4 offseason decisions the Blue Jays are paying for right now

1. Trading offence for defence

As mentioned previously, one of the key decisions by the Jays’ front office this past offseason was to change the team to become more defensively-minded, believing that preventing runs ultimately may be more important than scoring runs, adapting to the mindset that defence wins championships. The additions of Varsho and Kiermaier have definitely been great and have helped the club tremendously, but the Jays also gave up two solid, offensively-minded run producers in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernández in the process. In doing so, the Jays currently rank 11th in runs scored, 16th in home runs, and 13th in RBI in all of MLB.

Looking at the performances of both former Jays in 2023, Gurriel has hit .276, with an OPS of .815, OPS+ of 121, with 32 runs scored, 11 home runs and 44 RBI, while Hernández has popped a .256 batting average, .750 OPS, 112 OPS+, to go along with 33 runs scored, 14 home runs and 43 RBI. For a Blue Jays ballclub that has been struggling at times this season with run production, those numbers would definitely be a warm welcome to the run-hungry team.

Moreover, it has been well-documented many times this season that the Jays have had their troubles with cashing in runners in scoring position. It may hurt to know that under the same RISP situation, Gurriel has hit .290, with an OPS of .909, four home runs and 33 RBI, whereas Hernández has done just as well or even better with a .351 average, .952 OPS, three home runs, 31 RBI, and two sacrifice flies. One could never quantify how many runs the Jays’ defence have saved this year that won them ballgames versus how many runs they didn’t score in the clutch that lost them ballgames. But knowing that providing consistent offensive production and performing in the clutch with RISP has been the team’s Achilles’ heel all season, having some extra power and solid run production like how Gurriel and Hernández have been coming through with their new clubs certainly leaves a lot to be desired.

2. Starting pitching depth

When the Jays signed Chris Bassitt to replace Stripling during the offseason, it gave the club a strong starting five of Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos, and Yusei Kikuchi, with each having the potential to be a middle-to-front-end of the rotation starter. The Jays believed that their set rotation alone could carry them to success for the 2023 season, without taking into consideration factors such as potential injuries and underperformances by their starters, as they had not pondered about adding adequate starting pitching depth as insurance.

They did have a minor trade transaction with the Pittsburgh Pirates, obtaining Zach Thompson for Chavez Young, but that was about it. Both Thompson and Mitch White were expected to be the ones filling in the holes in the rotation if any unexpected situation arose. But when Manoah was optioned to minors back in early June due to his struggles, the Jays outrighted Thompson to Buffalo instead, and White was only reinstated to the roster later in June as a long man for their bullpen, leaving the Jays with a four-man rotation even as we speak.

There currently isn’t any candidate that the Jays could trust from their minor league system that they could insert directly into the rotation with confidence to replace Manoah, and this fault can be put on the shoulders of GM Atkins for not adequately providing the team with the necessary pitching depth needed to sustain a solid starting rotation if any adversity was met. As a result, the Jays have been forced to utilize a bullpen day every time the fifth rotation spot came up, which could have big repercussions as the season wears on.

3. Trading away Gabriel Moreno

Many Jays’ fans have expressed their frustration and their displeasure during the offseason when the Jays traded away their top prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks, as many believed he could be the next Pudge Rodriguez or Salvador Perez, providing that rare strong offensive impact from the catching position. However, many have failed to also recognize his strong defensive side of his game, which can be at times even more impressive than his offensive potential.

For the season, Moreno has provided strong and steady defence for the Diamondbacks, having thrown out 14 of 30 potential basestealers (47% success rate), to go along with committing only one passed ball and one error all season, in addition to allowing ZERO wild pitches to date in 56 games played behind the plate. Opposing runners definitely haven’t had the freedom to roam the bases with Moreno at the guard. On the other hand for the Jays, the tandem of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have combined together to throw out only 12 of 77 baserunners (15.6% success rate), with seven errors, one passed ball, and 17 wild pitches over 72 games started behind the plate. Their difference in defensive abilities was expected, but it wasn’t expected to be that big of a difference.

By allowing this many baserunners to patrol the bases and advancing at will does not bode well for the Jays, and who knows how many games they have lost because of it without going even deeper into the stats. It doesn’t matter how much Jansen and Kirk can provide offensively to help make up for the difference, but by having runners constantly getting into prime scoring positions, it will not be a recipe for success in the long run, making the loss of Moreno potentially an even harder pill to swallow.

4. Renovating Rogers Centre

The Jays had decided it was time their ballpark needed a facelift, especially when it was clear they were not going to get a new ballpark built for them any time in the near future. As a result, during the past offseason, they began their $300 million renovation project on their Rogers Centre home that was to be completed in phases over the coming years. One of the main aspects of the project involved the complete redesign of the outfield wall and dimensions and the bullpen area, along with creating “outfield districts” in the stands to enhance fan experience.

These changes definitely brought new excitement and pleasure for Jays fans, providing new amenities and views as part of the new ballpark experience. However, for some reason, maybe it has been the change in aerodynamics in the stadium as a result of the renovations, or maybe it has been the altered sightlines for the batter when facing the outfield while at the plate, the once hitter-friendly ballpark known for being a long ball haven has become anything but so far this year for the Blue Jays.

Over the years, the Jays generally have hit more home runs at home than away on the road for the past few decades. Normalizing the number of home and away games they have played to date, they are currently hitting about 1.2 times as many home runs on the road, compared to that at home, and they are currently on pace to hit only 81 home runs at home all season, which would be their lowest accumulated total over a 162-game schedule in over 15 years. With the Jays’ offence often struggling at times this year to generate runs, taking away one of their main advantages that they had over the years has placed more burden on them in coming through in the clutch, which unfortunately, as mentioned above, hasn’t been working at all.

These offseason decisions obviously hasn’t automatically made or broken the Jays’ season. But they have certainly provided the team with extra challenges to overcome as they hope to maintain their playoff aspirations for this year and ultimately the years beyond.