4 offseason decisions the Blue Jays are paying for right now

After getting a taste of playoff action this past season, albeit for only two games, the Toronto Blue Jays looked for ways to help improve the team during the 2022-23 offseason to make them that much more competitive for the coming 2023 season. Among them were moves that have helped the team so far this year, as well as some that have definitely put the team in a bind at times, ultimately affecting their performance and eventual outcomes.

For those moves that have worked, replacing the departing Ross Stripling with Chris Bassitt was a great move by Jays’ GM Ross Atkins, as Bassitt has provided the stability needed for their starting rotation while Stripling has been struggling with the San Francisco Giants for the majority of the season thus far. In addition, to improve the defensive play of the ballclub that was often at times nerve wracking the previous year, defensive stalwarts Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier were brought in to be a part of the Jays’ revamped outfield to help limit opposition damage due to bad reads/routes and errors. In doing so, they have done quite well in that category, being in the upper echelon of the league with respect to DRS and errors committed as a whole. Also, Erik Swanson has definitely been a solid addition to the relief corps.

However, the overall change in the makeup of the ballclub, along with some apparent issues that weren’t seriously addressed during the offseason, has affected other aspects of the team with respect to their performance and success. Here, we take a closer look at four offseason decisions that has unfortunately had a significant effect on the current squad, for better or for worse, limiting their utmost potential.

1. Trading offence for defence

As mentioned previously, one of the key decisions by the Jays’ front office this past offseason was to change the team to become more defensively-minded, believing that preventing runs ultimately may be more important than scoring runs, adapting to the mindset that defence wins championships. The additions of Varsho and Kiermaier have definitely been great and have helped the club tremendously, but the Jays also gave up two solid, offensively-minded run producers in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernández in the process. In doing so, the Jays currently rank 11th in runs scored, 16th in home runs, and 13th in RBI in all of MLB.

Looking at the performances of both former Jays in 2023, Gurriel has hit .276, with an OPS of .815, OPS+ of 121, with 32 runs scored, 11 home runs and 44 RBI, while Hernández has popped a .256 batting average, .750 OPS, 112 OPS+, to go along with 33 runs scored, 14 home runs and 43 RBI. For a Blue Jays ballclub that has been struggling at times this season with run production, those numbers would definitely be a warm welcome to the run-hungry team.

Moreover, it has been well-documented many times this season that the Jays have had their troubles with cashing in runners in scoring position. It may hurt to know that under the same RISP situation, Gurriel has hit .290, with an OPS of .909, four home runs and 33 RBI, whereas Hernández has done just as well or even better with a .351 average, .952 OPS, three home runs, 31 RBI, and two sacrifice flies. One could never quantify how many runs the Jays’ defence have saved this year that won them ballgames versus how many runs they didn’t score in the clutch that lost them ballgames. But knowing that providing consistent offensive production and performing in the clutch with RISP has been the team’s Achilles’ heel all season, having some extra power and solid run production like how Gurriel and Hernández have been coming through with their new clubs certainly leaves a lot to be desired.

3. Trading away Gabriel Moreno

Many Jays’ fans have expressed their frustration and their displeasure during the offseason when the Jays traded away their top prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks, as many believed he could be the next Pudge Rodriguez or Salvador Perez, providing that rare strong offensive impact from the catching position. However, many have failed to also recognize his strong defensive side of his game, which can be at times even more impressive than his offensive potential.

For the season, Moreno has provided strong and steady defence for the Diamondbacks, having thrown out 14 of 30 potential basestealers (47% success rate), to go along with committing only one passed ball and one error all season, in addition to allowing ZERO wild pitches to date in 56 games played behind the plate. Opposing runners definitely haven’t had the freedom to roam the bases with Moreno at the guard. On the other hand for the Jays, the tandem of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have combined together to throw out only 12 of 77 baserunners (15.6% success rate), with seven errors, one passed ball, and 17 wild pitches over 72 games started behind the plate. Their difference in defensive abilities was expected, but it wasn’t expected to be that big of a difference.

By allowing this many baserunners to patrol the bases and advancing at will does not bode well for the Jays, and who knows how many games they have lost because of it without going even deeper into the stats. It doesn’t matter how much Jansen and Kirk can provide offensively to help make up for the difference, but by having runners constantly getting into prime scoring positions, it will not be a recipe for success in the long run, making the loss of Moreno potentially an even harder pill to swallow.

4. Renovating Rogers Centre

The Jays had decided it was time their ballpark needed a facelift, especially when it was clear they were not going to get a new ballpark built for them any time in the near future. As a result, during the past offseason, they began their $300 million renovation project on their Rogers Centre home that was to be completed in phases over the coming years. One of the main aspects of the project involved the complete redesign of the outfield wall and dimensions and the bullpen area, along with creating “outfield districts” in the stands to enhance fan experience.

These changes definitely brought new excitement and pleasure for Jays fans, providing new amenities and views as part of the new ballpark experience. However, for some reason, maybe it has been the change in aerodynamics in the stadium as a result of the renovations, or maybe it has been the altered sightlines for the batter when facing the outfield while at the plate, the once hitter-friendly ballpark known for being a long ball haven has become anything but so far this year for the Blue Jays.

Over the years, the Jays generally have hit more home runs at home than away on the road for the past few decades. Normalizing the number of home and away games they have played to date, they are currently hitting about 1.2 times as many home runs on the road, compared to that at home, and they are currently on pace to hit only 81 home runs at home all season, which would be their lowest accumulated total over a 162-game schedule in over 15 years. With the Jays’ offence often struggling at times this year to generate runs, taking away one of their main advantages that they had over the years has placed more burden on them in coming through in the clutch, which unfortunately, as mentioned above, hasn’t been working at all.

These offseason decisions obviously hasn’t automatically made or broken the Jays’ season. But they have certainly provided the team with extra challenges to overcome as they hope to maintain their playoff aspirations for this year and ultimately the years beyond.