. As a result, he earned his first All-Star selection and inaugural Silver Slugger Award, arguably contributing towards the decision to move Moreno.

Unfortunately for everyone concerned, the 25-year-old took a step back this past season. He dropped down essentially across the board offensively, with eight home runs, 43 RBI, 42 walks, a .250/.334/.358 slash line and .692 OPS.

It didn't help that these numbers also compared unfavorably to what Moreno was doing in Arizona, with critics arguing the Blue Jays got rid of the wrong catcher. It should be noted Kirk was third-best with a 1.7 dWAR among all Major League catchers, but even here he trailed behind Moreno, who led the way with a 3.1 dWAR.

Unsurprisingly, president Mark Shapiro still believes the trade was a good one. (We'll be getting to the other crucial part of the Blue Jays' deal with the Diamondbacks in due course.) As relayed by Sportsnet, Shapiro said; "You can't evaluate a trade in the short term. You've got to give it four or five years, to understand whether a trade was effective or not."

How much fans and baseball media alike may want to get on board with Shaprio's take, is open to debate. Regardless, what we do know is that Kirk -- unfairly also burdened with being in tandem with an injury-prone Danny Jansen -- needs to be more consistent in 2024.

Daulton Varsho

Along with Kirk, Daulton Varsho is the other player feeling a pressure which is outside of his control. That's because he's the player the Blue Jays believed was worthy of giving up Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for.

Before we look at the pressure aspect further though, it's worth considering where Varsho excelled. More specifically on defence, which you can argue he played better than anyone else in the Majors during 2023.

This was best highlighted by the 27-year-old leading all players with 29 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). By extension, he helped the Blue Jays also lead the way as a team with 85 DRS, which was 17 ahead of the nearest competitor. (All statistics as per Fielding Bible.)

In addition, as per ESPN, Varsho ranked second in all of baseball with a 2.8 dWAR, ironically only behind Moreno's 3.1. He was also consistent and durable, with just one error all season while leading the Blue Jays in games played on defence.

Given all this, you can understand why there was an outcry when the 2017 second round draft pick was snubbed for a Gold Glove. As teammate Chris Bassitt put it, only baseball could be so stupid not to award one to a player who lead the league in DRS.

So with all this, why exactly do we consider Varsho to be under so much pressure next year? Simply put it comes down to his offence, or lack thereof, in 2023.

The Marshfield, Wisconsin native took a step back with his bat this past season, as he had his lowest slash line, OPS and OPS+ since his rookie year. And yet it wasn't all bad, as he was tied for third on the team in home runs, third in stolen bases and fifth in RBI.

The reality is that the increased pressure on Varsho to perform better offensively, simply comes down to how well the players he came in for, did during 2023 in Arizona. He does need to be better next year, but the reality is he almost has unfair expectations placed on him through no fault of his own.

Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal is more along the lines of Guerrero than Kirk and Varsho, in that the pressure on him is not impacted by any outside circumstances. Pure and simple, he disappointed this past season, albeit not to the same extent as Guerrero.

The 2023 campaign definitely represented a regression for Espinal. He was nothing like the player who a year earlier set single-season highs in hits, home runs, RBI and walks, and was selected to his first All-Star Game.

The 29-year-old was a major disappointment, as he had the worst batting average of his four-year career, as well as the lowest OPS and OPS+ since his rookie season. In addition, while not renowned for his power hitter, two home runs and 25 RBI is still not going to cut it.

It didn't help that Espinal also struggled for form defensively. He was moved all around the infield, but was unable to find form or stability at any one position.

As we've asked previously, this leads to the question of which version is closer to the real Santiago Espinal? Is it the one from 2022, or last year?

From out perspective, it's not as if the Dominican Republic native has suddenly become a terrible player overnight. In this respect -- at least offensively -- think back to how he finished this past season.

If there's anything to be encouraged about in his game, Espinal complied a .375 batting average across his final 51 at-bats of the 2023 season. This resulted in a 152 wRC+, six doubles, six runs driven in and four runs scored.

As such, there is a certain amount of confidence in Espinal's ability to rebound next year. Certainly Blue Jays fans will be hoping so, because he sure has a lot to prove to show his 2022 season wasn't a one-off flash in the pan.