4 positions the Blue Jays need to invest in during free agency

When the 2023 MLB season concludes, the Toronto Blue Jays are set to have five players enter free agency. This includes Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt, Jordan Hicks, and Hyun Jin Ryu. There could also possibly be up to three more players heading to free agency, as Yimi García has a player option, Chad Green has a club option, and Whit Merrifield has a mutual option. As a result, there’s a big potential for a lot of moving parts during the upcoming offseason for the ballclub.

It is essential that the Jays spend wisely to ensure that they can put out an optimal lineup on the field when the 2024 season starts. To do so, they must make critical yet important decisions with regards to which positions they need to invest in, and which positions they could settle with a more economical, internal option.

In terms of fielding positions that appear to be set in stone already, Bo Bichette will be at shortstop, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base, Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk at catcher, with Daulton Varsho and George Springer in two of the outfield positions. Starting pitching has four of the five slots filled with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos. The bullpen will likely be armed with the return of Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Trevor Richards, Génesis Cabrera and Erik Swanson.

With that in mind, here we will examine the four areas the Blue Jays will probably need to invest in during free agency to make certain that they can remain a competitive ballclub for the coming season and the near future.

1. Outfield

With the uncertainty surrounding whether or not either Kiermaier or Merrifield will return after this year, the Jays must keep their options open in terms of who will fill the void in the third outfield spot entering the 2024 season. Both Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider probably can’t take hold of the spot on a permanent basis, since they provide a better fit for the infield or the utilityman role. In addition, outside of top prospect Alan Roden who is currently playing in Double-A New Hampshire, the Jays do not have a MLB-ready player within their top 20 MLB prospects list that has the outfield position as their primary playing position.

As a result, either the Jays need to prepare to open the vault to retain one of Kiermaier or Merrifield, or they will need to find the solution externally via free agency. In the upcoming class, there are some intriguing options available, but none of them are bigger than Cody Bellinger. After all, Bellinger has resurrected his once-promising career with a huge bounce back season with the Chicago Cubs this year. He has definitely regained some of his dominant MVP form back in 2019, as for the season, he has hit .320 with a .916 OPS, along with 84 runs scored, 24 doubles, 24 home runs, 86 RBI and a career-best 19 stolen bases in just 110 games played. At the young age of 28 with plenty left in the tank, he will be definitely be looking for a big, long-term deal, so it could become quite pricey for the Jays if they choose to pursue that route.

Otherwise, some interesting fallback options include former Jay Teoscar Hernández, Hunter Renfroe, and Adam Duvall. In addition, if they fulfill their opt-out clause, both Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto could be strong options as well. Whatever the case may be, the Jays will definitely need to invest in this area to maintain solid defence in the outfield, along with providing some necessary offensive punch at the same time.

2. Starting pitching

With the potential of Ryu leaving the Jays this upcoming offseason, along with the ambiguity of Alek Manoah’s situation with the organization, the Jays will need to look for a solid replacement for their starting pitching for 2024 to fill the remaining slot in the rotation. Free agency will certainly be the path to take, as the most-ready starting pitching prospects in their system, Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Barriera, probably won’t be ready for prime time until another year or so at least. In addition, the Jays don’t have a reliable arm currently that they could trust and thrust into the rotation directly from Triple-A Buffalo.

The absolute #1 option would no doubt be Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels. However, with his current injury issue with his elbow, along with the unknown course of action he will choose for his treatment, it could ultimately impact his ability to pitch effectively or even at all in the upcoming season and beyond. Not only that, his expected contract would most likely deplete all of the Jays resources in one shot, leaving practically nothing left to address other positional needs.

So the more likely scenario for the Jays would be to go after the next tier of starting pitchers. Blake Snell would be a great option, as the former Cy Young winner has had a strong season with the underachieving San Diego Padres. In 28 starts, he has compiled a 12-9 record with a league-leading 2.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, with 201 strikeouts in just 155 innings pitched. His only main flaw had been his abnormally high number of walks given up so far this year with 89. Alternatively, there’s intriguing options including Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito, and perhaps even Marcus Stroman, if he executes his opt-out clause with the Cubs. The Jays will definitely have plenty of options that they can explore, but in any case, they will probably need to pay up to get back quality in return.

3. Relief pitching

With the bullpen being one of the Jays’ strengths in 2023, they could potentially lose up to three key members to free agency at the end of the season. It is highly likely that the Jays will pick up the option with Green, since they invested in a two-year deal with him in the first place with full knowledge that he would be out for most of 2023, so they are not going to give up on him after just one month of regular season action. On the other hand, both Hicks and García would be question marks on whether or not they will return to the ballclub.

The Jays do have potential internal solutions with Bowden Francis having a fine year so far with the big league club, along with others like Nate Pearson and Jay Jackson. But time and time again, a strong bullpen has proven to be a key ingredient for any playoff contender. So the Jays shouldn’t shy away from trying to grab a dominant reliever or two from the free agent market.

Among the available relievers, obviously Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson head the strong free agent class entering this offseason, along with solid effective options in José Alvarado and Matt Moore. If Hicks doesn’t end up staying with the Jays, pursuing one of the closer-type pitchers would give them the adequate replacement. If García is the one leaving, then Alvarado or Moore would be ideal candidates to fill his role. Most importantly, if the Jays wish to invest in multiple positional upgrades, they should probably stay away from Hader. That is because as one of the top relievers in the game right now, he is most likely to create a bidding war among teams.

On the bubble

There are actually two more positions that the Jays need to think over carefully going forward: the second and third base positions on the team. The main reason is because for the upcoming free agent class, the availability of quality players for both positions is severely limited. So even if the Jays wanted to splurge in free agency to upgrade those positions, the supply isn’t even there to choose from. As a result, they essentially have only two viable options: either resort to an internal solution, or spend big on re-signing one of the current team members.

With the recent fine play of both Biggio and Santiago Espinal, along with the emergence of Davis Schneider in recent weeks, perhaps starting the 2024 season with a rotational system between the three for the two infield spots could essentially work out. Either that or they could also try out unknown commodities in both top prospects Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger, as they appear hungry and MLB-ready as they await their chance.

But if those internal options don’t instil any confidence in Jays’ management, they may be forced at their hand to do the best they can to retain both Merrifield and Chapman with expensive deals. In doing so, it can potentially work out or blow up in their faces depending on the outcome, as both are already on the wrong side of 30 in their careers. Therefore, it is more likely that they will lean towards the former option rather than the latter, leaving enough resources for them to address the other four important positional needs mentioned above.

Nevertheless, for the Jays to maintain success and field a strong and competitive team right now and the near future, it is a dire must that they invest, but spend wisely in the upcoming free agency. By doing so, it can keep the Jays’ contention window open a lot longer, and hopefully giving them the best chance possible to capture the World Series championship once again for the first time in over three decades.